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Do you have some sources on this? Every study I am finding even comparing like for like shows SDVs are about the same or safer. Also the facts I was able to fin

Do you have some sources on this? Every study I am finding even comparing like for like shows SDVs are about the same or safer. Also the facts I was able to find from Tesla do a lot of comparisons, not just the obscure ones you cite.

masklinn 7y ago
> Do you have some sources on this? Fatalities of human-driven cars is ~1.5 per 100 million miles driven, and that's across the entire range of driving conditions. The autonomous car industry (level 3) totaled under 10 million miles driven as of the Uber kill, putting them way beyond despite benefiting from only good conditions. Tesla just reached 1 billion miles on autopilot early this year and has 5 fatalities, that's slightly better than the human-driven rate but (again) one can assume this is in good conditions pretty much exclusively.
- mentat 7y ago
  Only in good conditions? Have you seen the videos of the Uber kill? Come on... 95% of humans would have had the same outcome.
  - Jasper_ 7y ago
    The dashcam footage released by Uber was misleading; their cameras and sensors were far from as good as the human eye. The Tempe police concluded 85% of humans could have stopped the car in time: [0] > In simulating conditions of the crash and consulting their textbooks, detectives found that Herzberg could have been seen 143 feet down the road by 85 percent of motorists. [0] https://www.phoenixnewtimes.com/news/self-driving-uber-crash-avoidable-drivers-phone-playing-video-before-woman-struck-10543284 https://www.phoenixnewtimes.com/news/self-driving-uber-crash...
    - jmpman 7y ago
      I drove the section of road. If I wasn’t distracted by my phone, I would have stopped properly 100% of the time.
      - jmpman 7y ago
        Downvoted... I brought up the phone distraction because the Uber safety driver was distracted by watching video on her phone.
    - masklinn 7y ago
      And as every other level 3 car it was using LIDAR, meaning visible light conditions were irrelevant. Even if the environment had really been as dark as the misleading dashcam footage it would have had very little relevance to car sensors unless that had been extremely heavy fog or rain.
- YeGoblynQueenne 7y ago
  Autonomous cars have not yet reached level 3! They are level 2 at best. >> A Level 2 autonomous vehicle can control both the steering and the speed at the same time, essentially offering partial automation. The human must remain ready to take full control in an emergency and is ultimately in charge of and responsible for whatever the vehicle does. GM’s Super Cruise and Tesla’s Autopilot are examples of Level 2 systems. >> Level 3 automation is controversial. The car not only manages steering and speed, but is responsible for monitoring the environment around it and detecting challenges that require human intervention. In normal conditions, a human driver would not need to pay any attention at all, but if something went wrong with the system, the person would have to be ready to take over right away. All current autonomous cars require human safety drivers, or the full attention of the human driver (like in Teslas). From: What are these ‘levels’ of autonomous vehicles? https://theconversation.com/what-are-these-levels-of-autonomous-vehicles-96396 https://theconversation.com/what-are-these-levels-of-autonom...
YeGoblynQueenne 7y ago
At least one major study has found that there is currently not enough information to decide with certainty whether self-driving cars are safer than human-drive cars: Kay Findings •Autonomous vehicles would have to be driven hundreds of millions of miles and sometimes hundreds of billions of miles to demonstrate their reliability in terms of fatali-ties and injuries. •Under even aggressive testing assumptions, existing fleets would take tens and sometimes hundreds of years to drive these miles—an impossible proposition if the aim is to demonstrate their performance prior to releas-ing them on the roads for consumer use. •Therefore, at least for fatalities and injuries, test-driving alone cannot provide sufficient evidence for demonstrat-ing autonomous vehicle safety. •Developers of this technology and third-party testers will need to develop innovative methods of demonstrat-ing safety and reliability. •Even with these methods, it may not be possible to establish with certainty the safety of autonomous vehicles. Uncertainty will persist. From: RAND Corporation Driving to Safety. How Many Miles of Driving Would It Take to Demonstrate Autonomous Vehicle Reliability? Nidhi Kalra, Susan M. Paddock https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR1400/RR1478/RAND_RR1478.pdf https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/...

