5 ms·

https://skepticalscience.com/print.php?r=448 https://skepticalscience.com/print.php?r=448 Just found that site randomly looking for Solar minimum and global wa

by seren 7y ago

https://skepticalscience.com/print.php?r=448 https://skepticalscience.com/print.php?r=448 Just found that site randomly looking for Solar minimum and global warming. The effect seems limited. Still I would be OK if we got some (temporary) 0.3° temperature reduction for "free". Or maybe, we would lose another decade of complacency... At least 2019 was the summer where every temperature records were beaten in Europe, so if this should be associated with lower temperature, we are all gonna roast for the next solar maximum.

olivermarks 7y ago
'Human Influence on Climate Change is Bigger than the Sun's' is a very bold confident statement on that 'skeptical science' climate alarmist site
- seren 7y ago
  I don't ask you to blindly believe what is written on that site, but if the sun activity had a great effect, since we are at the solar minimum, we should have experienced a colder year or summer according to that theory. So I don't know where exactly you live but this was the hottest summer since 1880, and if I remember last winter it was quite hot in Australia as well. As a matter of fact, I don't remember any place where people complained because it was significantly colder. Don't you think that fact alone should make you doubt the solar activity had any meaningful impact and will lead to another ice age ?
  - 411mrc 7y ago
    If we had no sun at all, I'm pretty sure we'd be an ice ball, save for volcanic activity. These impacts from solar activity take some time to develop, as I understand it. If we are in some sort of grand minimum, just wait a decade or so. If the Earth was highly reactive to these events (like breaking cold records everytime a minimum happens), I'm not sure we'd be here. The oceans store/release a lot of heat over the short term (years).
    - briantakita 7y ago
      "40 Inches of Snow in Montana: ‘It’s a February Storm in September’" https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/29/us/montana-snowstorm.html https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/29/us/montana-snowstorm.html This is not an isolated event. Parts of North America & Europe has had snow & hale in the Summer. Australia had an unusually cold winter. There's also historical precedence for these anomalous weather events. Growing Degree Days compared between 2018-2019 has been falling in all of the US States except Alaska & Florida; over 20% in the northern states. http://iceagefarmer.com/gdd http://iceagefarmer.com/gdd At what point would APGW be falsifiable? How much summer/early-autumn/late-spring snow would it take?
      - jbattle 7y ago
        That was due to a weakening of the jet stream which normally keeps arctic air further north. There is evidence (inconclusive AFAICT) that global warming is partly to blame for a weak jet stream last winter. This is why the term "climate change" is more accurate than "global warming". Increased energy in the atmosphere has uneven effects. The overall effect is to warm the earth but due to second-order effects (changes in cloud cover, changes in precipitation), some places won't experience warming but will experience change.
        briantakita 7y ago
        First, the GDD tool shows that most of America's landmass has a reduction of Growing Degree Days. This is more than "some places" and it throws doubt on the Hockey Stick graph model. The 1930's were hotter than the recent warm period, even though there was less CO2. Do the models you are referencing account for magnetic fields & Birkeland currents? During Grand Solar Minimums, the Solar Background Magnetic Field & Magnetic Field strength of sunspots is reduced, weakening both the Heliosphere & Magnetosphere, both of which repel cosmic rays, which trigger clouds, earthquakes, & volcanic eruptions. See the work of Dr. Valentina Zharkova, Dr. Heinrich Svensmark, & others (https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1342937X10001966 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S13429... ) for more details. Earth is also going through a Geomagnetic excursion of the poles, which is geologically rare.

by seren 7y ago

olivermarks 7y ago

'Human Influence on Climate Change is Bigger than the Sun's' is a very bold confident statement on that 'skeptical science' climate alarmist site

seren 7y ago
I don't ask you to blindly believe what is written on that site, but if the sun activity had a great effect, since we are at the solar minimum, we should have experienced a colder year or summer according to that theory. So I don't know where exactly you live but this was the hottest summer since 1880, and if I remember last winter it was quite hot in Australia as well. As a matter of fact, I don't remember any place where people complained because it was significantly colder. Don't you think that fact alone should make you doubt the solar activity had any meaningful impact and will lead to another ice age ?
- 411mrc 7y ago
  If we had no sun at all, I'm pretty sure we'd be an ice ball, save for volcanic activity. These impacts from solar activity take some time to develop, as I understand it. If we are in some sort of grand minimum, just wait a decade or so. If the Earth was highly reactive to these events (like breaking cold records everytime a minimum happens), I'm not sure we'd be here. The oceans store/release a lot of heat over the short term (years).
  - briantakita 7y ago
    "40 Inches of Snow in Montana: ‘It’s a February Storm in September’" https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/29/us/montana-snowstorm.html https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/29/us/montana-snowstorm.html This is not an isolated event. Parts of North America & Europe has had snow & hale in the Summer. Australia had an unusually cold winter. There's also historical precedence for these anomalous weather events. Growing Degree Days compared between 2018-2019 has been falling in all of the US States except Alaska & Florida; over 20% in the northern states. http://iceagefarmer.com/gdd http://iceagefarmer.com/gdd At what point would APGW be falsifiable? How much summer/early-autumn/late-spring snow would it take?
    - jbattle 7y ago
      That was due to a weakening of the jet stream which normally keeps arctic air further north. There is evidence (inconclusive AFAICT) that global warming is partly to blame for a weak jet stream last winter. This is why the term "climate change" is more accurate than "global warming". Increased energy in the atmosphere has uneven effects. The overall effect is to warm the earth but due to second-order effects (changes in cloud cover, changes in precipitation), some places won't experience warming but will experience change.
      - briantakita 7y ago
        First, the GDD tool shows that most of America's landmass has a reduction of Growing Degree Days. This is more than "some places" and it throws doubt on the Hockey Stick graph model. The 1930's were hotter than the recent warm period, even though there was less CO2. Do the models you are referencing account for magnetic fields & Birkeland currents? During Grand Solar Minimums, the Solar Background Magnetic Field & Magnetic Field strength of sunspots is reduced, weakening both the Heliosphere & Magnetosphere, both of which repel cosmic rays, which trigger clouds, earthquakes, & volcanic eruptions. See the work of Dr. Valentina Zharkova, Dr. Heinrich Svensmark, & others (https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1342937X10001966 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S13429... ) for more details. Earth is also going through a Geomagnetic excursion of the poles, which is geologically rare.