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> I'd get one if I didn't have crushing doubt about their ability to service their cars. Or stay in business long-term. Are you serious? That false narrative f

by xedeon 7y ago

> I'd get one if I didn't have crushing doubt about their ability to service their cars. Or stay in business long-term. Are you serious? That false narrative fueled by FUD has been the talking point by short-sellers since 2008 (Only Tesla and Ford survived the 2008 market crash btw). It's now 2019 and you would think people would know any better.

navigatesol 7y ago
False narrative? The "narrative" is their financial data. The fact that there is so much capital floating around to keep bad businesses afloat doesn't make them good businesses. I'm sure the shady silicon valley dealings are isolated to WeWork, even though Tesla is being sued for similar self-dealing. Good luck!
- xedeon 7y ago
  Netflix Revenue — $17 billion Gross Profit — $5.8 billion EBITDA — $2 billion Market Cap — $111 billion Debt — $14 billion Enterprise Value — $125 billion Tesla Revenue — $25B Gross Profit — $4B EBITDA — $2.33B Market Cap — $39B Debt — $14B Enterprise Value — $54B ------------------- Uber Revenue — $12 billion Gross Profit — $4 billion EBITDA — negative $7.6 billion Market Cap — $53 billion Debt — $6.2 billion Enterprise Value — $50.5 billion Tesla Revenue — $25B Gross Profit — $4B EBITDA — $2.33B Market Cap — $39B Debt — $14B Enterprise Value — $54B I can go on but hopefully you get the point.
  - qroshan 7y ago
    Holy shit! The lies that you have put Tesla's Q2 Gross Profit was 900 million with a Gross profit of -170 Million. Where did you get the 25B Gross Profit from?
    - DuskStar 7y ago
      > Revenue — $25B Gross Profit — $4B I think this means that the Gross Profit was $4B, not 25. And Gross Profit is Revenue - Cost of Goods Sold [0], so they may still have had losses after R&D and expansion. The EBITDA number of $2.33B also seems reasonable as a "last four quarters" measure here [1] (which actually lists $2.35B). 0: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/grossprofit.asp https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/grossprofit.asp 1: https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/TSLA/tesla/ebitda https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/TSLA/tesla/ebitda
    - xedeon 7y ago
      > Holy shit! The lies that you have put Do you actually know how read financials? I hope you don't actually dabble in active trading... If you do, you should stop now and just put your hard-earned money into an index fund and call it a day.
- bdamm 7y ago
  Partly I think this is motivated by the law that gives tax breaks to companies that show losses. So then no big surprise that many tech companies show losses, regardless of their corporate health. Amazon is one; they've almost never shown a profit ever, and when they have it has been exceedingly slight (surely an accounting "mistake"). Yet they are still in business over 20 years later, and that success has catapulted multiple individuals into the billionaire range. Shady? Definitely. Too much capital? Clearly not, since Amazon has out-performed any possible influx of capital. There is clearly some dark art in accounting, but I don't think it's always because the companies are covering up bad business. It might be because they're trying to make as little taxable profit as possible.
- mediaman 7y ago
  If you take a closer look at their financial data, you'll find that it's quite a bit better than what people repeat. In Fiscal Year 2018, they had positive operating cash flow of $2.1 billion. Part of the reason for the difference between accounting earnings (a loss) and actual cash flow is the huge depreciation charges ($1.9 billion) for historical capital expenditures, versus present-day cash outflows. In that year, Tesla still spent a lot of cap-ex dollars on Model 3 capacity and battery capacity (to the tune of $2.3 billion), so overall cash flow was slightly negative - about $200 million for the year, off of $21 billion in revenue. In the six months since then, they're reported additional positive operating cash flow: $224mm off of $10.9 billion in revenue. This is a company experiencing 47% y/y revenue growth for the first half of the year. Yes, they're spending on cap-ex, but they are producing positive operating cash flow and their total operating+cap-ex cash flow is running a little in the red, but <1% of revenues. And in context, they have $5 billion in cash and $10 billion in short term assets. Tesla is not at significant financial risk.
  - Phillipharryt 7y ago
    For a company not at significant financial risk why is their credit rating so low? Investors shouldn't be concerned about repayment if Tesla is likely to remain solvent.
    - xedeon 7y ago
      If you rely solely on credit ratings or other noise for investment advice, I have bad news for you.
