4 ms·

Yeah, whatever. Full self driving will happen. Waymo will be the first to it. And then Morgan Stanley will backtrack.

mruts 7y ago
You think there is a 100% that both are true? That there is no world in which they are not? Because I see a lot of worlds where at least one is not true. Moreover even if they are true, full self driving might take a really really long time. All of this uncertainty needs to be taken into account in the DCF analysis. Time value of money, yada yada.
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
- ghaff 7y ago
  Self-driving for some value of most conditions seems inevitable but you’re probably looking at different use cases maturing over decades. The main wild card IMO is that general purpose self-driving turns out to be really hard and it’s cheaper for those with money to just hire drivers even after self-driving becomes technically viable. That’s dystopian though and there’s not much economic history to support the idea. Fusion seems iffier in the sense that other energy sources/techs just turn out to be better in one or more ways.
goatinaboat 7y ago
Full self driving will happen. Yes, and so will nuclear fusion. But it will take much longer than anyone thought.
Jyaif 7y ago
Waymo should be the first in the western world, but in China I imagine that any barely working self-driving car service would be able to launch, provided it was Chinese-made.
tim333 7y ago
I agree full self driving will happen. It's one of those things like computer will beat humans at chess one day was. But as to Waymo being first that seems a bit up in the air. They may be in the lead at the moment but there's a fair bit to go and it only takes one competitor to come up with better algorithms.
- Grue3 7y ago
  >It's one of those things like computer will beat humans at chess one day was. No, those are completely different things. The rules of chess are set in stone. The rules of driving are based on communication - driving is an inherently social activity. Having to cover all the weird corner case situations that might occur on the road, fully autonomous driving is essentially equivalent to strong AI, and no one's remotely close to that yet.
  - perl4ever 7y ago
    It's not just that you need "strong AI" that can function in social situations, it's that you are frequently centimeters and milliseconds from disaster if that AI makes the wrong decision, unlike, say, a flying drone.
- xvector 7y ago
  There really is no competition. With the weight of Google’s CAPTCHA - billions of images trained on every week - and the fact that they are already FSD in one city makes this a no-brainer.

You think there is a 100% that both are true? That there is no world in which they are not? Because I see a lot of worlds where at least one is not true. Moreover even if they are true, full self driving might take a really really long time. All of this uncertainty needs to be taken into account in the DCF analysis. Time value of money, yada yada.

deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
ghaff 7y ago
Self-driving for some value of most conditions seems inevitable but you’re probably looking at different use cases maturing over decades. The main wild card IMO is that general purpose self-driving turns out to be really hard and it’s cheaper for those with money to just hire drivers even after self-driving becomes technically viable. That’s dystopian though and there’s not much economic history to support the idea. Fusion seems iffier in the sense that other energy sources/techs just turn out to be better in one or more ways.

goatinaboat 7y ago

Full self driving will happen. Yes, and so will nuclear fusion. But it will take much longer than anyone thought.

Jyaif 7y ago

Waymo should be the first in the western world, but in China I imagine that any barely working self-driving car service would be able to launch, provided it was Chinese-made.

tim333 7y ago

I agree full self driving will happen. It's one of those things like computer will beat humans at chess one day was. But as to Waymo being first that seems a bit up in the air. They may be in the lead at the moment but there's a fair bit to go and it only takes one competitor to come up with better algorithms.

Grue3 7y ago
>It's one of those things like computer will beat humans at chess one day was. No, those are completely different things. The rules of chess are set in stone. The rules of driving are based on communication - driving is an inherently social activity. Having to cover all the weird corner case situations that might occur on the road, fully autonomous driving is essentially equivalent to strong AI, and no one's remotely close to that yet.
- perl4ever 7y ago
  It's not just that you need "strong AI" that can function in social situations, it's that you are frequently centimeters and milliseconds from disaster if that AI makes the wrong decision, unlike, say, a flying drone.
xvector 7y ago
There really is no competition. With the weight of Google’s CAPTCHA - billions of images trained on every week - and the fact that they are already FSD in one city makes this a no-brainer.