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I wouldn't give that much worship to Galloway it's not like he is always right or my guess even close to that (and nobody is). For example this post circa 2017
by gist 7y ago
I wouldn't give that much worship to Galloway it's not like he is always right or my guess even close to that (and nobody is). For example this post circa 2017 about the bubble. I can't tell you how many people have not called the bubble since the last bubble correctly. Galloway is one of them:
https://www.profgalloway.com/every-seven-years https://www.profgalloway.com/every-seven-years
Market was at 21,600 (very roughly) on the approx. date of that post and now is at close to 27,000. It did not go lower than 22,400 in the interim.
To wit (that post):
> There are several hard metrics for why we may be nearing full-monty bubble, including things my NYU colleagues spend a great deal of time thinking about, and understand much better. But you don't need a Nobel to see the similarities between 1999 and 2017. (Btw, NYU Stern has three active Nobel Prize winners… We. Rule. But that's another post.)
Very generally if you are predicting a collapse ala 1999 you need to be a bit more accurate than that.
I didn't do a great deal of work to find that post either, it was linked in the post you gave.
Edit: Also love his being so proud of the anointed 3 active nobel prize winners. Would like to remind everyone that until recently the game in business was making money or a great product or being loved by your customers not winning academic awards and platitudes.
- ENGNR 7y agoI think it's deliberate, he never gives a 'maybe this, maybe that' answer. He does the analysis, but then does an intuitive glance at the end and takes a side one way or the other Sure he's wrong a lot, but at least he's never half-right half-wrong
- maehwasu 7y agoYeah, if you’re bragging about Nobel prizes in economics, you’re doing it wrong. They make the Peace Prize seem rigorous.
- dkrich 7y agoGalloway's strength is that he's an amazing communicator and very arrogant. People eat up what he says without a moment's thought. And to be fair he's had some great calls, ie, Amazon's stock run in 2017 and this WeWork fiasco (although the WeWork one wasn't that hard to predict after the reports on the corporate malfeasance came out). Combine an arrogant and vociferous personality with a couple of correct calls and you have something that sells. But he's also made some really bad calls. For example he predicted that Spotify was going to be the next FANG and that the stock price would double last year. That's not a crime, nobody knows what is going to happen in the future, but it's the arrogance and condescension and air of certainty that bothers me. He was so adamant about the dominance of voice and how Alexa was going to take over and largely disrupt touch screens. That was the call that I never agreed with and made me more skeptical of what he says. More than once I saw him on tv talking very condescendingly to people who questioned that call and in the end, two years later, I still don't know a single person who has ordered anything using Alexa. To this day it remains a cooking timer and a way to control audio equipment (if I'm really lazy). Galloway called it the most transformative device in ten years. Really?
- elliekelly 7y agoI occasionally order from Alexa but we call them “Amelia Bedelia orders” because there’s really no telling what we’ll actually get. It’s kind of fun. My favorite so far has been the bulk-order of travel size bars of dove soap. Why is that even a thing? Surely anyone who could fit 12 travel bars in their suitcase could just as easily fit a regular bar?
- seized 7y agoPeople who travel a lot for work and need one bar at a time and (for some reason) prefer Dove soap.
- detaro 7y ago> Surely anyone who could fit 12 travel bars in their suitcase could just as easily fit a regular bar? ... why would you assume someone would take all of them at the same time? Instead of maybe multiple family members using them, keeping a stockpile at home (so they don't have to order an individual one every time they need one), keeping them on hand for guests, ...
- elliekelly 7y ago> ... why would you assume someone would take all of them at the same time? I was being facetious... taking it literally à la Amelia Bedelia.
- twic 7y agoYeah but what if you're travelling with twelve kids, apostles, etc?