      - Phillipharryt 7y ago
        Don't be so condescending. It's a measure of solvency and they don't drop it to junk just for fun.
qroshan 7y ago
Huh?, 2008 they were not in survival mode. There wasn't anything there for Tesla to crash. Tesla now operates in Billions of dollars. A 10% miss in sales results in Billions in losses.
- xedeon 7y ago
  > Huh?, 2008 they were not in survival mode. It sure was! They had some troubles delivering the very first Roadsters and Elon had to use his own money to keep the company afloat (also SpaceX) and continue making payroll. > A 10% miss in sales results in Billions in losses. Well that's how the market inherently works you know? Tesla vehicle sales have also been rising year-over-year so your 10% miss does not apply.
- confiscate 7y ago
  that makes no sense like you said in 2008 there wasn't anything there. They lose millions the whole company dies now Tesla operates in billions of dollars. They lose billions it's still only 10%
  - xedeon 7y ago
    Since 2008.... Reading comprehension much?
icelancer 7y ago
The first point is VERY valid. There are tons of stories of people waiting weeks for a simple door repair. The second one is kinda whatever. I don't actually fear they will go out of business. But neither do I have infinite confidence in their business model.
- xedeon 7y ago
  > There are tons of stories of people waiting weeks for a simple door repair. Once again, tons imply that it’s the majority. Unless you have actual verifiable data to cite, you’re just operating on opinionated data.
Fins 7y ago
Can we please stop with ridiculous BS about evil shortsellers? Would you believe that it's martians spreading "fud" about Tesla, if Elon says so? And that would be at least as accurate as the shorts nonsense.
- xedeon 7y ago
  > Can we please stop with ridiculous BS about evil shortsellers? Have you been living under a rock? I didn't even know about the insane short interest and the countess $TSLAQ Twitter trolls until I became a Tesla owner. Which is apparently been there since the early days. Is it BS because it does not fit your narrative? or is it a baseless claim? If so, can you please cite sources? > Would you believe that it's martians spreading "fud" about Tesla, if Elon says so? Is that your attempt at insulting my intelligence? I look at everything objectively... I typically stay quiet if I don't know enough on a particular topic or don't have anecdotes.
  - Fins 7y ago
    There is no "insane short interest" in Tesla. Just because Elon might want you to think that it is some nefarious conspiracy and not Tesla's incompetency in many aspects of making a car (pretty much anything pother than making the best available electric powertrain, really) and his personal douchebaggery that are causing problems. That canard about Tesla being the most shorted stock on the planet since the beginning of times has been debunked so many times it's not evenv interesting anymore. I have no interest in discussing your intelligence, but but once you start bringing out "shortseller fud" your credibility goes straight out of the window. Even claiming that Elon is behaving like a jerk because he's hiding from hit squads hired by Saudi Aramco would be both more plausible and make more sense.
    - xedeon 7y ago
      > There is no "insane short interest" in Tesla. Just because Elon might want you to think that it is some nefarious conspiracy.... Really? Because Elon said so you think I blindly believe it? What a snooty baseless statement. What is this then? https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/tsla/short-interest https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/tsla/short-int... Also this: http://shortsqueeze.com/shortinterest/stock/TSLA.htm http://shortsqueeze.com/shortinterest/stock/TSLA.htm More: https://www.reddit.com/r/teslainvestorsclub/comments/brj8zf/tsla_short_interest_is_at_atm_32_and_57mill/ https://www.reddit.com/r/teslainvestorsclub/comments/brj8zf/... Should I go on? Let's stick to just facts, and get off your high horse.
Phillipharryt 7y ago
Tesla bonds are rated deeeep into junk. Comparatively Toyota is high in the investment grade as are VW's. Having junk long term bonds is not great, having junk short term ones is downright scary. This is even worse considering it's a company that so desperately needs the ability to get cheap loans. It's not a narrative without its facts, it's a speculation based on concerning evidence.
- xedeon 7y ago
  https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21085844 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21085844

by xedeon 7y ago

navigatesol 7y ago

False narrative? The "narrative" is their financial data. The fact that there is so much capital floating around to keep bad businesses afloat doesn't make them good businesses. I'm sure the shady silicon valley dealings are isolated to WeWork, even though Tesla is being sued for similar self-dealing. Good luck!

