7 ms·

And you are wiser than anyone in authority that has walked before you? (eg. parents, law makers, authorities, teachers, etc). Punishment is a deterrent and has

by rbut 7y ago

And you are wiser than anyone in authority that has walked before you? (eg. parents, law makers, authorities, teachers, etc). Punishment is a deterrent and has been proven so for millennia.

magashna 7y ago
I never claimed to be wiser, though there is evidence that agrees. At least in the US, murder rates are consistently higher in states with the death penalty. https://web.archive.org/web/20140330143555/http://www.amnestyusa.org/our-work/issues/death-penalty/us-death-penalty-facts/the-death-penalty-and-deterrence?id=1101085 https://web.archive.org/web/20140330143555/http://www.amnest...
- joshuamorton 7y ago
  While I generally agree with your broader point, I doubt this relationship is causal.
  - sokoloff 7y ago
    Agreed. It's entirely possible that high murder rates drive support for the death penalty, for example.
  - schaefer 7y ago
    magashna: Punishment is not a deterrent. rbut: Punishment is a deterrent and has been proven ... magashna:murder rates are consistently higher in states with the death penalty. joshuamorton: I doubt this relationship is causal. Magashna is clearly not arguing causality, but rather that the death penalty has failed to be a deterrent to murder.
    - joshuamorton 7y ago
      This doesn't show that though. You have to examine the counterfactual: would the crime rate be even higher without the death penalty? If yes, it is a deterrent.
      - stallmanite 7y ago
        How can one examine a couterfactual in cases like this? Barring access to Marty McFly’s time machine unless you have two identical copies of a state to experiment on how would you go about this? Edit: legitimately curious, not trying to be nitpicky
        joshuamorton 7y ago
        You probably can't, which is my point. Generally the best ways to analyze the impact of similar social changes is to compare two similar locations, one that makes a change and one that doesn't, over the same time period, and hope that controls for broader social change. It's not perfect by any means though.
- abakker 7y ago
  A confounding factor in this statistic is that even if you were a rational actor, weighing the deterrence value of the death penalty, the actual application of the death penalty is far from certain, so you'd appropriately assign it low probability. The distance from the present in time, and absolute probability are likely key contributors to this not being a good stat. A good look at deterrence would be Singapore, where probability of swift punishment seems to materially reduce crime.
maxheadroom 7y ago
>Punishment is a deterrent and has been proven so for millennia. A proven deterrent? Do you have any facts to back-up your posit? The crime and recidivism rates would seem to indicate the contrary; especially, in the states. Essentially, we should - in theory - have no crime by now (given it's been over a millennium) as all rates should've diminished to zero, yeah? At best, punishment as a deterrent is keeping the for-profit prison-industrial complex in business and that's about the extent of any benefit[s] (if it can even be called that) it might be providing to society.
- really3452 7y ago
  "Deterrence in relation to criminal offending is the idea or theory that the threat of punishment will deter people from committing crime and reduce the probability and/or level of offending in society." - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deterrence_(penology) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deterrence_(penology) So, punishment as a deterrent is currently a theory.
  - Cpoll 7y ago
    > Theory I want to reply to wickedsickeune below, "Gravity is also a theory," but I think the thread's hit max-depth. The word "theory" in the context of Deterrence_(penology) is not the same as the word "theory" in "theory of Gravity." The _Theory_ of Gravity refers to a model or explanation that follows from observed facts. Deterrence, according to the Wikipedia page, doesn't fit that definition of the word. > Despite numerous studies using a variety of data sources, sanctions, crime types, statistical methods and theoretical approaches, there remains little agreement in the scientific literature about whether, how, under what circumstances, to what extent, for which crimes, at what cost, for which individuals and, perhaps most importantly, in which direction do various aspects of contemporary criminal sanctions affect subsequent criminal behavior.
    - dkersten 7y ago
      > Deterrence, according to the Wikipedia page, doesn't fit that definition of the word. Yes, because the word "theory" was used erroneously. Saying that its currently a hypothesis would have been better.
joshypants 7y ago
Someone needs to read some Foucalt lol. Dreadfully uninformed comment, rbut.
vernie 7y ago
Thanks dad.

