3 ms·
I've always had strangely accurate time estimates. The basic idea is to divide up the work, and make a fair estimate each part, with special attention to unknow
by hyperpallium 7y ago
I've always had strangely accurate time estimates. The basic idea is to divide up the work, and make a fair estimate each part, with special attention to unknowns (which get much more time).
Then double everything.
The individual task estimates are often out, but the overall estimate is close... as if, with a population of tasks, there's regression to an accurately estimated mean.
(An alternative explanation is that I over-estimate, and Parkinsonianly, work expands to fill time.)
- triggercut 7y agoOr you've baked in the appropriate level of risk for the work at hand. You might want to look into Reference Class Forecasting. Essentially an "outside view" of past performance which is added to provide an uplift adjustment to some measure of your estimate (time, cost, benefit).
- yitchelle 7y agoSome of my colleagues would 3x their estimates and come in ahead of the schedule, looking like heros.