5 ms·

Starship could have Falcon Heavy level of delays (which I think it will) and still beat SLS.

nexuist 7y ago
Not entirely sure about that. Have no skin in the game but from what I can tell Starship is just a bigger version of the Falcon 9 second stage. FH on the other hand required a lot of engineering investment to figure out how to bolt three F9s together and how to make the software work between all three. I'm certain it will be a long time until it can get to Mars, but LEO within the next 2-3 years is probably realistic.
- kanox 7y ago
  > Starship is just a bigger version of the Falcon 9 second stage No way, that's where most of the differences are. The Falcon 9 second stage is a classic expendable stage but Starship is a brand new design which aims to be fully reusable.
- nordsieck 7y ago
  > Starship is just a bigger version of the Falcon 9 second stage Starship is designed to land from interplanetary speeds (not just LEO orbital speeds), can re-fuel in orbit, and has the world'd most advanced rocket engines. The jump from F9 -> Starship is substantially larger than the jump from F9 -> FH. edit: spelling
  - deleted 7y ago
    [deleted]
- JshWright 7y ago
  > I can tell Starship is just a bigger version of the Falcon 9 second stage What similarities are you referring to? They're designed to be launched atop another, bigger rocket. Other than that...?
- caconym_ 7y ago
  > from what I can tell Starship is just a bigger version of the Falcon 9 second stage I know I'm piling on here with this quote but I just don't understand why you'd say this if you'd done the least amount of research. They are about as different as two rockets can be—do you think Starship is "just a bigger version" because it's an upper stage? Because it's built by the same company? Its design and (theoretical, until it flies) capabilities are radically different and expanded relative to F9 stage 2.
cryptoz 7y ago
FH was 5 years+ behind schedule before it was built and launched. Starship already has multiple constructions going on, with multiple prototypes to test and multiple full-size vehicles planned quickly. In 2011, FH was supposed to have "arrival at launch site" by 2H 2012. It first launched in 2018 (after arriving at launch site in 2018 not 2012). The same level of delay would mean the first Starship does not reach orbit until ~2025. That seems crazy pessimistic and would be a dramatic departure from the otherwise normal delays faced by SpaceX. I think it's extremely unlikely that Starship would face FH-level delays. That would cancel the Starlink constellation, cede the space-internet game to others, hand the torch to BO or others working on large projects, and absolutely destroy morale at SpaceX. I just don't see it happening.
- ethbro 7y ago
  Minor: Boeing is BA, if that was the reference
  - FredFS456 7y ago
    BO = Blue Origin
    - ethbro 7y ago
      That makes more sense!
- justapassenger 7y ago
  FH is "just" 3 F9 strapped together. Doing that took them more than 5 years than planned. Keeping that in mind, having 5 year delay on brand new design, using totally different materials, new engine, etc isn't far fetched.
  - cryptoz 7y ago
    There is a quote somewhere (by Elon?) saying that FH is not "just" 3 F9s strapped together. A significant source of the slowdown for FH was the desire to not launch it without full reusability of all 3 stages and not to launch it without significant improvements (block 5 etc). Starship has none of those potential delays and has already solved most of the hard problems (as evidenced by the Hopper hopping already). Starship has all of the learnings and experience that FH and F9 didn't have. There will be delays, sure. But we won't be waiting 5+ years again for a single launch. Those days are over, and SpaceX is proving it. Some context, I haven't read this yet: https://www.quora.com/What-makes-SpaceXs-Falcon-Heavy-more-than-just-three-Falcon-9-rockets-strapped-together https://www.quora.com/What-makes-SpaceXs-Falcon-Heavy-more-t... Edit: > Keeping that in mind, having 5 year delay on brand new design, using totally different materials, new engine, etc isn't far fetched. The first full size Starship prototype is already built though (within ~2 years of initial announcement? Not behind schedule basically at all, so far?). IIRC for FH it was a ~5 year delay before SpaceX even starting construction on the first parts. The difference with Starship is staggering. The pace is dramatically faster, the risks are reduced up-front, and the tests are planned on a much shorter timeframe. We would frequently go 6 months to a year and hear no news at all about FH. There is news, updates and progress available to the public on an hourly or daily basis about the Starship progress. Night and day.
de_watcher 7y ago
Starship looks stupid simple compared to the FH.
nickik 7y ago
I think people are missing an important point when talking about Falcon Heavy. Yes it was delayed, but the Falcon Heavy that was eventually launched, was WAY, WAY better then the one announced in 2011. The payload of the 2011 version was almost reached by the Falcon 9 itself. That was one of the major reasons for the delay, not design and production issues. The Falcon Heavy profited from all the advancments on Falcon 9 and it made no sense to actually build a Falcon Heavy before Block 4. In fact the first costumers for Falcon Heavy flew on Falcon 9 instead.

