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Hundreds of years? There’s a reasonable probability _human civilization_ doesn’t have hundreds of years on this planet.

james_s_tayler 7y ago
I've noticed that assumption is heavily baked in everywhere you look. I'll bet after the hundreds of thousands of years we have made it so far, humanity, in one form or another, will continue to persist.
- pmiller2 7y ago
  I didn’t say “humanity.” I said “human civilization.” I do think there’s hope for humanity, but I’m a lot more bearish about civilization.
  - nine_k 7y ago
    If human civilization collapses and humans go back to hunter-gatherer subsistence, it means death to about 95-97% of humans. Not precisely an extinction, but still not a lot of hope.
ekianjo 7y ago
There is always a non zero probability of mankind extinction but within hundreds of years it should be fairly, fairly low
- adrianN 7y ago
  Human civilization can die much easier than mankind. Civilizations have collapsed multiple times before. Back then the effects were localized because civilizations were localized. In today's globalized world the effects could be much more serious.
  - ekianjo 7y ago
    > Civilizations have collapsed multiple times before Yeah but it's not like the variables at work before are the same at work today. With the current set of variables, even LESS likely than ever than what you call the "current civilization" would collapse completely, because it's massively decentralized in terms of knowledge.
    - adrianN 7y ago
      That is of course true, but I think that the number of variables is so huge that nobody really knows why civilizations collapse. For example, while as you say knowledge is more distributed today, a lot fewer people know how to life self-sufficiently and knowledge is a lot more specialized that it used to be the cause. Proverbially nobody knows how to make a pencil from scratch.
deleted 7y ago
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I've noticed that assumption is heavily baked in everywhere you look. I'll bet after the hundreds of thousands of years we have made it so far, humanity, in one form or another, will continue to persist.

pmiller2 7y ago
I didn’t say “humanity.” I said “human civilization.” I do think there’s hope for humanity, but I’m a lot more bearish about civilization.
- nine_k 7y ago
  If human civilization collapses and humans go back to hunter-gatherer subsistence, it means death to about 95-97% of humans. Not precisely an extinction, but still not a lot of hope.

ekianjo 7y ago

There is always a non zero probability of mankind extinction but within hundreds of years it should be fairly, fairly low

adrianN 7y ago
Human civilization can die much easier than mankind. Civilizations have collapsed multiple times before. Back then the effects were localized because civilizations were localized. In today's globalized world the effects could be much more serious.
- ekianjo 7y ago
  > Civilizations have collapsed multiple times before Yeah but it's not like the variables at work before are the same at work today. With the current set of variables, even LESS likely than ever than what you call the "current civilization" would collapse completely, because it's massively decentralized in terms of knowledge.
  - adrianN 7y ago
    That is of course true, but I think that the number of variables is so huge that nobody really knows why civilizations collapse. For example, while as you say knowledge is more distributed today, a lot fewer people know how to life self-sufficiently and knowledge is a lot more specialized that it used to be the cause. Proverbially nobody knows how to make a pencil from scratch.

deleted 7y ago

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