4 ms·

I think we'll see a significant ramp up of EVs long before we see widespread CNG/LNG adoption.

m0zg 7y ago
Maybe in the wonderful HN bubble, where everyone has $40K+ to plop down for an EV every 4-5 years, not in the real world.
- JshWright 7y ago
  Ah yes, I'll just pop down to my local car dealer and pick up a $15k natural gas vehicle...
  - m0zg 7y ago
    That's actually far easier to do (if there's demand) than $15K EVs. For an auto manufacturer, very little cost: replace the gas tank with a CNG cylinder (cylinder can be manufactured cheaply if economies of scale are in place), use the piping able to withstand the pressure, use slightly different injectors. Done.
- mikeash 7y ago
  Why every 4-5 years?
  - m0zg 7y ago
    Beats me. How old is your car?
    - mikeash 7y ago
      One is about a year, the other is close to five years.
- WorldMaker 7y ago
  The efficiencies of scale switchover point is probably a lot closer to hand than you think. VW's ID.3 is already cheaper than all comparable gas models of the (outgoing) similar Golf, and just about all of the German auto manufacturers have been not-so-subtly saying that they expect that all of their EVs will be cheaper than their comparable models with other powertrains in the next couple years. China has sub-$15k equivalent EVs today. Cheap EVs are certainly physically possible even with today's scales, and partly it's just the catch-22 perception hump of "EVs are only for early adopters and luxury cars" (for both consumers and manufacturers) keeping EVs from hitting some scale benchmarks to push them cheaper. The used market still isn't showing a lot of EVs, but that seems to be that statistically most EV owners keep their cars for longer. That's an interesting statistic, that maybe points to reliability on one side, and a possibly very different replacement rate on the other side. Which is to say that the average EV first owner is currently keeping their vehicle for 7-10 years rather than the 4-5 year replacement rate that has been of typical of ICE vehicle sales. (If EV owners were only keeping their cars for 4-5 years, as you suggest of some hypothetical "HN bubble" that would be a lot more of them on the used car market, and in turn fewer complaints of the high cost of EVs. The long first life of an EV is also keeping the costs up and affecting depreciation rates.)
  - m0zg 7y ago
    Could be. I'll believe it when I see a $15K well equipped EV with 150mi+ range, no subsidies, no "fuel savings", no bullshit. We aren't there yet, to put it mildly, and given that battery production capacity can't keep up with demand, it's unlikely that we'll get there in the near future. But CNG is doable today. Pipelines are already there, fuel production capacity is basically inexhaustible for all intents and purposes, and existing manufacturers could easily adapt existing models of cars to the new fuel while they keep using the same facilities, equipment, workers, and dealer network as before. I'd love to get an EV one day, when the pricing is less nutty than it is today. But it has to be economically viable for me. Right now it's not.
BlueTemplar 7y ago
Supply and demand are going to squeeze batteries and electric energy too...
- Robotbeat 7y ago
  Yeah, and batteries and electric energy will actually get cheaper as a result.
  - BlueTemplar 7y ago
    Not if you are expecting to replace most of oil in fairly short order...
    - Robotbeat 7y ago
      Batteries, perhaps, but it does not actually take very long to start up a cell production line (and other aspects, such as raw materials). If given the certainty of policy, accommodating regulators, and federal financing support, the lag between demand outstripping supply and new supply coming online may only be 2 or 3 years. And for electricity, the utilities actually need the extra demand because of energy efficiency reducing lighting costs and distributed solar and subsidized wind providing occasional gluts. Since EVs can fairly easily be set to charge (most the time) on a schedule when electricity is most abundant, this is good for everyone.
      - BlueTemplar 7y ago
        Worldwide power consumption is 109 GWh/year, only 24 of which are for electricity. Oil is 31% of that (34 GWh/y), but only 4% for electricity (~1 GWh/y). EDIT : Whoops, my bad, somehow forgot that we were talking about transportation, which is "only" a quarter of power use... So you need to go from 24 to 24+(34-1)/4 = ~32 Gwh/year, a 33% increase, and you expect to be able to do that in 2-3 years ?! (Napkin calculations, not taking into account various (in)efficiencies and intermittency issues, but the order of magnitude should be roughly this one...)
markvdb 7y ago
Italy is full of CNG vehicles. There's a big push for them in Belgium right now, and I'm probably missing a lot of places...

m0zg 7y ago

Maybe in the wonderful HN bubble, where everyone has $40K+ to plop down for an EV every 4-5 years, not in the real world.

