> Figure out how to do this is a task this is the crux of the issue. on average you can estimate six month of work if you spend two weeks chopping it into tin

> Figure out how to do this is a task this is the crux of the issue. on average you can estimate six month of work if you spend two weeks chopping it into tiny bits. rarely management allow that to happen and developers are rushed in with aggressive randomness. these "developers are bad at estimating" pieces are mostly people that try to estimate effort from complexity which is the wrong approach a priory because complexity hides the project unknowns, and this methodology, along all other comparative methods, is just a Gaussian curve built out off gut feelings: sometimes converges to a realistic estimate for large enough values, but more often than not the center just shows the developer team bias.