5 ms·
> As much I'm hoping there'll be a breakthrough in AGI I think it probably won't be one breakthrough, but several, over decades. Personally, I'm pretty happy t
by tachyonbeam 7y ago
> As much I'm hoping there'll be a breakthrough in AGI
I think it probably won't be one breakthrough, but several, over decades. Personally, I'm pretty happy that AGI is taking a long time to materialize. We likely won't see a "fast takeoff scenario" (the computer is learning at a geometric rate !!1). It will likely happen gradually over years (progressively more intelligent, more aware computer systems), and we may have a chance to adapt in response.
- benogorek 7y agoA business professor told me that cars were entirely incremental innovation all the way from the model T. Just little improvements, one at a time. I don't know if that's true, but I wonder if it will be an apt analogy for AGI - one feature at a time, and older attempts at it just look outdated.
- lonelappde 7y agohttps://rework.withgoogle.com/blog/the-roofshot-manifesto/ https://rework.withgoogle.com/blog/the-roofshot-manifesto/
- jotakami 7y agoPerhaps, although the automobile has always had a clear explicit purpose: convert potential energy into rotational energy in a controlled manner. It’s hard to identify such a singular purpose for AGI.
- maxerickson 7y agoThings like automatic transmissions and fuel injection aren't particularly incremental.
- benogorek 7y agoAs someone who once got stuck in an intersection after flooding a '79 Monte Carlo's carburetor while deciding to go on red, I'm with you on fuel injection. But I could see the counter-argument that something that makes an experience nicer is not radical innovation. That old junker got me where I need to go for a while.