JshWright 7y ago
Ah yes, I'll just pop down to my local car dealer and pick up a $15k natural gas vehicle...
- m0zg 7y ago
  That's actually far easier to do (if there's demand) than $15K EVs. For an auto manufacturer, very little cost: replace the gas tank with a CNG cylinder (cylinder can be manufactured cheaply if economies of scale are in place), use the piping able to withstand the pressure, use slightly different injectors. Done.
mikeash 7y ago
Why every 4-5 years?
- m0zg 7y ago
  Beats me. How old is your car?
  - mikeash 7y ago
    One is about a year, the other is close to five years.
WorldMaker 7y ago
The efficiencies of scale switchover point is probably a lot closer to hand than you think. VW's ID.3 is already cheaper than all comparable gas models of the (outgoing) similar Golf, and just about all of the German auto manufacturers have been not-so-subtly saying that they expect that all of their EVs will be cheaper than their comparable models with other powertrains in the next couple years. China has sub-$15k equivalent EVs today. Cheap EVs are certainly physically possible even with today's scales, and partly it's just the catch-22 perception hump of "EVs are only for early adopters and luxury cars" (for both consumers and manufacturers) keeping EVs from hitting some scale benchmarks to push them cheaper. The used market still isn't showing a lot of EVs, but that seems to be that statistically most EV owners keep their cars for longer. That's an interesting statistic, that maybe points to reliability on one side, and a possibly very different replacement rate on the other side. Which is to say that the average EV first owner is currently keeping their vehicle for 7-10 years rather than the 4-5 year replacement rate that has been of typical of ICE vehicle sales. (If EV owners were only keeping their cars for 4-5 years, as you suggest of some hypothetical "HN bubble" that would be a lot more of them on the used car market, and in turn fewer complaints of the high cost of EVs. The long first life of an EV is also keeping the costs up and affecting depreciation rates.)
- m0zg 7y ago
  Could be. I'll believe it when I see a $15K well equipped EV with 150mi+ range, no subsidies, no "fuel savings", no bullshit. We aren't there yet, to put it mildly, and given that battery production capacity can't keep up with demand, it's unlikely that we'll get there in the near future. But CNG is doable today. Pipelines are already there, fuel production capacity is basically inexhaustible for all intents and purposes, and existing manufacturers could easily adapt existing models of cars to the new fuel while they keep using the same facilities, equipment, workers, and dealer network as before. I'd love to get an EV one day, when the pricing is less nutty than it is today. But it has to be economically viable for me. Right now it's not.

BlueTemplar 7y ago

Supply and demand are going to squeeze batteries and electric energy too...

Robotbeat 7y ago
Yeah, and batteries and electric energy will actually get cheaper as a result.
- BlueTemplar 7y ago
  Not if you are expecting to replace most of oil in fairly short order...
  - Robotbeat 7y ago
    Batteries, perhaps, but it does not actually take very long to start up a cell production line (and other aspects, such as raw materials). If given the certainty of policy, accommodating regulators, and federal financing support, the lag between demand outstripping supply and new supply coming online may only be 2 or 3 years. And for electricity, the utilities actually need the extra demand because of energy efficiency reducing lighting costs and distributed solar and subsidized wind providing occasional gluts. Since EVs can fairly easily be set to charge (most the time) on a schedule when electricity is most abundant, this is good for everyone.
    - BlueTemplar 7y ago
      Worldwide power consumption is 109 GWh/year, only 24 of which are for electricity. Oil is 31% of that (34 GWh/y), but only 4% for electricity (~1 GWh/y). EDIT : Whoops, my bad, somehow forgot that we were talking about transportation, which is "only" a quarter of power use... So you need to go from 24 to 24+(34-1)/4 = ~32 Gwh/year, a 33% increase, and you expect to be able to do that in 2-3 years ?! (Napkin calculations, not taking into account various (in)efficiencies and intermittency issues, but the order of magnitude should be roughly this one...)

markvdb 7y ago

Italy is full of CNG vehicles. There's a big push for them in Belgium right now, and I'm probably missing a lot of places...