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You think there is a 100% that both are true? That there is no world in which they are not? Because I see a lot of worlds where at least one is not true. Moreov
by mruts 7y ago
You think there is a 100% that both are true? That there is no world in which they are not? Because I see a lot of worlds where at least one is not true. Moreover even if they are true, full self driving might take a really really long time.
All of this uncertainty needs to be taken into account in the DCF analysis. Time value of money, yada yada.
- deleted 7y ago[deleted]
- ghaff 7y agoSelf-driving for some value of most conditions seems inevitable but you’re probably looking at different use cases maturing over decades. The main wild card IMO is that general purpose self-driving turns out to be really hard and it’s cheaper for those with money to just hire drivers even after self-driving becomes technically viable. That’s dystopian though and there’s not much economic history to support the idea. Fusion seems iffier in the sense that other energy sources/techs just turn out to be better in one or more ways.