4 ms·

He’s forgetting that Uber’s goal is to be a driverless platform in which case they’d capture significant portions of the drivers margin. Now a software company.

He’s forgetting that Uber’s goal is to be a driverless platform in which case they’d capture significant portions of the drivers margin. Now a software company. On Vision Fund, he seems to think that there is only one viable VC model. I happen to disagree. Warren Buffet made a lot of money investing in boring companies, and now technology is spilling into ancient markets to transform them. Seems like those companies could be just as big if not sufficiently bigger than the incumbent.

deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
Barrin92 7y ago
there's no particular reason to believe why Uber should 1. survive the years (more likely decades) until autonomous driving is actually ready and more importantly, why Uber would be in a great position to capitalise on this, given that they don't actually own any cars. Any large car manufacturer would be perfectly well positioned to partner up with an app startup to deliver autonomous sharing services themselves, given that they already have control over the distribution of the vehicles. Or one might even imagine that blockchain technology eventually lives up to its hype and some distributed solution makes the need for an intermediary unnecessary altogether.
- everythingswan 7y ago
  I think the value of a brand is under-estimated by HN in general. Brands make people do irrational things and brands do form moats. So while the hardware might be owned by someone else, is it hard to imagine that Uber might be the first association that 1bn people make with "needing a ride"? My answer is no, it's not hard to get there given what I know. No doubt that car manufacturers will partner with a non-Uber software company. And Uber will partner with someone for hardware. I feel like we could look at how industries consolidate and have an educated guess about how it will play out: some car manufacturers combine to gain more leverage, some create their own proprietary software, some try opening up their cars to multiple software options, one manufacturer exclusively partners with Uber, etc. Phones and computers come to mind as probably sharing _some_ parallels. So I think the question in our simple discussion is whether the value of the brand and internal knowledge of the software side (data, et al) outweighs the value of having the hardware figured out. And maybe given that this is complicated, it's less about who is in a stronger position and more about who executes better while pursuing that strategy.
Despegar 7y ago
I don't understand how people think self-driving is Uber's solution. Right now drivers are a variable cost. Is Uber going to buy or lease fleets of self-driving cars (that will depreciate and need to be replaced)? That seems like a CapEx heavy business and it's not clear it's a better one from what they have right now, which is only possible because it's a giant labor law hack at scale.
- tmh79 7y ago
  uber will likely be the demand aggregator for self driving fleets, as well as own a medium sized self driving fleet, similar to how amazon is a demand aggregator for online retail, as well as maintaining its own physical products for high profit/targetable areas.
paxys 7y ago
> Uber’s goal is to be a driverless platform Everyone keeps using this argument but I don't buy it. Uber itself hasn't once stated that this is their goal, not even to shareholders. When the company was founded in 2008 self driving cars weren't on anyone's radar. And it ignores the fact that if/when self driving cars become viable the entire "ridesharing" landscape will be instantly changed, and Uber will not have any inherent advantages over Google, Cruise, all the auto manufacturers and any other one of the 50+ companies currently in that space. Rather than connect riders and drivers they would have to buy and maintain vehicles in every city in the world. Uber is currently, at best, keeping the self driving option open by putting some research dollars into it. The fact that they are betting the future of their company on it is just online speculation.
- randomsearch 7y ago
  I think that argument was dropped, even by Uber, after the fatality. One of the reasons I’m sceptical about Uber is the rotating mission plan.
- mbesto 7y ago
  > Uber itself hasn't once stated that this is their goal, not even to shareholders. Uhhh what? This is patently false. So, like maybe, people think that this is Uber's strategy, because they literally dictated it was part of their strategy. Autonomous vehicle is mentioned 103 times in their S-1. [0] We also hope to add autonomous vehicles, delivery drones, and vertical takeoff and landing vehicles to our network, along with other future innovations. Our Autonomous Driving Strategy We are investing in technology to power the next generation of transportation. Our Advanced Technologies Group (“ATG”) focuses on developing autonomous vehicle technologies, which we believe have the long-term potential to provide safer and more efficient rides and deliveries to consumers, as well as lower prices. ATG was established in 2015 in Pittsburgh with 40 researchers from Carnegie Robotics and Carnegie Mellon University. ATG has primary engineering offices in Pittsburgh, San Francisco, and Toronto with over 1,000 employees. ATG has built over 250 self-driving vehicles, collected data from millions of autonomous vehicle testing miles, and completed tens of thousands of passenger trips. Along the way to a potential future autonomous vehicle world, we believe that there will be a long period of hybrid autonomy, in which autonomous vehicles will be deployed gradually against specific use cases while Drivers continue to serve most consumer demand. As we solve specific autonomous use cases, we will deploy autonomous vehicles against them. Such situations may include trips along a standard, well-mapped route in a predictable environment in good weather. In other situations, such as those that involve substantial traffic, complex routes, or unusual weather conditions, we will continue to rely on Drivers. Moreover, high-demand events, such as concerts or sporting events, will likely exceed the capacity of a highly utilized, fully autonomous vehicle fleet and require the dynamic addition of Drivers to the network in real time. Our regional on-the-ground operations teams will be critical to maintaining reliable supply for such high-demand events. Deciding which trip receives a vehicle driven by a Driver and which receives an autonomous vehicle, and deploying both in real time while maintaining liquidity in all situations, is a dynamic that we believe is imperative for the success of an autonomous vehicle future. Accordingly, we believe that we will be uniquely suited for this dynamic during the expected long hybrid period of co-existence of Drivers and autonomous vehicles. Drivers are therefore a critical and differentiating advantage for us and will continue to be our valued partners for the long-term. We will continue to partner with original equipment manufacturers (“OEMs”) and other technology companies to determine how to most effectively leverage our network during the transition to autonomous vehicle technologies. Our Growth Strategy - Investing in advanced technologies, including autonomous vehicle technologies. [0] -https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1543151/000119312519103850/d647752ds1.htm https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1543151/000119312519...

