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I have not seen the presentation yet. Still, I am willing to bet anyone a non-trivial amount of money that we do not see people flying next year.
by eugenhotaj 7y ago
I have not seen the presentation yet. Still, I am willing to bet anyone a non-trivial amount of money that we do not see people flying next year.
- deleted 7y ago[deleted]
- krick 7y agoTime to make a gambling lot on some sweepstake platform out there.
- cptaj 7y agoAhem... https://www.reddit.com/r/HighStakesSpaceX/ https://www.reddit.com/r/HighStakesSpaceX/
- mandeepj 7y agoRight. Dragon still has not taken Astronauts onboard
- nabla9 7y agoIt's good to keep track of your predictions and improve them. One of the sites where you can do this is https://www.metaculus.com/ https://www.metaculus.com/ Are there others where you don't have to put money into predicting?
- krilly 7y agoWow, sick web design and a sick idea. It's like Augur without the bullshit
- Laremere 7y agoThis was more of an off the cuff remark than it was a guided estimate, though his reasoning was fairly valid: He expects a Starship successful orbit in 6 +- 3 months. Demonstrating human capability with non-reusable hardware means building and throwing away hardware 10 times. A rocket capable of rapid reuse would be able to do about 3 flights a day (due to orbit time + needing to align to landing site again + some downtime) Even at the "low" rate of 1 a day, that's less than two weeks of flights. If they're way off their mark, one launch a week is 2.3 months. Not that I would take your bet, but it's not unthinkable.
- Animats 7y agoWell, crewed Dragon was supposed to fly this summer, then this fall, but will probably slip to 2020. The Boeing Starliner was supposed to fly uncrewed in 2018, then October 2019, and now Boeing is shipping it to the launch site but not giving a date.
- king07828 7y agoRight, and in response to the parent, a more interesting bet may be whether crewed Dragon flies first or a crewed starship flies first.