4 ms·
"entry level jobs like fast food / picking crops / warehouses" These things are very hard to predict. We have a long history of such "automations" and the outc
by dalbasal 7y ago
"entry level jobs like fast food / picking crops / warehouses"
These things are very hard to predict. We have a long history of such "automations" and the outcomes have been often unpredictable. Effectively, "automation" is interchangeable with any labour saving tech. Production lines, tractors, etc.
Agriculture basically did shed jobs due to the green revolution and mechanisation. Fewer farmers grew the food and people moved to towns. You could argue that towns pulled agricultural workers in rather than automation pushing, but machines replaced people regardless.
Industrial manufacturing, OTOH, increased output and added jobs to the sector for hundreds of years despite labour saving "automation" progressing constantly.
It's only recently that manufacturing employment plateaued. Global trade and other shifts have caused some severe job shedding locally, but even that is only in the last 30-40 years. The long term trend was more automation and more jobs.
Computers landed on every desk very fast. Typists, mailrooms, secretaries and other such "entry" jobs became mostly obsolete. Still, the "white collar" and administration sectors experienced massive employment growth since the 80s.
Think of colleges, with their ever rising admins/academics ratio even as "administration automation" technologies became available.
When it comes to something like automating restaurants it's so dependant on "consumer preferences" and food culture that I wouldn't hazard any guesses.
Prepared food isn't a commodity and restaurants aren't driven by efficiency. There's no hard, purely rational reason why one burger is worth €3 and another is worth €20.
McDonald's us extremely efficient, in terms of labour cost per bite, but most newer competitors compete by being less "efficient" and more "artisinal."
- speby 7y agoCouldn't agree more. It is highly unpredictable. We tend to get antsy about the entry level jobs and quickly jumping to some conclusion where if you're currently doing the toppings at Domino's pizza by hand and Domino's replaces you with this machine, that you suddenly will have nothing to do but go home and lay on the couch all day while being unemployed. There are many things someone in such a situation may decide to do next and that "next" thing for that person is what could be unpredictable. And if tens of thousands of these people were replaced over a several year period, each of them making individual decisions about what to do next, it is hard to say where they all end up. We simply don't know.