This is the most often overlook aspect. Yes, the government might even lob a few nukes at its own territory of push came to shove, but that would only increase

This is the most often overlook aspect. Yes, the government might even lob a few nukes at its own territory of push came to shove, but that would only increase the defections. A US civil war would be incredibly messy, but it would not be easy to predict any sort of outcome. Everyone would interpret for themselves what "sworn to the constitution" meant for them and pick a side. There would certainly be more than 2 sides too, given how different the 50 states are.