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The point I was trying to make is that we are only at the dawn of commercial space flight. Compare the first commercial airplane flights, technology and cost, t

by Vomzor 7y ago

The point I was trying to make is that we are only at the dawn of commercial space flight. Compare the first commercial airplane flights, technology and cost, to today's 20 euro Ryanair flights. The same will happen with space. >The same is true for spaceflight, where the formulas for rocket propelled vehicles are well understood. You are assuming there never will be a replacement for rocket technology. I think you're wrong.

Merrill 7y ago
It took about 11 years to go from Kitty Hawk to the first scheduled passenger flights in 1914. On the other hand, about 40 years elapsed between Gargarin in '61 until Dennis Tito's paid flight aboard a Soyuz in 2001. The interval from Gargarin to now is 58 years. 58 years from 1914 puts us to 1972. By '72 we had turbofan jet airliners of all the current layouts including 4 under the wings, 2 under the wings, 2 in the tail, and different layouts of 3 in the tail. There had been the ill-fated Comet with 4 in the tail. The Concorde SST had done its first flight already in '69. There has been no comparable advance in space flight technology in the last 58 years. Since '72 there has been cost reduction and refinement of the jet airliner, but prices also have come down due to higher volumes, more passengers per flight, and a reduction in service. What is this new propulsion technology that you anticipate?
- Vomzor 7y ago
  >There has been no comparable advance in space flight technology in the last 58 years. Because there was no incentive. Space was something governments did and after the USA won the space race, interest waned. SpaceX proved there is a commercial market. Now we are witnessing the start of a commercial space boom. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_private_spaceflight_companies#Launch_vehicle_makers https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_private_spaceflight_co... Look at the number of launchers in development. Competition = innovation. And once space mining has been proven as a concept, then the real boom will begin. I'm optimistic and expect all of this to happen in the next 20 years. >What is this new propulsion technology that you anticipate? Ion drives?, scramjets?, something that hasn't been discovered yet?, ... I honestly don't know but I doubt we will still be stuck with chemical rockets a 100 years from now.
- FiatLuxDave 7y ago
  Every time I see this analogy, I wonder why people choose Kitty Hawk as the start date. Perhaps instead, they should treat Gagarin's flight as analogous to the flight of the Montgolfier brothers in 1783. The interval from the first manned balloon flight to the first airplane flight was 131 years, with decades of little apparent progress during that long time.

by Vomzor 7y ago

Merrill 7y ago

It took about 11 years to go from Kitty Hawk to the first scheduled passenger flights in 1914. On the other hand, about 40 years elapsed between Gargarin in '61 until Dennis Tito's paid flight aboard a Soyuz in 2001. The interval from Gargarin to now is 58 years. 58 years from 1914 puts us to 1972. By '72 we had turbofan jet airliners of all the current layouts including 4 under the wings, 2 under the wings, 2 in the tail, and different layouts of 3 in the tail. There had been the ill-fated Comet with 4 in the tail. The Concorde SST had done its first flight already in '69. There has been no comparable advance in space flight technology in the last 58 years. Since '72 there has been cost reduction and refinement of the jet airliner, but prices also have come down due to higher volumes, more passengers per flight, and a reduction in service. What is this new propulsion technology that you anticipate?

Vomzor 7y ago
>There has been no comparable advance in space flight technology in the last 58 years. Because there was no incentive. Space was something governments did and after the USA won the space race, interest waned. SpaceX proved there is a commercial market. Now we are witnessing the start of a commercial space boom. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_private_spaceflight_companies#Launch_vehicle_makers https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_private_spaceflight_co... Look at the number of launchers in development. Competition = innovation. And once space mining has been proven as a concept, then the real boom will begin. I'm optimistic and expect all of this to happen in the next 20 years. >What is this new propulsion technology that you anticipate? Ion drives?, scramjets?, something that hasn't been discovered yet?, ... I honestly don't know but I doubt we will still be stuck with chemical rockets a 100 years from now.
FiatLuxDave 7y ago
Every time I see this analogy, I wonder why people choose Kitty Hawk as the start date. Perhaps instead, they should treat Gagarin's flight as analogous to the flight of the Montgolfier brothers in 1783. The interval from the first manned balloon flight to the first airplane flight was 131 years, with decades of little apparent progress during that long time.