4 ms·

I never claimed to be wiser, though there is evidence that agrees. At least in the US, murder rates are consistently higher in states with the death penalty.

I never claimed to be wiser, though there is evidence that agrees. At least in the US, murder rates are consistently higher in states with the death penalty. https://web.archive.org/web/20140330143555/http://www.amnestyusa.org/our-work/issues/death-penalty/us-death-penalty-facts/the-death-penalty-and-deterrence?id=1101085 https://web.archive.org/web/20140330143555/http://www.amnest...

joshuamorton 7y ago
While I generally agree with your broader point, I doubt this relationship is causal.
- sokoloff 7y ago
  Agreed. It's entirely possible that high murder rates drive support for the death penalty, for example.
- schaefer 7y ago
  magashna: Punishment is not a deterrent. rbut: Punishment is a deterrent and has been proven ... magashna:murder rates are consistently higher in states with the death penalty. joshuamorton: I doubt this relationship is causal. Magashna is clearly not arguing causality, but rather that the death penalty has failed to be a deterrent to murder.
  - joshuamorton 7y ago
    This doesn't show that though. You have to examine the counterfactual: would the crime rate be even higher without the death penalty? If yes, it is a deterrent.
    - stallmanite 7y ago
      How can one examine a couterfactual in cases like this? Barring access to Marty McFly’s time machine unless you have two identical copies of a state to experiment on how would you go about this? Edit: legitimately curious, not trying to be nitpicky
      - joshuamorton 7y ago
        You probably can't, which is my point. Generally the best ways to analyze the impact of similar social changes is to compare two similar locations, one that makes a change and one that doesn't, over the same time period, and hope that controls for broader social change. It's not perfect by any means though.
abakker 7y ago
A confounding factor in this statistic is that even if you were a rational actor, weighing the deterrence value of the death penalty, the actual application of the death penalty is far from certain, so you'd appropriately assign it low probability. The distance from the present in time, and absolute probability are likely key contributors to this not being a good stat. A good look at deterrence would be Singapore, where probability of swift punishment seems to materially reduce crime.

joshuamorton 7y ago

While I generally agree with your broader point, I doubt this relationship is causal.

sokoloff 7y ago
Agreed. It's entirely possible that high murder rates drive support for the death penalty, for example.
schaefer 7y ago
magashna: Punishment is not a deterrent. rbut: Punishment is a deterrent and has been proven ... magashna:murder rates are consistently higher in states with the death penalty. joshuamorton: I doubt this relationship is causal. Magashna is clearly not arguing causality, but rather that the death penalty has failed to be a deterrent to murder.
- joshuamorton 7y ago
  This doesn't show that though. You have to examine the counterfactual: would the crime rate be even higher without the death penalty? If yes, it is a deterrent.
  - stallmanite 7y ago
    How can one examine a couterfactual in cases like this? Barring access to Marty McFly’s time machine unless you have two identical copies of a state to experiment on how would you go about this? Edit: legitimately curious, not trying to be nitpicky
    - joshuamorton 7y ago
      You probably can't, which is my point. Generally the best ways to analyze the impact of similar social changes is to compare two similar locations, one that makes a change and one that doesn't, over the same time period, and hope that controls for broader social change. It's not perfect by any means though.

abakker 7y ago

A confounding factor in this statistic is that even if you were a rational actor, weighing the deterrence value of the death penalty, the actual application of the death penalty is far from certain, so you'd appropriately assign it low probability. The distance from the present in time, and absolute probability are likely key contributors to this not being a good stat. A good look at deterrence would be Singapore, where probability of swift punishment seems to materially reduce crime.