xedeon 7y ago
Netflix Revenue — $17 billion Gross Profit — $5.8 billion EBITDA — $2 billion Market Cap — $111 billion Debt — $14 billion Enterprise Value — $125 billion Tesla Revenue — $25B Gross Profit — $4B EBITDA — $2.33B Market Cap — $39B Debt — $14B Enterprise Value — $54B ------------------- Uber Revenue — $12 billion Gross Profit — $4 billion EBITDA — negative $7.6 billion Market Cap — $53 billion Debt — $6.2 billion Enterprise Value — $50.5 billion Tesla Revenue — $25B Gross Profit — $4B EBITDA — $2.33B Market Cap — $39B Debt — $14B Enterprise Value — $54B I can go on but hopefully you get the point.
- qroshan 7y ago
  Holy shit! The lies that you have put Tesla's Q2 Gross Profit was 900 million with a Gross profit of -170 Million. Where did you get the 25B Gross Profit from?
  - DuskStar 7y ago
    > Revenue — $25B Gross Profit — $4B I think this means that the Gross Profit was $4B, not 25. And Gross Profit is Revenue - Cost of Goods Sold [0], so they may still have had losses after R&D and expansion. The EBITDA number of $2.33B also seems reasonable as a "last four quarters" measure here [1] (which actually lists $2.35B). 0: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/grossprofit.asp https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/grossprofit.asp 1: https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/TSLA/tesla/ebitda https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/TSLA/tesla/ebitda
  - xedeon 7y ago
    > Holy shit! The lies that you have put Do you actually know how read financials? I hope you don't actually dabble in active trading... If you do, you should stop now and just put your hard-earned money into an index fund and call it a day.
bdamm 7y ago
Partly I think this is motivated by the law that gives tax breaks to companies that show losses. So then no big surprise that many tech companies show losses, regardless of their corporate health. Amazon is one; they've almost never shown a profit ever, and when they have it has been exceedingly slight (surely an accounting "mistake"). Yet they are still in business over 20 years later, and that success has catapulted multiple individuals into the billionaire range. Shady? Definitely. Too much capital? Clearly not, since Amazon has out-performed any possible influx of capital. There is clearly some dark art in accounting, but I don't think it's always because the companies are covering up bad business. It might be because they're trying to make as little taxable profit as possible.
mediaman 7y ago
If you take a closer look at their financial data, you'll find that it's quite a bit better than what people repeat. In Fiscal Year 2018, they had positive operating cash flow of $2.1 billion. Part of the reason for the difference between accounting earnings (a loss) and actual cash flow is the huge depreciation charges ($1.9 billion) for historical capital expenditures, versus present-day cash outflows. In that year, Tesla still spent a lot of cap-ex dollars on Model 3 capacity and battery capacity (to the tune of $2.3 billion), so overall cash flow was slightly negative - about $200 million for the year, off of $21 billion in revenue. In the six months since then, they're reported additional positive operating cash flow: $224mm off of $10.9 billion in revenue. This is a company experiencing 47% y/y revenue growth for the first half of the year. Yes, they're spending on cap-ex, but they are producing positive operating cash flow and their total operating+cap-ex cash flow is running a little in the red, but <1% of revenues. And in context, they have $5 billion in cash and $10 billion in short term assets. Tesla is not at significant financial risk.
- Phillipharryt 7y ago
  For a company not at significant financial risk why is their credit rating so low? Investors shouldn't be concerned about repayment if Tesla is likely to remain solvent.
  - xedeon 7y ago
    If you rely solely on credit ratings or other noise for investment advice, I have bad news for you.
    - Phillipharryt 7y ago
      Don't be so condescending. It's a measure of solvency and they don't drop it to junk just for fun.

