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Wind cannot power modern transoceanic shipping. Modern container ships are 10-100 times the size of sail powered transports. The throughput of wind powered ship

Wind cannot power modern transoceanic shipping. Modern container ships are 10-100 times the size of sail powered transports. The throughput of wind powered shipping would be tiny. Biofuels and synthetic fuels are still hydrocarbons - just carbon-neutral ways of producing hydrocarbons. But the amount of forest needed to power ocean going vessels with wood would be immense. I couldn't find global bunker fuel usage, but apparently the port of Singapore sells 50 million tons of bunker fuel each year [1]. Wood has about half the energy density as bunker fuel, so that translates to 100 million tons of wood fuel. Clearcut tree plantations yield 80-90 tons of wood per acre, let's call it 100 for simplicity [2]. So we would need one million acres of tree plantations clear-cut each year just to provide enough fuel for Singapore's fuel consumption. Trees grown for timber take between 25 to 60 years to grow until they are ready for cultivation [3]. So 25 to 60 million acres of tree plantations to provide enough fuel for Singapore. By comparison, Portugal is 23 million acres. And this isn't even accounting for the fact that the lower energy density of wood fuels means ships will have to dedicate more space for fuel instead of cargo, thus lowering net efficiency. 1. https://blogs.platts.com/2019/07/29/imo-2020-an-opportunity-for-chinas-bunker-fuel-sector/ https://blogs.platts.com/2019/07/29/imo-2020-an-opportunity-... 2. https://www.forest2market.com/blog/how-many-tons-of-wood-are-on-an-acre-of-land https://www.forest2market.com/blog/how-many-tons-of-wood-are... 3. https://www.arborday.org/programs/graphics/conservation-trees/woodlots-tree-plantations.pdf https://www.arborday.org/programs/graphics/conservation-tree...

dredmorbius 7y ago
Wind cannot power modern transoceanic shipping. If something cannot go on forever, it will stop. Stein's law. You seem to think that the present state of affairs is preordained or eternal. It is not. Today's shipping regime is an accident of current technologies, fuels, and environmental externalities. Future regimes will be shaped by their circumstances, constraints, economies, and values or awareness. They will be quite different from what exists now. What specifically those will be, I don't know. That they will differ, I am certain. There are a limited number of ways to power long-range marine shipping. The total energy requirements are such that wind or fuel-based systems are about the only likely candidates. Economies are such that these will likely continue. Compromises such as slower speeds (vastly more efficient) and hybrid power are quite likely. Ship sizes, s schedules, crewing, operations, and total shipping volume, as well as costs, will all but certainly change. These will have significant systemic effects on other activities. Total scale and efficiencies are such that biofuels, as part of a mix may well be part of the solution. I've been following and writing on this space and developments for some time. You might care to run some keywords through the subreddit previously linked before your next response. A few relevant articles follow. More on biofuels: Prospects for biofuels: limited additional potential https://old.reddit.com/r/dredmorbius/comments/28k1w5/prospects_for_biofuels_limited_additional/ https://old.reddit.com/r/dredmorbius/comments/28k1w5/prospec... Boeing's Biofuel "Breakthrough" -- Less than overwhelming https://old.reddit.com/r/dredmorbius/comments/1wo2hl/boeings_biofuel_breakthrough_less_than/ https://old.reddit.com/r/dredmorbius/comments/1wo2hl/boeings... The intractable problem of biomass for fuels is HANNP / photosynthetic ceiling https://old.reddit.com/r/dredmorbius/comments/2cvap7/the_intractable_problem_of_biomass_for_fuels_is/ https://old.reddit.com/r/dredmorbius/comments/2cvap7/the_int... Synfuels: US Navy electricity-to-fuel synthesis, papers and press release https://old.reddit.com/r/dredmorbius/comments/22k71x/us_navy_electricitytofuel_synthesis_papers_and/ https://old.reddit.com/r/dredmorbius/comments/22k71x/us_navy... Electrical Fuel Synthesis from Seawater: older than I'd thought https://old.reddit.com/r/dredmorbius/comments/28nqoz/electrical_fuel_synthesis_from_seawater_older/ https://old.reddit.com/r/dredmorbius/comments/28nqoz/electri... Energy storage generally: Energy Storage Dispatch and Utilisation Regimes https://old.reddit.com/r/dredmorbius/comments/72l4sd/energy_storage_dispatch_and_utilisation_regimes/ https://old.reddit.com/r/dredmorbius/comments/72l4sd/energy_...
- manfredo 7y ago
  Yes, eventually the Earth will be swallowed by the sun, nothing lasts forever. The point remains, wind cannot power modern transoceanic shipping and neither can trees, deep phrases about the ephemerality of the world notwithstanding. Hopefully the future regime will be constrained by a means of locomotion that can sustain global commerce such that we don't have to roll back standards of living by the better part of a century. We know this is possible to do with nuclear energy - nuclear maritime propulsion is a mature technology. But the stubborn rejection of nuclear power means that hydrocarbons are here to stay. Fuel synthesis is only feasible with huge amounts of energy. Maybe possible if terrestrial nuclear energy becomes popular, but that too seems like a slim prospect.
  - dredmorbius 7y ago
    Timescales I'm considering are on the order of decades rather than billions or trillions of years. You seem fixated on the status quo. Let go.
    - manfredo 7y ago
      Again, if "letting go" entails reducing shipping by orders of magnitude, then that is not something society is going to accept. People would go to war before suffering the economic devastation that would bring. If people need to let go of something, let's start with the phobia of nuclear maritime propulsion.
      - dredmorbius 7y ago
        Reality does not rely on society's acceptance or nonacceptance.
        deleted 7y ago
        [deleted]
        manfredo 7y ago
        Society is a part of reality. What society will and will not accept is a limiting factor just like the limiting factor of energy density, hydrodynamic drag, etc. The reality is, society will keep burning fossil fuels until a cost effective substitute is provided. I could turn around and say the same thing to you. Go take your proposal they were drastically cut international shipping and move containers with sailboats and biomass fuel to national leaders. You'll rapidly discover that reality disagrees with the feasibility of this solution.

