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> just like we avoided nuclear war That's reporting bias. If nukes had been used we'd quite likely not be having this discussion. > These big, nasty collectiv

> just like we avoided nuclear war That's reporting bias. If nukes had been used we'd quite likely not be having this discussion. > These big, nasty collective-action problems CAN be solved. I used to think so too. Now I don't believe it. We muddle though, but one day we won't be able to any more. I fear climate change will be that think.

fallingfrog 7y ago
I think it’s survivorship bias not reporting bias.
- tempguy9999 7y ago
  That is so absurdly true :) Thanks for catching it.
Robotbeat 7y ago
You shouldn't be downvoted. I understand your point: we may only be the 1 success to avoid global thermonuclear war out of 10 universes where such weapons were developed. And same may be true in other situations, as well. However, this is a sort of fatalistic view that denies human agency (I guess I am fated believe in the fantasy that human agency exists as those who believe in that fantasy are more likely to take the actions necessary to survive in seemingly hopeless situations and I am descended from such people?). We are the timeline that muddled through these collective action problems in the past. We have experience with doing so and were selected (in the evolutionary sense) out of all those possible human society timelines to have the ability to solve these collective action problems. So let us choose act to solve these problems as if we were, indeed, capable of solving them. Even if part of us might think we can't.
- tempguy9999 7y ago
  I've been very critical of people here who are fatalistic, it didn't occur to me I was doing the same thing. You're right to pick me up on that. My sad point is I've been trying to get stuff done on climate change for 20 years, and nothing got done because nobody cared. They didn't care because humans mainly don't care for anything beyond their local environment. The reasons for that are often down to lack of feeling of ability to change anything, which fatalism feeds into, but also down to, quite frankly, indifference. Mainly indifference. "Climate change? Whatever. Look, cheap flights!!" I no longer care because that wore me down and made me ill. I accept that it's too late to avert climate catastrophe and, barring some miracle, I don't expect to live out my full life. I've come to terms with that.
acqq 7y ago
> If nukes had been used we'd quite likely not be having this discussion. Exactly. No matter how that bias is named. There's no system where the accidents never happen. We were just lucky up to now, but it doesn't prove anything. Instead of naming it, I prefer to quote Nassim Taleb: https://www.businessinsider.com.au/nassim-talebs-black-swan-thanksgiving-turkey-2014-11 https://www.businessinsider.com.au/nassim-talebs-black-swan-... "“A turkey is fed for a thousand days by a butcher, every day is a confirmation to his team of analysts that butchers love turkeys” with statistical confidence increasing daily. “The butcher will continue to feed the turkey until a few days before Thanksgiving Day. And then comes the time when it’s not really a good idea to be a turkey. Being surprised by the butcher, the turkey reviews his beliefs when his confidence in the assertion that the butcher loves Turkeys is at its peak and the Turkey’s life is “very serene” and mildly predictable. This example is based on the adaptation of a metaphor created by Bertrand Russell. From the Turkey’s story, we can also identify the source of all prejudicial errors: confusing the absence of evidence (damages) with the evidence of its absence“" That's why I really don't understand those who claim that the nuclear doomsday can't happen because it didn't happen up to now. Errors happen in any complex system, and any probability of the total annihilation of the whole civilization is simply to high to be tolerated. There are many people who can trigger it at any moment, it's definitely not "the president only" and it never was. Who doesn't believe that should read the books that cover that subject. I've already referred to one, written by a former nuclear war planner. Search for it (that former job of his is a part of the book's title), read it and act. Before it's too late.
- JasonFruit 7y ago
  To nitpick, a thousand-day old turkey is going to be pretty tough.

fallingfrog 7y ago

I think it’s survivorship bias not reporting bias.

tempguy9999 7y ago
That is so absurdly true :) Thanks for catching it.

Robotbeat 7y ago

You shouldn't be downvoted. I understand your point: we may only be the 1 success to avoid global thermonuclear war out of 10 universes where such weapons were developed. And same may be true in other situations, as well. However, this is a sort of fatalistic view that denies human agency (I guess I am fated believe in the fantasy that human agency exists as those who believe in that fantasy are more likely to take the actions necessary to survive in seemingly hopeless situations and I am descended from such people?). We are the timeline that muddled through these collective action problems in the past. We have experience with doing so and were selected (in the evolutionary sense) out of all those possible human society timelines to have the ability to solve these collective action problems. So let us choose act to solve these problems as if we were, indeed, capable of solving them. Even if part of us might think we can't.

tempguy9999 7y ago
I've been very critical of people here who are fatalistic, it didn't occur to me I was doing the same thing. You're right to pick me up on that. My sad point is I've been trying to get stuff done on climate change for 20 years, and nothing got done because nobody cared. They didn't care because humans mainly don't care for anything beyond their local environment. The reasons for that are often down to lack of feeling of ability to change anything, which fatalism feeds into, but also down to, quite frankly, indifference. Mainly indifference. "Climate change? Whatever. Look, cheap flights!!" I no longer care because that wore me down and made me ill. I accept that it's too late to avert climate catastrophe and, barring some miracle, I don't expect to live out my full life. I've come to terms with that.

acqq 7y ago

> If nukes had been used we'd quite likely not be having this discussion. Exactly. No matter how that bias is named. There's no system where the accidents never happen. We were just lucky up to now, but it doesn't prove anything. Instead of naming it, I prefer to quote Nassim Taleb: https://www.businessinsider.com.au/nassim-talebs-black-swan-thanksgiving-turkey-2014-11 https://www.businessinsider.com.au/nassim-talebs-black-swan-... "“A turkey is fed for a thousand days by a butcher, every day is a confirmation to his team of analysts that butchers love turkeys” with statistical confidence increasing daily. “The butcher will continue to feed the turkey until a few days before Thanksgiving Day. And then comes the time when it’s not really a good idea to be a turkey. Being surprised by the butcher, the turkey reviews his beliefs when his confidence in the assertion that the butcher loves Turkeys is at its peak and the Turkey’s life is “very serene” and mildly predictable. This example is based on the adaptation of a metaphor created by Bertrand Russell. From the Turkey’s story, we can also identify the source of all prejudicial errors: confusing the absence of evidence (damages) with the evidence of its absence“" That's why I really don't understand those who claim that the nuclear doomsday can't happen because it didn't happen up to now. Errors happen in any complex system, and any probability of the total annihilation of the whole civilization is simply to high to be tolerated. There are many people who can trigger it at any moment, it's definitely not "the president only" and it never was. Who doesn't believe that should read the books that cover that subject. I've already referred to one, written by a former nuclear war planner. Search for it (that former job of his is a part of the book's title), read it and act. Before it's too late.

JasonFruit 7y ago
To nitpick, a thousand-day old turkey is going to be pretty tough.