4 ms·
"I suspect his presence is vastly less important. The design team with Ives, operation team with Cook, etc. know what's making things work. He's been "absent" a
by garyrob 16y ago
"I suspect his presence is vastly less important. The design team with Ives, operation team with Cook, etc. know what's making things work. He's been "absent" a lot in the last few years, yet it's been the strongest period for the company - clearly, something works when he's not at his desk."
Jobs recruits great people, and provides the right ingredients to enable them to work at their best. And he has his own very prescient ideas, as well.
When Jobs leaves, Apple will do fine... for a while. Then one of the people he recruited will leave, then another, and eventually Apple will revert to the mean, where it is no different from another company. Apple's products will become less special, and it's stock price will drop.
There is no reason whatsoever to make any other prediction. Jobs is at the heart of why Apple is what it is. He is unique. It's not a coincidence that the same person had the vision, smarts, and grit to be able to successfully found Apple, and also had what it took to bring it back from the dead after a succession of other CEO's failed.
Or, let's say... he may not be unique, but the odds that Apple will end up with a similar person at its center after Jobs leaves are low.
Again, it will do fine for a few years. But I wouldn't make a long-term bet on it after that.
- mortenjorck 16y agoThe hardest post-Jobs question will not be "what would Steve do?" but rather "who would Steve hire?" The team Jobs has assembled that built the past decade of Apple knows and shares his vision for products. The real test will be retaining the culture through turnover.
- DLWormwood 16y agoThe problem with asking “Who would Steve hire?” is that the last time Steve picked a CEO, he brought in John Sculley to Apple, with his famous “sell soft drinks or change the world” pitch. And look at how that turned out… True, Jobs has wizened up since then, but he also hasn’t been tested with a true replacement assignment since. (There is no obvious “heir apparent” in Apple at this time, AFAIK.)
- JacobAldridge 16y ago"True, Jobs has wizened up since then" Not sure if that was a fruedian typo, but it made me laugh. wizened - shrivelled or wrinkled with age wised - become aware of or informed about something
- DLWormwood 16y agoDamn spell check got me…
- archgrove 16y agoUnless, of course, the people he's hired follow the same hiring practices, and train them in the same way. As the saying goes, A players hire A players (and in this case, one hopes A* players hire A players, then make them into A* s). I don't buy that companies are built around one person, and then revert to the mean - it's more about setting up a culture and following it. Does Google do well because Sergey is wandering the halls and jetting around the world shouting out inspiration? Or is it the culture that was created, covering it's many offices, that delivers the goods? If that is allowed to die, then yes - the company stagnates. But there's no reason to believe that the executive team can't keep it alive if they're as good as they should be. That's not to say that Steve's absence isn't a big deal - it's just not a "Dump your stock, it's all over" level deal.
- enjo 16y agoIt would be to me. Leadership isn't just a procses...it's a vision. It may very well be that somewhere inside of Apple there is someone equal to Steve Jobs in terms of vision, determination, and smarts. That's not likely, however. Companies like Apple fall off of their perch because you can't turn greatness into a process. It's much more innate than that. The grandparent is right. They'll be ok... for awhile. Soon they'll go the way of HP and IBM (and increasingly Microsoft). Not gone... just not what they once were.