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Their title: "The Real Reason Google May Fail" Your title: "The Real Reason Google Will Fail" A bit sensationalistic, no? Click fraud is a problem, but not a

Their title: "The Real Reason Google May Fail" Your title: "The Real Reason Google Will Fail" A bit sensationalistic, no? Click fraud is a problem, but not a huge one. It's always been a fact on the Internet, and it's not going anywhere. It's priced into the cost of ads. More important, I think, is the unsustainability of the current model itself. With 8% of surfers clicking 87% of ads (can't find the link, it was on here a while ago), and those 8% being an undesirable market, we're going to have to move towards impressions, rather than clickthroughs. Some sites have moved towards this model, and it sucks. The mandatory ads before Youtube videos are a prime example of this. Whereas AdSense is almost impossibly profitable considering how unobtrusive the ads are, the model we are moving toward represents a significant decrease in user experience. This, more than anything, represents a potential hazard for Google. Just as Search sucked in '98, advertising is far from solved. Someone will come up with a better advertising model, and it won't be Google. Google better hope they can acquire them before Apple does, or before they decide to pull a Google themselves and stay independent.

dnautics 16y ago
but google isn't just google search anymore, so even if some competitor comes up with a "better advertising model" will they be implementing it in many domains (search, free email client, youtube) at once?
- benologist 16y ago
  Google is still "just ads" even if they do have other services and popular properties to put those ads on, which is why someone else's better solution would be a threat. Does the next AdWords/AdSense need YouTube to succeed? No.
  - yhlasx 16y ago
    But this "just ads" is really widespread, when someone will come with a better solution, until they reach even 1% of what Google has, Google will come up with a better solution :) And no one would like to switch from expert like Google to some new guy
    - benologist 16y ago
      Lots of companies used to be really widespread, now they're dead or dying - AOL, Yahoo, Digg, MySpace, Altavista, etc. Google will have plenty of opportunity to fight for their position in the next round. Some companies can win that fight again and some can't, no way to know which category Google or anyone else falls in until after the fact.
      - yhlasx 16y ago
        Yes, there is always probability left for someone new to takeover. But it is really small, especially in this case. At least for now. While Google is making really smart strategic moves like android and chrome. And yes, Google will have LOTS of advantages in the next round for the position.
    - deleted 16y ago
      [deleted]
- redthrowaway 16y ago
  Google has a leg up by virtue of the fact it could deploy any new product massively and immediately, but that barrier to entry is hardly insurmountable. It just means the new paradigm would have to be significantly better than the current one, for the following three groups: 1) Advertisers. Companies would need to see a significant benefit to moving to the new platform. 2) Site owners. Either by virtue of UI or increased revenue, a new platform would have to offer a significant advantage to site owners to spur adoption. 3) Users. This one's basically optional, and included in 2). A new advertising platform would have to be unobtrusive enough to not piss off users drastically more than current ads, but a strong enough showing in 1 & 2 would make that less important. Ideally, a new platform would offer ads that users want to see, by virtue of being either entertaining, relevant, or both. See movie previews in theatres for a good example of this.
- damoncali 16y ago
  Financially speaking, Google is very much "just search".
spacemanaki 16y ago
> With 8% of surfers clicking 87% of ads (can't find the link, it was on here a while ago) http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2101163 http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2101163 As many people pointed out, that study was relavent to "display ads" only, so Google's context ads aren't really in that same boat.

dnautics 16y ago

but google isn't just google search anymore, so even if some competitor comes up with a "better advertising model" will they be implementing it in many domains (search, free email client, youtube) at once?

benologist 16y ago
Google is still "just ads" even if they do have other services and popular properties to put those ads on, which is why someone else's better solution would be a threat. Does the next AdWords/AdSense need YouTube to succeed? No.
- yhlasx 16y ago
  But this "just ads" is really widespread, when someone will come with a better solution, until they reach even 1% of what Google has, Google will come up with a better solution :) And no one would like to switch from expert like Google to some new guy
  - benologist 16y ago
    Lots of companies used to be really widespread, now they're dead or dying - AOL, Yahoo, Digg, MySpace, Altavista, etc. Google will have plenty of opportunity to fight for their position in the next round. Some companies can win that fight again and some can't, no way to know which category Google or anyone else falls in until after the fact.
    - yhlasx 16y ago
      Yes, there is always probability left for someone new to takeover. But it is really small, especially in this case. At least for now. While Google is making really smart strategic moves like android and chrome. And yes, Google will have LOTS of advantages in the next round for the position.
  - deleted 16y ago
    [deleted]
redthrowaway 16y ago
Google has a leg up by virtue of the fact it could deploy any new product massively and immediately, but that barrier to entry is hardly insurmountable. It just means the new paradigm would have to be significantly better than the current one, for the following three groups: 1) Advertisers. Companies would need to see a significant benefit to moving to the new platform. 2) Site owners. Either by virtue of UI or increased revenue, a new platform would have to offer a significant advantage to site owners to spur adoption. 3) Users. This one's basically optional, and included in 2). A new advertising platform would have to be unobtrusive enough to not piss off users drastically more than current ads, but a strong enough showing in 1 & 2 would make that less important. Ideally, a new platform would offer ads that users want to see, by virtue of being either entertaining, relevant, or both. See movie previews in theatres for a good example of this.
damoncali 16y ago
Financially speaking, Google is very much "just search".

spacemanaki 16y ago

> With 8% of surfers clicking 87% of ads (can't find the link, it was on here a while ago) http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2101163 http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2101163 As many people pointed out, that study was relavent to "display ads" only, so Google's context ads aren't really in that same boat.