masklinn 7y ago

> Do you have some sources on this? Fatalities of human-driven cars is ~1.5 per 100 million miles driven, and that's across the entire range of driving conditions. The autonomous car industry (level 3) totaled under 10 million miles driven as of the Uber kill, putting them way beyond despite benefiting from only good conditions. Tesla just reached 1 billion miles on autopilot early this year and has 5 fatalities, that's slightly better than the human-driven rate but (again) one can assume this is in good conditions pretty much exclusively.

mentat 7y ago
Only in good conditions? Have you seen the videos of the Uber kill? Come on... 95% of humans would have had the same outcome.
- Jasper_ 7y ago
  The dashcam footage released by Uber was misleading; their cameras and sensors were far from as good as the human eye. The Tempe police concluded 85% of humans could have stopped the car in time: [0] > In simulating conditions of the crash and consulting their textbooks, detectives found that Herzberg could have been seen 143 feet down the road by 85 percent of motorists. [0] https://www.phoenixnewtimes.com/news/self-driving-uber-crash-avoidable-drivers-phone-playing-video-before-woman-struck-10543284 https://www.phoenixnewtimes.com/news/self-driving-uber-crash...
  - jmpman 7y ago
    I drove the section of road. If I wasn’t distracted by my phone, I would have stopped properly 100% of the time.
    - jmpman 7y ago
      Downvoted... I brought up the phone distraction because the Uber safety driver was distracted by watching video on her phone.
  - masklinn 7y ago
    And as every other level 3 car it was using LIDAR, meaning visible light conditions were irrelevant. Even if the environment had really been as dark as the misleading dashcam footage it would have had very little relevance to car sensors unless that had been extremely heavy fog or rain.
YeGoblynQueenne 7y ago
Autonomous cars have not yet reached level 3! They are level 2 at best. >> A Level 2 autonomous vehicle can control both the steering and the speed at the same time, essentially offering partial automation. The human must remain ready to take full control in an emergency and is ultimately in charge of and responsible for whatever the vehicle does. GM’s Super Cruise and Tesla’s Autopilot are examples of Level 2 systems. >> Level 3 automation is controversial. The car not only manages steering and speed, but is responsible for monitoring the environment around it and detecting challenges that require human intervention. In normal conditions, a human driver would not need to pay any attention at all, but if something went wrong with the system, the person would have to be ready to take over right away. All current autonomous cars require human safety drivers, or the full attention of the human driver (like in Teslas). From: What are these ‘levels’ of autonomous vehicles? https://theconversation.com/what-are-these-levels-of-autonomous-vehicles-96396 https://theconversation.com/what-are-these-levels-of-autonom...

YeGoblynQueenne 7y ago

At least one major study has found that there is currently not enough information to decide with certainty whether self-driving cars are safer than human-drive cars: Kay Findings •Autonomous vehicles would have to be driven hundreds of millions of miles and sometimes hundreds of billions of miles to demonstrate their reliability in terms of fatali-ties and injuries. •Under even aggressive testing assumptions, existing fleets would take tens and sometimes hundreds of years to drive these miles—an impossible proposition if the aim is to demonstrate their performance prior to releas-ing them on the roads for consumer use. •Therefore, at least for fatalities and injuries, test-driving alone cannot provide sufficient evidence for demonstrat-ing autonomous vehicle safety. •Developers of this technology and third-party testers will need to develop innovative methods of demonstrat-ing safety and reliability. •Even with these methods, it may not be possible to establish with certainty the safety of autonomous vehicles. Uncertainty will persist. From: RAND Corporation Driving to Safety. How Many Miles of Driving Would It Take to Demonstrate Autonomous Vehicle Reliability? Nidhi Kalra, Susan M. Paddock https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR1400/RR1478/RAND_RR1478.pdf https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/...