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Was it the one where he also assigns a probability rate to his prediction? i.e. "Trump will be removed from the presidency - 90%", and then at the end of the ye
by quacked 7y ago
Was it the one where he also assigns a probability rate to his prediction? i.e. "Trump will be removed from the presidency - 90%", and then at the end of the year he calculates all his predictions (which are True/False by nature) and weighs them based on how certain he was to determine a marker of how accurate he is.
- SlowRobotAhead 7y agoYes! That’s the one I think. Thanks, that’ll help me find it next year for the thread that will invariably have the same predictions :)
- quacked 7y agohttps://slatestarcodex.com/2019/01/25/predictions-for-2019/ https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/01/25/predictions-for-2019/ I think he actually predicted that Trump would remain the president, but I've always found the predictions post as strange. It seems like he's making a bunch of safe bets and scoring them safely, and then declaring himself accurate as a result. "What everything thinks is most likely is probably most likely, so you should listen to what I have to say" would be the takeaway, which isn't that interesting.