2 ms·

Wind doesn't move nearly as much cargo as compared to self-propelled craft. It's true that throughout the 18th and 19th century industrialized nations used wind

Wind doesn't move nearly as much cargo as compared to self-propelled craft. It's true that throughout the 18th and 19th century industrialized nations used wind power to move cargo, but I doubt people are going to be willing to revert to 18th and 19th century standards of living. Global commerce is built on cheap long distance transport, and any climate solution that involves eliminating or drastically reducing global commerce is a long winded way of saying "no solution".

dredmorbius 7y ago
I'm aware of that too. Point remains: direct solar, or battery storage, won't work, at all. Power and energy to load are simply insufficient. Wind can. Synfuels can. Wood pellets can. Scales and tech are manageable. For canal traffic, electric mule traction can. Likewise electrified cable ferries, on limited routes. Nuclear almost certainly won't. Yes, it's technically proven, but the risks, costs, social, and political hurdles are enormous. The shifts will eventually not be willing.
- manfredo 7y ago
  Wind cannot power modern transoceanic shipping. Modern container ships are 10-100 times the size of sail powered transports. The throughput of wind powered shipping would be tiny. Biofuels and synthetic fuels are still hydrocarbons - just carbon-neutral ways of producing hydrocarbons. But the amount of forest needed to power ocean going vessels with wood would be immense. I couldn't find global bunker fuel usage, but apparently the port of Singapore sells 50 million tons of bunker fuel each year [1]. Wood has about half the energy density as bunker fuel, so that translates to 100 million tons of wood fuel. Clearcut tree plantations yield 80-90 tons of wood per acre, let's call it 100 for simplicity [2]. So we would need one million acres of tree plantations clear-cut each year just to provide enough fuel for Singapore's fuel consumption. Trees grown for timber take between 25 to 60 years to grow until they are ready for cultivation [3]. So 25 to 60 million acres of tree plantations to provide enough fuel for Singapore. By comparison, Portugal is 23 million acres. And this isn't even accounting for the fact that the lower energy density of wood fuels means ships will have to dedicate more space for fuel instead of cargo, thus lowering net efficiency. 1. https://blogs.platts.com/2019/07/29/imo-2020-an-opportunity-for-chinas-bunker-fuel-sector/ https://blogs.platts.com/2019/07/29/imo-2020-an-opportunity-... 2. https://www.forest2market.com/blog/how-many-tons-of-wood-are-on-an-acre-of-land https://www.forest2market.com/blog/how-many-tons-of-wood-are... 3. https://www.arborday.org/programs/graphics/conservation-trees/woodlots-tree-plantations.pdf https://www.arborday.org/programs/graphics/conservation-tree...
  - dredmorbius 7y ago
    Wind cannot power modern transoceanic shipping. If something cannot go on forever, it will stop. Stein's law. You seem to think that the present state of affairs is preordained or eternal. It is not. Today's shipping regime is an accident of current technologies, fuels, and environmental externalities. Future regimes will be shaped by their circumstances, constraints, economies, and values or awareness. They will be quite different from what exists now. What specifically those will be, I don't know. That they will differ, I am certain. There are a limited number of ways to power long-range marine shipping. The total energy requirements are such that wind or fuel-based systems are about the only likely candidates. Economies are such that these will likely continue. Compromises such as slower speeds (vastly more efficient) and hybrid power are quite likely. Ship sizes, s schedules, crewing, operations, and total shipping volume, as well as costs, will all but certainly change. These will have significant systemic effects on other activities. Total scale and efficiencies are such that biofuels, as part of a mix may well be part of the solution. I've been following and writing on this space and developments for some time. You might care to run some keywords through the subreddit previously linked before your next response. A few relevant articles follow. More on biofuels: Prospects for biofuels: limited additional potential https://old.reddit.com/r/dredmorbius/comments/28k1w5/prospects_for_biofuels_limited_additional/ https://old.reddit.com/r/dredmorbius/comments/28k1w5/prospec... Boeing's Biofuel "Breakthrough" -- Less than overwhelming https://old.reddit.com/r/dredmorbius/comments/1wo2hl/boeings_biofuel_breakthrough_less_than/ https://old.reddit.com/r/dredmorbius/comments/1wo2hl/boeings... The intractable problem of biomass for fuels is HANNP / photosynthetic ceiling https://old.reddit.com/r/dredmorbius/comments/2cvap7/the_intractable_problem_of_biomass_for_fuels_is/ https://old.reddit.com/r/dredmorbius/comments/2cvap7/the_int... Synfuels: US Navy electricity-to-fuel synthesis, papers and press release https://old.reddit.com/r/dredmorbius/comments/22k71x/us_navy_electricitytofuel_synthesis_papers_and/ https://old.reddit.com/r/dredmorbius/comments/22k71x/us_navy... Electrical Fuel Synthesis from Seawater: older than I'd thought https://old.reddit.com/r/dredmorbius/comments/28nqoz/electrical_fuel_synthesis_from_seawater_older/ https://old.reddit.com/r/dredmorbius/comments/28nqoz/electri... Energy storage generally: Energy Storage Dispatch and Utilisation Regimes https://old.reddit.com/r/dredmorbius/comments/72l4sd/energy_storage_dispatch_and_utilisation_regimes/ https://old.reddit.com/r/dredmorbius/comments/72l4sd/energy_...