Not entirely sure about that. Have no skin in the game but from what I can tell Starship is just a bigger version of the Falcon 9 second stage. FH on the other hand required a lot of engineering investment to figure out how to bolt three F9s together and how to make the software work between all three. I'm certain it will be a long time until it can get to Mars, but LEO within the next 2-3 years is probably realistic.

kanox 7y ago
> Starship is just a bigger version of the Falcon 9 second stage No way, that's where most of the differences are. The Falcon 9 second stage is a classic expendable stage but Starship is a brand new design which aims to be fully reusable.
nordsieck 7y ago
> Starship is just a bigger version of the Falcon 9 second stage Starship is designed to land from interplanetary speeds (not just LEO orbital speeds), can re-fuel in orbit, and has the world'd most advanced rocket engines. The jump from F9 -> Starship is substantially larger than the jump from F9 -> FH. edit: spelling
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
JshWright 7y ago
> I can tell Starship is just a bigger version of the Falcon 9 second stage What similarities are you referring to? They're designed to be launched atop another, bigger rocket. Other than that...?
caconym_ 7y ago
> from what I can tell Starship is just a bigger version of the Falcon 9 second stage I know I'm piling on here with this quote but I just don't understand why you'd say this if you'd done the least amount of research. They are about as different as two rockets can be—do you think Starship is "just a bigger version" because it's an upper stage? Because it's built by the same company? Its design and (theoretical, until it flies) capabilities are radically different and expanded relative to F9 stage 2.

cryptoz 7y ago

FH was 5 years+ behind schedule before it was built and launched. Starship already has multiple constructions going on, with multiple prototypes to test and multiple full-size vehicles planned quickly. In 2011, FH was supposed to have "arrival at launch site" by 2H 2012. It first launched in 2018 (after arriving at launch site in 2018 not 2012). The same level of delay would mean the first Starship does not reach orbit until ~2025. That seems crazy pessimistic and would be a dramatic departure from the otherwise normal delays faced by SpaceX. I think it's extremely unlikely that Starship would face FH-level delays. That would cancel the Starlink constellation, cede the space-internet game to others, hand the torch to BO or others working on large projects, and absolutely destroy morale at SpaceX. I just don't see it happening.

ethbro 7y ago
Minor: Boeing is BA, if that was the reference
- FredFS456 7y ago
  BO = Blue Origin
  - ethbro 7y ago
    That makes more sense!
justapassenger 7y ago
FH is "just" 3 F9 strapped together. Doing that took them more than 5 years than planned. Keeping that in mind, having 5 year delay on brand new design, using totally different materials, new engine, etc isn't far fetched.
- cryptoz 7y ago
  There is a quote somewhere (by Elon?) saying that FH is not "just" 3 F9s strapped together. A significant source of the slowdown for FH was the desire to not launch it without full reusability of all 3 stages and not to launch it without significant improvements (block 5 etc). Starship has none of those potential delays and has already solved most of the hard problems (as evidenced by the Hopper hopping already). Starship has all of the learnings and experience that FH and F9 didn't have. There will be delays, sure. But we won't be waiting 5+ years again for a single launch. Those days are over, and SpaceX is proving it. Some context, I haven't read this yet: https://www.quora.com/What-makes-SpaceXs-Falcon-Heavy-more-than-just-three-Falcon-9-rockets-strapped-together https://www.quora.com/What-makes-SpaceXs-Falcon-Heavy-more-t... Edit: > Keeping that in mind, having 5 year delay on brand new design, using totally different materials, new engine, etc isn't far fetched. The first full size Starship prototype is already built though (within ~2 years of initial announcement? Not behind schedule basically at all, so far?). IIRC for FH it was a ~5 year delay before SpaceX even starting construction on the first parts. The difference with Starship is staggering. The pace is dramatically faster, the risks are reduced up-front, and the tests are planned on a much shorter timeframe. We would frequently go 6 months to a year and hear no news at all about FH. There is news, updates and progress available to the public on an hourly or daily basis about the Starship progress. Night and day.

de_watcher 7y ago

Starship looks stupid simple compared to the FH.

nickik 7y ago

I think people are missing an important point when talking about Falcon Heavy. Yes it was delayed, but the Falcon Heavy that was eventually launched, was WAY, WAY better then the one announced in 2011. The payload of the 2011 version was almost reached by the Falcon 9 itself. That was one of the major reasons for the delay, not design and production issues. The Falcon Heavy profited from all the advancments on Falcon 9 and it made no sense to actually build a Falcon Heavy before Block 4. In fact the first costumers for Falcon Heavy flew on Falcon 9 instead.