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If you're incredulous that Tesla would let people oversee a moving car at 15mph in a parking lot, wait until you hear what happens next after the car gets to th
by dkarl 7y ago
If you're incredulous that Tesla would let people oversee a moving car at 15mph in a parking lot, wait until you hear what happens next after the car gets to them!
I think driving is a special case for safety, because we have put humans in charge of controlling 2000+lb cars at high speed in close proximity with other humans doing the same thing, and we've either designed or retrofitted this activity into almost every dense human habitation on the planet. Obviously we would never make such a decision now, but it gives a special context to today's safety decisions. It is a major ongoing source of death and injury as well as a major source of pollution, and bringing that era to a close is a special priority. In the United States roughly 100 people per day die in car accidents, and many more are seriously injured, so you could say that every day we can accelerate the end of human driving saves a hundred lives.
- natch 7y agoSmall clarification: it’s 5 mph for now, not 15.
- elihu 7y agoI agree that having humans drive cars is inherently unsafe and that self-driving cars will eventually be safer when the technology matures. However, that doesn't justify Tesla releasing features before they're ready. That doesn't move us towards a self-driving future; in fact, it sets us back.
- CPLX 7y agoI think you’ve sort of articulated the problem yourself. Cars are inherently incredibly dangerous, and also ubiquitous. Therefore, even a subtle change to how cars work has the potential to cause literal carnage. And this isn’t a subtle change.
- gpm 7y agoIt also has the potential to prevent literal carnage. The risk might be high, but so is the reward.
- jakeogh 7y agoFaith that pre-programmed cars are going to outperform humans is equivalent to predicting general AI.
- TheGallopedHigh 7y agoThere are plenty of narrow AI algorithms that outperform humans.
- DougWebb 7y ago100 people per day out of how many people driving per day? I'm pretty sure it's a very small percentage. How does that compare to the percentage of self-driving car accidents relative to the number of self-driving cars? My gut feeling is that if you replaced every car on the road with today's self-driving cars, the accident rate would go way up. There's probably a danger-maximum somewhere before 100% replacement, though. Some mix of highly-predictable self-driving cars and poorly-predictable human-driven cars will cause the most accidents, and a lower number of either will cause fewer accidents.
- dkarl 7y agoThere's probably a danger-maximum somewhere before 100% replacement, though. Some mix of highly-predictable self-driving cars and poorly-predictable human-driven cars will cause the most accidents That's an interesting point. Since the technology will be improving at the same time adoption is increasing, I don't know if we'll be able to observe that maximum, but I think you're right. One thing to consider is that once there are a significant number of self-driving cars on the road, they'll start communicating in a much faster and richer way than human drivers are able to communicate. If self-driving cars are able to achieve human collision rates with human drivers, they will be able to achieve much, much lower collision rate with each other. That effect might lower the percentage at which safety starts to improve. Another variable will be the built environment. Over the years we have developed road systems that are highly enriched with features to assist human drivers, and of course we will begin to do the same for self-driving cars. Nobody is talking about those improvements right now because they aren't relevant to getting the first cars on the road. The engineers working on self-driving cars have to tackle the hardest version of the problem that will ever exist first, and only then can they start making it easier. Confession: for years I predicted to my friends that the first autonomous passenger vehicles to coexist with untrained members of the public would be in a theme park or a city center closed to other vehicles, with sensors and other assistance built into the environment, because I thought we'd have to start with an easier version of the problem.
- mempko 7y agoIf only there was a technology that would guarantee the transport would stay on a path. If it could carry a lot of people , that would ve a bonus...
- zelon88 7y agoShelter ourselves straight into impotence.