dredmorbius 7y ago

Wind cannot power modern transoceanic shipping. If something cannot go on forever, it will stop. Stein's law. You seem to think that the present state of affairs is preordained or eternal. It is not. Today's shipping regime is an accident of current technologies, fuels, and environmental externalities. Future regimes will be shaped by their circumstances, constraints, economies, and values or awareness. They will be quite different from what exists now. What specifically those will be, I don't know. That they will differ, I am certain. There are a limited number of ways to power long-range marine shipping. The total energy requirements are such that wind or fuel-based systems are about the only likely candidates. Economies are such that these will likely continue. Compromises such as slower speeds (vastly more efficient) and hybrid power are quite likely. Ship sizes, s schedules, crewing, operations, and total shipping volume, as well as costs, will all but certainly change. These will have significant systemic effects on other activities. Total scale and efficiencies are such that biofuels, as part of a mix may well be part of the solution. I've been following and writing on this space and developments for some time. You might care to run some keywords through the subreddit previously linked before your next response. A few relevant articles follow. More on biofuels: Prospects for biofuels: limited additional potential https://old.reddit.com/r/dredmorbius/comments/28k1w5/prospects_for_biofuels_limited_additional/ https://old.reddit.com/r/dredmorbius/comments/28k1w5/prospec... Boeing's Biofuel "Breakthrough" -- Less than overwhelming https://old.reddit.com/r/dredmorbius/comments/1wo2hl/boeings_biofuel_breakthrough_less_than/ https://old.reddit.com/r/dredmorbius/comments/1wo2hl/boeings... The intractable problem of biomass for fuels is HANNP / photosynthetic ceiling https://old.reddit.com/r/dredmorbius/comments/2cvap7/the_intractable_problem_of_biomass_for_fuels_is/ https://old.reddit.com/r/dredmorbius/comments/2cvap7/the_int... Synfuels: US Navy electricity-to-fuel synthesis, papers and press release https://old.reddit.com/r/dredmorbius/comments/22k71x/us_navy_electricitytofuel_synthesis_papers_and/ https://old.reddit.com/r/dredmorbius/comments/22k71x/us_navy... Electrical Fuel Synthesis from Seawater: older than I'd thought https://old.reddit.com/r/dredmorbius/comments/28nqoz/electrical_fuel_synthesis_from_seawater_older/ https://old.reddit.com/r/dredmorbius/comments/28nqoz/electri... Energy storage generally: Energy Storage Dispatch and Utilisation Regimes https://old.reddit.com/r/dredmorbius/comments/72l4sd/energy_storage_dispatch_and_utilisation_regimes/ https://old.reddit.com/r/dredmorbius/comments/72l4sd/energy_...

manfredo 7y ago
Yes, eventually the Earth will be swallowed by the sun, nothing lasts forever. The point remains, wind cannot power modern transoceanic shipping and neither can trees, deep phrases about the ephemerality of the world notwithstanding. Hopefully the future regime will be constrained by a means of locomotion that can sustain global commerce such that we don't have to roll back standards of living by the better part of a century. We know this is possible to do with nuclear energy - nuclear maritime propulsion is a mature technology. But the stubborn rejection of nuclear power means that hydrocarbons are here to stay. Fuel synthesis is only feasible with huge amounts of energy. Maybe possible if terrestrial nuclear energy becomes popular, but that too seems like a slim prospect.
- dredmorbius 7y ago
  Timescales I'm considering are on the order of decades rather than billions or trillions of years. You seem fixated on the status quo. Let go.
  - manfredo 7y ago
    Again, if "letting go" entails reducing shipping by orders of magnitude, then that is not something society is going to accept. People would go to war before suffering the economic devastation that would bring. If people need to let go of something, let's start with the phobia of nuclear maritime propulsion.
    - dredmorbius 7y ago
      Reality does not rely on society's acceptance or nonacceptance.
      - deleted 7y ago
        [deleted]
      - manfredo 7y ago
        Society is a part of reality. What society will and will not accept is a limiting factor just like the limiting factor of energy density, hydrodynamic drag, etc. The reality is, society will keep burning fossil fuels until a cost effective substitute is provided. I could turn around and say the same thing to you. Go take your proposal they were drastically cut international shipping and move containers with sailboats and biomass fuel to national leaders. You'll rapidly discover that reality disagrees with the feasibility of this solution.