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"On the other hand for offshore wind farms in Denmark the normalised load factor falls from 39% at age 0 to 15% at age 10." https://www.ref.org.uk/attachments/

by jweir 7y ago

"On the other hand for offshore wind farms in Denmark the normalised load factor falls from 39% at age 0 to 15% at age 10." https://www.ref.org.uk/attachments/article/280/ref.hughes.19.12.12.pdf https://www.ref.org.uk/attachments/article/280/ref.hughes.19... The title should say has the capacity to power 1M homes. No wind farm ever generates to capacity. And they age very quickly. This tech maybe better and last longer than in the quoted, but it will still degrade over time. So in 10 years maybe it will be 20%? Wind is not reliable – so where does the power come from when the wind is not blowing? If you say batteries, then you need excess generation (a lot) and a lot of batteries.

konschubert 7y ago
Wait, they lose 60% of their energy production potential within 10 years? This number seems unbelievable. Are the rotors falling off the towers and not getting replaced? Are you sure that number is correct ?
- konschubert 7y ago
  I suspect that these numbers simply reflect the fact that recent installations have higher capacity factors than installations 10 years ago. These numbers seem to show the progress in wind power technology over the past 10 years and not a degradation of existing installs
- llukas 7y ago
  "There are two plausible explanations for the observed decline in average load factors as wind farms age. The first is that the turbines become less efficient over time as a result of mechanical wear and tear, erosion of the turbine blades and related factors. The second is that the turbines experience more frequent breakdowns and their operators take more time to bring them back into service because they are less concerned about the performance of older plants. Both reasons may be relevant in different circumstances and it is not possible to identify a primary explanation from the data. "
davedx 7y ago
> Where does the power come from when the wind is not blowing? * Gas peakers * More interconnects, particularly to places with pumped hydro resources * Batteries (yes, it needs a heck of a lot. But battery tech & economics are still improving) * Solar PV (we can build interconnects to the larger installations being built closer to the equator in places like N Africa) Also worth noting the citation you posted is from 2012. Wind turbines have changed significantly just in the last 5 years. I wonder what the numbers look like today, in particular load factor decay?
- ThomPete 7y ago
  Last year Denmarks weather was amazing, which meant no wind at all. What was the solution? Coal from germany who despite having great weather too and based on sun couldnt do anything else. This is the reality. The two countries with the supposedly most agressive use of alternatives cant even support each other without the use of coal.
  - stelonix 7y ago
    Goes to show the climate change we're facing can only be properly countered while (mostly) maintaining nowadays' lifestyle if we, as societies, take caring of being less "every man for himself" and work more toward a solidarity-based world-view. Basically, we need to stop pretending and start acting the Human Rigths we created about 70 years ago. Individualism has failed, animosity culture has too. A simple solution would be to have the global power grid more connected: when it's winter on the north, it's summer on the south, so the winter countries could easily get energy from say, Sahara's Desert's solar plants. It's just an example. An interconnected sustainable grid would foster the necessity of developed countries properly paying back to the atrocities committed to to underdeveloped countries, with things such as: 1) Investing in development, education in such countries 2) Investing in sustainable energy generation there 3) Subsidizing the costs of much 1st world technology in order for those countries to rise out of extreme poverty Again, just simple examples; used African continent but could be extended to many other places. We need a "Green New Deal" because extreme capitalism has failed to a point we're now facing our own extinction if things continue like they are. Sure, sounds like wishful thinking, or something that would require some kind of ultimate class-based warfare, but I do believe this path can be achieve without a bloodstained revolution. The alternative is to be enslaved by the plutocracy and eventually to die off as a species, in the far future. Or bear arms and get your hards dirty, but I'm not an advocate for that. What Greta has said in the UN, I agree with her: the current way dominant classes are acting upon the world's most damning issue seems to be a simple act of looking with a blasé face and not caring. If the wealthy believes all those billions are just going to watch as life becomes utterly difficulty on this planet, they may find not everyone is as peaceful as I am. In short, there's no sustainable future with the way capitalism operates currently.
bjelkeman-again 7y ago
The solution seems to be diversity in supply. In 2017 Denmark had 45% wind with a total of renewable being 66%. The imports are mainly from Sweden and Germany, (possibly Norway) where renewables (hydro and wind) and nuclear dominate. Denmark has a significant portion of coal in district heating, but the portion is also shrinking. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electricity_sector_in_Denmark https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electricity_sector_in_Denmar...
- ThomPete 7y ago
  Be careful here. Thats electricity not energy. Electricity is only around 20% of the energy needs.
  - bjelkeman-again 7y ago
    The person I replied to talked about electricity. Yes, the energy supply is different. Electricity seems to supply about 17% of energy consumption in Denmark. I was trying to be brief. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_in_Denmark https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_in_Denmark
    - ThomPete 7y ago
      Ok. It's just that people seem to always confuse energy with electricity (not saying you are but people in general) and just want to make sure it's clear otherwise it would give the impression that Denmark (or Germany) somehow found a way to solve their energy needs through alternative energy. They haven't not even by a longshot and it's made it more expensive which might be fine in rich countries but definitely isn't a recipe for the poor countries.
      - bjelkeman-again 7y ago
        Indeed. We do have to solve the issue for everyone though, or we are hosed.
        7y ago
adrianN 7y ago
There is a tradeoff between how many batteries and power-to-gas plants you need and how large your excess production and how well connected you grid it.