deleted 7y ago

[deleted]

Barrin92 7y ago

there's no particular reason to believe why Uber should 1. survive the years (more likely decades) until autonomous driving is actually ready and more importantly, why Uber would be in a great position to capitalise on this, given that they don't actually own any cars. Any large car manufacturer would be perfectly well positioned to partner up with an app startup to deliver autonomous sharing services themselves, given that they already have control over the distribution of the vehicles. Or one might even imagine that blockchain technology eventually lives up to its hype and some distributed solution makes the need for an intermediary unnecessary altogether.

everythingswan 7y ago
I think the value of a brand is under-estimated by HN in general. Brands make people do irrational things and brands do form moats. So while the hardware might be owned by someone else, is it hard to imagine that Uber might be the first association that 1bn people make with "needing a ride"? My answer is no, it's not hard to get there given what I know. No doubt that car manufacturers will partner with a non-Uber software company. And Uber will partner with someone for hardware. I feel like we could look at how industries consolidate and have an educated guess about how it will play out: some car manufacturers combine to gain more leverage, some create their own proprietary software, some try opening up their cars to multiple software options, one manufacturer exclusively partners with Uber, etc. Phones and computers come to mind as probably sharing _some_ parallels. So I think the question in our simple discussion is whether the value of the brand and internal knowledge of the software side (data, et al) outweighs the value of having the hardware figured out. And maybe given that this is complicated, it's less about who is in a stronger position and more about who executes better while pursuing that strategy.

Despegar 7y ago

I don't understand how people think self-driving is Uber's solution. Right now drivers are a variable cost. Is Uber going to buy or lease fleets of self-driving cars (that will depreciate and need to be replaced)? That seems like a CapEx heavy business and it's not clear it's a better one from what they have right now, which is only possible because it's a giant labor law hack at scale.

tmh79 7y ago
uber will likely be the demand aggregator for self driving fleets, as well as own a medium sized self driving fleet, similar to how amazon is a demand aggregator for online retail, as well as maintaining its own physical products for high profit/targetable areas.

paxys 7y ago

> Uber’s goal is to be a driverless platform Everyone keeps using this argument but I don't buy it. Uber itself hasn't once stated that this is their goal, not even to shareholders. When the company was founded in 2008 self driving cars weren't on anyone's radar. And it ignores the fact that if/when self driving cars become viable the entire "ridesharing" landscape will be instantly changed, and Uber will not have any inherent advantages over Google, Cruise, all the auto manufacturers and any other one of the 50+ companies currently in that space. Rather than connect riders and drivers they would have to buy and maintain vehicles in every city in the world. Uber is currently, at best, keeping the self driving option open by putting some research dollars into it. The fact that they are betting the future of their company on it is just online speculation.

randomsearch 7y ago
I think that argument was dropped, even by Uber, after the fatality. One of the reasons I’m sceptical about Uber is the rotating mission plan.
mbesto 7y ago
> Uber itself hasn't once stated that this is their goal, not even to shareholders. Uhhh what? This is patently false. So, like maybe, people think that this is Uber's strategy, because they literally dictated it was part of their strategy. Autonomous vehicle is mentioned 103 times in their S-1. [0] We also hope to add autonomous vehicles, delivery drones, and vertical takeoff and landing vehicles to our network, along with other future innovations. Our Autonomous Driving Strategy We are investing in technology to power the next generation of transportation. Our Advanced Technologies Group (“ATG”) focuses on developing autonomous vehicle technologies, which we believe have the long-term potential to provide safer and more efficient rides and deliveries to consumers, as well as lower prices. ATG was established in 2015 in Pittsburgh with 40 researchers from Carnegie Robotics and Carnegie Mellon University. ATG has primary engineering offices in Pittsburgh, San Francisco, and Toronto with over 1,000 employees. ATG has built over 250 self-driving vehicles, collected data from millions of autonomous vehicle testing miles, and completed tens of thousands of passenger trips. Along the way to a potential future autonomous vehicle world, we believe that there will be a long period of hybrid autonomy, in which autonomous vehicles will be deployed gradually against specific use cases while Drivers continue to serve most consumer demand. As we solve specific autonomous use cases, we will deploy autonomous vehicles against them. Such situations may include trips along a standard, well-mapped route in a predictable environment in good weather. In other situations, such as those that involve substantial traffic, complex routes, or unusual weather conditions, we will continue to rely on Drivers. Moreover, high-demand events, such as concerts or sporting events, will likely exceed the capacity of a highly utilized, fully autonomous vehicle fleet and require the dynamic addition of Drivers to the network in real time. Our regional on-the-ground operations teams will be critical to maintaining reliable supply for such high-demand events. Deciding which trip receives a vehicle driven by a Driver and which receives an autonomous vehicle, and deploying both in real time while maintaining liquidity in all situations, is a dynamic that we believe is imperative for the success of an autonomous vehicle future. Accordingly, we believe that we will be uniquely suited for this dynamic during the expected long hybrid period of co-existence of Drivers and autonomous vehicles. Drivers are therefore a critical and differentiating advantage for us and will continue to be our valued partners for the long-term. We will continue to partner with original equipment manufacturers (“OEMs”) and other technology companies to determine how to most effectively leverage our network during the transition to autonomous vehicle technologies. Our Growth Strategy - Investing in advanced technologies, including autonomous vehicle technologies. [0] -https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1543151/000119312519103850/d647752ds1.htm https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1543151/000119312519...