qroshan 7y ago

Huh?, 2008 they were not in survival mode. There wasn't anything there for Tesla to crash. Tesla now operates in Billions of dollars. A 10% miss in sales results in Billions in losses.

xedeon 7y ago
> Huh?, 2008 they were not in survival mode. It sure was! They had some troubles delivering the very first Roadsters and Elon had to use his own money to keep the company afloat (also SpaceX) and continue making payroll. > A 10% miss in sales results in Billions in losses. Well that's how the market inherently works you know? Tesla vehicle sales have also been rising year-over-year so your 10% miss does not apply.
confiscate 7y ago
that makes no sense like you said in 2008 there wasn't anything there. They lose millions the whole company dies now Tesla operates in billions of dollars. They lose billions it's still only 10%
- xedeon 7y ago
  Since 2008.... Reading comprehension much?

icelancer 7y ago

The first point is VERY valid. There are tons of stories of people waiting weeks for a simple door repair. The second one is kinda whatever. I don't actually fear they will go out of business. But neither do I have infinite confidence in their business model.

xedeon 7y ago
> There are tons of stories of people waiting weeks for a simple door repair. Once again, tons imply that it’s the majority. Unless you have actual verifiable data to cite, you’re just operating on opinionated data.

Fins 7y ago

Can we please stop with ridiculous BS about evil shortsellers? Would you believe that it's martians spreading "fud" about Tesla, if Elon says so? And that would be at least as accurate as the shorts nonsense.

xedeon 7y ago
> Can we please stop with ridiculous BS about evil shortsellers? Have you been living under a rock? I didn't even know about the insane short interest and the countess $TSLAQ Twitter trolls until I became a Tesla owner. Which is apparently been there since the early days. Is it BS because it does not fit your narrative? or is it a baseless claim? If so, can you please cite sources? > Would you believe that it's martians spreading "fud" about Tesla, if Elon says so? Is that your attempt at insulting my intelligence? I look at everything objectively... I typically stay quiet if I don't know enough on a particular topic or don't have anecdotes.
- Fins 7y ago
  There is no "insane short interest" in Tesla. Just because Elon might want you to think that it is some nefarious conspiracy and not Tesla's incompetency in many aspects of making a car (pretty much anything pother than making the best available electric powertrain, really) and his personal douchebaggery that are causing problems. That canard about Tesla being the most shorted stock on the planet since the beginning of times has been debunked so many times it's not evenv interesting anymore. I have no interest in discussing your intelligence, but but once you start bringing out "shortseller fud" your credibility goes straight out of the window. Even claiming that Elon is behaving like a jerk because he's hiding from hit squads hired by Saudi Aramco would be both more plausible and make more sense.
  - xedeon 7y ago
    > There is no "insane short interest" in Tesla. Just because Elon might want you to think that it is some nefarious conspiracy.... Really? Because Elon said so you think I blindly believe it? What a snooty baseless statement. What is this then? https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/tsla/short-interest https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/tsla/short-int... Also this: http://shortsqueeze.com/shortinterest/stock/TSLA.htm http://shortsqueeze.com/shortinterest/stock/TSLA.htm More: https://www.reddit.com/r/teslainvestorsclub/comments/brj8zf/tsla_short_interest_is_at_atm_32_and_57mill/ https://www.reddit.com/r/teslainvestorsclub/comments/brj8zf/... Should I go on? Let's stick to just facts, and get off your high horse.

Phillipharryt 7y ago

Tesla bonds are rated deeeep into junk. Comparatively Toyota is high in the investment grade as are VW's. Having junk long term bonds is not great, having junk short term ones is downright scary. This is even worse considering it's a company that so desperately needs the ability to get cheap loans. It's not a narrative without its facts, it's a speculation based on concerning evidence.

xedeon 7y ago
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21085844 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21085844