> If nukes had been used we'd quite likely not be having this discussion. Exactly. No matter how that bias is named. There's no system where the accidents neve

> If nukes had been used we'd quite likely not be having this discussion. Exactly. No matter how that bias is named. There's no system where the accidents never happen. We were just lucky up to now, but it doesn't prove anything. Instead of naming it, I prefer to quote Nassim Taleb: https://www.businessinsider.com.au/nassim-talebs-black-swan-thanksgiving-turkey-2014-11 https://www.businessinsider.com.au/nassim-talebs-black-swan-... "“A turkey is fed for a thousand days by a butcher, every day is a confirmation to his team of analysts that butchers love turkeys” with statistical confidence increasing daily. “The butcher will continue to feed the turkey until a few days before Thanksgiving Day. And then comes the time when it’s not really a good idea to be a turkey. Being surprised by the butcher, the turkey reviews his beliefs when his confidence in the assertion that the butcher loves Turkeys is at its peak and the Turkey’s life is “very serene” and mildly predictable. This example is based on the adaptation of a metaphor created by Bertrand Russell. From the Turkey’s story, we can also identify the source of all prejudicial errors: confusing the absence of evidence (damages) with the evidence of its absence“" That's why I really don't understand those who claim that the nuclear doomsday can't happen because it didn't happen up to now. Errors happen in any complex system, and any probability of the total annihilation of the whole civilization is simply to high to be tolerated. There are many people who can trigger it at any moment, it's definitely not "the president only" and it never was. Who doesn't believe that should read the books that cover that subject. I've already referred to one, written by a former nuclear war planner. Search for it (that former job of his is a part of the book's title), read it and act. Before it's too late.