dredmorbius 7y ago

I'm aware of that too. Point remains: direct solar, or battery storage, won't work, at all. Power and energy to load are simply insufficient. Wind can. Synfuels can. Wood pellets can. Scales and tech are manageable. For canal traffic, electric mule traction can. Likewise electrified cable ferries, on limited routes. Nuclear almost certainly won't. Yes, it's technically proven, but the risks, costs, social, and political hurdles are enormous. The shifts will eventually not be willing.

manfredo 7y ago
Wind cannot power modern transoceanic shipping. Modern container ships are 10-100 times the size of sail powered transports. The throughput of wind powered shipping would be tiny. Biofuels and synthetic fuels are still hydrocarbons - just carbon-neutral ways of producing hydrocarbons. But the amount of forest needed to power ocean going vessels with wood would be immense. I couldn't find global bunker fuel usage, but apparently the port of Singapore sells 50 million tons of bunker fuel each year [1]. Wood has about half the energy density as bunker fuel, so that translates to 100 million tons of wood fuel. Clearcut tree plantations yield 80-90 tons of wood per acre, let's call it 100 for simplicity [2]. So we would need one million acres of tree plantations clear-cut each year just to provide enough fuel for Singapore's fuel consumption. Trees grown for timber take between 25 to 60 years to grow until they are ready for cultivation [3]. So 25 to 60 million acres of tree plantations to provide enough fuel for Singapore. By comparison, Portugal is 23 million acres. And this isn't even accounting for the fact that the lower energy density of wood fuels means ships will have to dedicate more space for fuel instead of cargo, thus lowering net efficiency. 1. https://blogs.platts.com/2019/07/29/imo-2020-an-opportunity-for-chinas-bunker-fuel-sector/ https://blogs.platts.com/2019/07/29/imo-2020-an-opportunity-... 2. https://www.forest2market.com/blog/how-many-tons-of-wood-are-on-an-acre-of-land https://www.forest2market.com/blog/how-many-tons-of-wood-are... 3. https://www.arborday.org/programs/graphics/conservation-trees/woodlots-tree-plantations.pdf https://www.arborday.org/programs/graphics/conservation-tree...
- dredmorbius 7y ago
  Wind cannot power modern transoceanic shipping. If something cannot go on forever, it will stop. Stein's law. You seem to think that the present state of affairs is preordained or eternal. It is not. Today's shipping regime is an accident of current technologies, fuels, and environmental externalities. Future regimes will be shaped by their circumstances, constraints, economies, and values or awareness. They will be quite different from what exists now. What specifically those will be, I don't know. That they will differ, I am certain. There are a limited number of ways to power long-range marine shipping. The total energy requirements are such that wind or fuel-based systems are about the only likely candidates. Economies are such that these will likely continue. Compromises such as slower speeds (vastly more efficient) and hybrid power are quite likely. Ship sizes, s schedules, crewing, operations, and total shipping volume, as well as costs, will all but certainly change. These will have significant systemic effects on other activities. Total scale and efficiencies are such that biofuels, as part of a mix may well be part of the solution. I've been following and writing on this space and developments for some time. You might care to run some keywords through the subreddit previously linked before your next response. A few relevant articles follow. More on biofuels: Prospects for biofuels: limited additional potential https://old.reddit.com/r/dredmorbius/comments/28k1w5/prospects_for_biofuels_limited_additional/ https://old.reddit.com/r/dredmorbius/comments/28k1w5/prospec... Boeing's Biofuel "Breakthrough" -- Less than overwhelming https://old.reddit.com/r/dredmorbius/comments/1wo2hl/boeings_biofuel_breakthrough_less_than/ https://old.reddit.com/r/dredmorbius/comments/1wo2hl/boeings... The intractable problem of biomass for fuels is HANNP / photosynthetic ceiling https://old.reddit.com/r/dredmorbius/comments/2cvap7/the_intractable_problem_of_biomass_for_fuels_is/ https://old.reddit.com/r/dredmorbius/comments/2cvap7/the_int... Synfuels: US Navy electricity-to-fuel synthesis, papers and press release https://old.reddit.com/r/dredmorbius/comments/22k71x/us_navy_electricitytofuel_synthesis_papers_and/ https://old.reddit.com/r/dredmorbius/comments/22k71x/us_navy... Electrical Fuel Synthesis from Seawater: older than I'd thought https://old.reddit.com/r/dredmorbius/comments/28nqoz/electrical_fuel_synthesis_from_seawater_older/ https://old.reddit.com/r/dredmorbius/comments/28nqoz/electri... Energy storage generally: Energy Storage Dispatch and Utilisation Regimes https://old.reddit.com/r/dredmorbius/comments/72l4sd/energy_storage_dispatch_and_utilisation_regimes/ https://old.reddit.com/r/dredmorbius/comments/72l4sd/energy_...