by rbut 7y ago

And you are wiser than anyone in authority that has walked before you? (eg. parents, law makers, authorities, teachers, etc). Punishment is a deterrent and has been proven so for millennia.

magashna 7y ago

I never claimed to be wiser, though there is evidence that agrees. At least in the US, murder rates are consistently higher in states with the death penalty. https://web.archive.org/web/20140330143555/http://www.amnestyusa.org/our-work/issues/death-penalty/us-death-penalty-facts/the-death-penalty-and-deterrence?id=1101085 https://web.archive.org/web/20140330143555/http://www.amnest...

joshuamorton 7y ago
While I generally agree with your broader point, I doubt this relationship is causal.
- sokoloff 7y ago
  Agreed. It's entirely possible that high murder rates drive support for the death penalty, for example.
- schaefer 7y ago
  magashna: Punishment is not a deterrent. rbut: Punishment is a deterrent and has been proven ... magashna:murder rates are consistently higher in states with the death penalty. joshuamorton: I doubt this relationship is causal. Magashna is clearly not arguing causality, but rather that the death penalty has failed to be a deterrent to murder.
  - joshuamorton 7y ago
    This doesn't show that though. You have to examine the counterfactual: would the crime rate be even higher without the death penalty? If yes, it is a deterrent.
    - stallmanite 7y ago
      How can one examine a couterfactual in cases like this? Barring access to Marty McFly’s time machine unless you have two identical copies of a state to experiment on how would you go about this? Edit: legitimately curious, not trying to be nitpicky
      - joshuamorton 7y ago
        You probably can't, which is my point. Generally the best ways to analyze the impact of similar social changes is to compare two similar locations, one that makes a change and one that doesn't, over the same time period, and hope that controls for broader social change. It's not perfect by any means though.
abakker 7y ago
A confounding factor in this statistic is that even if you were a rational actor, weighing the deterrence value of the death penalty, the actual application of the death penalty is far from certain, so you'd appropriately assign it low probability. The distance from the present in time, and absolute probability are likely key contributors to this not being a good stat. A good look at deterrence would be Singapore, where probability of swift punishment seems to materially reduce crime.

maxheadroom 7y ago

>Punishment is a deterrent and has been proven so for millennia. A proven deterrent? Do you have any facts to back-up your posit? The crime and recidivism rates would seem to indicate the contrary; especially, in the states. Essentially, we should - in theory - have no crime by now (given it's been over a millennium) as all rates should've diminished to zero, yeah? At best, punishment as a deterrent is keeping the for-profit prison-industrial complex in business and that's about the extent of any benefit[s] (if it can even be called that) it might be providing to society.

really3452 7y ago
"Deterrence in relation to criminal offending is the idea or theory that the threat of punishment will deter people from committing crime and reduce the probability and/or level of offending in society." - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deterrence_(penology) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deterrence_(penology) So, punishment as a deterrent is currently a theory.
- Cpoll 7y ago
  > Theory I want to reply to wickedsickeune below, "Gravity is also a theory," but I think the thread's hit max-depth. The word "theory" in the context of Deterrence_(penology) is not the same as the word "theory" in "theory of Gravity." The _Theory_ of Gravity refers to a model or explanation that follows from observed facts. Deterrence, according to the Wikipedia page, doesn't fit that definition of the word. > Despite numerous studies using a variety of data sources, sanctions, crime types, statistical methods and theoretical approaches, there remains little agreement in the scientific literature about whether, how, under what circumstances, to what extent, for which crimes, at what cost, for which individuals and, perhaps most importantly, in which direction do various aspects of contemporary criminal sanctions affect subsequent criminal behavior.
  - dkersten 7y ago
    > Deterrence, according to the Wikipedia page, doesn't fit that definition of the word. Yes, because the word "theory" was used erroneously. Saying that its currently a hypothesis would have been better.

joshypants 7y ago

Someone needs to read some Foucalt lol. Dreadfully uninformed comment, rbut.

vernie 7y ago

Thanks dad.