by jweir 7y ago

konschubert 7y ago

Wait, they lose 60% of their energy production potential within 10 years? This number seems unbelievable. Are the rotors falling off the towers and not getting replaced? Are you sure that number is correct ?

konschubert 7y ago
I suspect that these numbers simply reflect the fact that recent installations have higher capacity factors than installations 10 years ago. These numbers seem to show the progress in wind power technology over the past 10 years and not a degradation of existing installs
llukas 7y ago
"There are two plausible explanations for the observed decline in average load factors as wind farms age. The first is that the turbines become less efficient over time as a result of mechanical wear and tear, erosion of the turbine blades and related factors. The second is that the turbines experience more frequent breakdowns and their operators take more time to bring them back into service because they are less concerned about the performance of older plants. Both reasons may be relevant in different circumstances and it is not possible to identify a primary explanation from the data. "

davedx 7y ago

> Where does the power come from when the wind is not blowing? * Gas peakers * More interconnects, particularly to places with pumped hydro resources * Batteries (yes, it needs a heck of a lot. But battery tech & economics are still improving) * Solar PV (we can build interconnects to the larger installations being built closer to the equator in places like N Africa) Also worth noting the citation you posted is from 2012. Wind turbines have changed significantly just in the last 5 years. I wonder what the numbers look like today, in particular load factor decay?

ThomPete 7y ago
Last year Denmarks weather was amazing, which meant no wind at all. What was the solution? Coal from germany who despite having great weather too and based on sun couldnt do anything else. This is the reality. The two countries with the supposedly most agressive use of alternatives cant even support each other without the use of coal.
- stelonix 7y ago
  Goes to show the climate change we're facing can only be properly countered while (mostly) maintaining nowadays' lifestyle if we, as societies, take caring of being less "every man for himself" and work more toward a solidarity-based world-view. Basically, we need to stop pretending and start acting the Human Rigths we created about 70 years ago. Individualism has failed, animosity culture has too. A simple solution would be to have the global power grid more connected: when it's winter on the north, it's summer on the south, so the winter countries could easily get energy from say, Sahara's Desert's solar plants. It's just an example. An interconnected sustainable grid would foster the necessity of developed countries properly paying back to the atrocities committed to to underdeveloped countries, with things such as: 1) Investing in development, education in such countries 2) Investing in sustainable energy generation there 3) Subsidizing the costs of much 1st world technology in order for those countries to rise out of extreme poverty Again, just simple examples; used African continent but could be extended to many other places. We need a "Green New Deal" because extreme capitalism has failed to a point we're now facing our own extinction if things continue like they are. Sure, sounds like wishful thinking, or something that would require some kind of ultimate class-based warfare, but I do believe this path can be achieve without a bloodstained revolution. The alternative is to be enslaved by the plutocracy and eventually to die off as a species, in the far future. Or bear arms and get your hards dirty, but I'm not an advocate for that. What Greta has said in the UN, I agree with her: the current way dominant classes are acting upon the world's most damning issue seems to be a simple act of looking with a blasé face and not caring. If the wealthy believes all those billions are just going to watch as life becomes utterly difficulty on this planet, they may find not everyone is as peaceful as I am. In short, there's no sustainable future with the way capitalism operates currently.

bjelkeman-again 7y ago

The solution seems to be diversity in supply. In 2017 Denmark had 45% wind with a total of renewable being 66%. The imports are mainly from Sweden and Germany, (possibly Norway) where renewables (hydro and wind) and nuclear dominate. Denmark has a significant portion of coal in district heating, but the portion is also shrinking. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electricity_sector_in_Denmark https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electricity_sector_in_Denmar...

ThomPete 7y ago
Be careful here. Thats electricity not energy. Electricity is only around 20% of the energy needs.
- bjelkeman-again 7y ago
  The person I replied to talked about electricity. Yes, the energy supply is different. Electricity seems to supply about 17% of energy consumption in Denmark. I was trying to be brief. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_in_Denmark https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_in_Denmark
  - ThomPete 7y ago
    Ok. It's just that people seem to always confuse energy with electricity (not saying you are but people in general) and just want to make sure it's clear otherwise it would give the impression that Denmark (or Germany) somehow found a way to solve their energy needs through alternative energy. They haven't not even by a longshot and it's made it more expensive which might be fine in rich countries but definitely isn't a recipe for the poor countries.
    - bjelkeman-again 7y ago
      Indeed. We do have to solve the issue for everyone though, or we are hosed.
      - 7y ago

adrianN 7y ago

There is a tradeoff between how many batteries and power-to-gas plants you need and how large your excess production and how well connected you grid it.