6 ms·

Peak oil isn't nonsense. Predictions about when are often wrong but the idea is sound. And it never meant running out. It's exactly what it says on the tin: a

Peak oil isn't nonsense. Predictions about when are often wrong but the idea is sound. And it never meant running out. It's exactly what it says on the tin: a peak and a probably very long tail of decline.

philipkglass 7y ago
There is "peak oil" as the basic geophysical concept, which is perfectly fine. There is also "peak oil" as the prophecy of imminent collapse of industrial civilization, which was a much bigger thing a decade or so ago. It may still have some loyal believers. I think that people unfortunately have the means to extract far more oil than we have the means to safely burn in Earth's atmosphere.
- pault 7y ago
  I can confirm. My mom is susceptible to internet fear mongering and got on some "peak oil" forums back around 2005. Many of them wanted you to believe that things were going to spiral out of control and that rioting and food shortages were imminent. Of course they could go back and say that they never said that explicitly, but the implication was there and it was clearly meant to scare the shit out of you. It seems that there's a certain type of person that secretly wants society to fall apart because they think it will solve all of their social and financial problems. I'm not sure they've thought it through very well.
stale2002 7y ago
Well, there is an alternative. You are talking about peak oil supply. Instead, what if we run into peak oil demand. IE, instead of running out of oil, we run out of oil demand, as everyone moves away from oil onto better technologies.
- BlueTemplar 7y ago
  Not likely to happen as we don't have better technologies, and now no time left to develop and especially build the infrastructure for them...
  - stale2002 7y ago
    But, we do! The cost of solar panels and wind has been going down dramatically over the last couple decades, and is only continuing to do so. The percentage of electric cars is also increasing. There is a lot of oil in the ground. It isn't going to run out in the next decade. By which time these technologies will have become even better.
    - BlueTemplar 7y ago
      I'm talking about today. What are the current energy cost comparisons? And the new infrastructure itself would need a lot of energy to build... https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2011/10/the-energy-trap/ https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2011/10/the-energy-trap/
      - stale2002 7y ago
        But... This whole conversation was about peak oil. We don't need all that stuff right now. We only need to build it before we run out of oil. And I am saying that it is going to take us a much longer time to run out of oil, than it is to build all that new infrastructure. Not because building the infrastructure is easy, but because there is a whole lot of oil in the ground, and therefore we have a lot of time. IE, people will stop using oil, because the price of solar, ect has gone down, way before we come close to actually running out of oil.
        BlueTemplar 7y ago
        As you might know, peak oil is not about literally "running out of oil" (and the article I have linked expands on it), and my point is that we are in the very process of hitting peak (conventional+unconventional) oil - actually those attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure might mark this precise point... (or not, but we certainly don't have decades left...)
        stale2002 7y ago
        Ok, but we aren't currently in that process. The potential oil production capacity of the world has massively increased, because of fracking. And if oil prices go up, a whole lot of oil in the US and Canada , become immediately profitable to extract. I think you are severely underestimating how much non conventional oil there is, that we could start extracting, if it became profitable.
credit_guy 7y ago
Peak oil is nonsense. All resources on Earth are finite. What’s special about oil? Why not peak aluminum or peak concrete or peak cobalt?
- dragonwriter 7y ago
  > Peak oil is nonsense No, it's not. > All resources on Earth are finite. What’s special about oil? Nothing; it would be special if it was an extractable resource and didn't have a peak where utility vs. cost of extraction meant that extraction declined from the peak. > Why not peak aluminum or peak concrete or peak cobalt? Aluminum and Cobalt, as extractable resources, will probably also have extraction peaks.
  - dboreham 7y ago
    The earth's crust is 8% Aluminum.
    - dragonwriter 7y ago
      But not all of it is equally easy to extract. In any case, yeah, “peak aluminum” is far more distant than peak oil.
  - credit_guy 7y ago
    Here’s Hubert’s peak oil projection and the actual oil production in the US. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predicting_the_timing_of_peak_oil#/media/File%3AHubbert_Upper-Bound_Peak_1956.png https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predicting_the_timing_of_pea... Now there are multiple schools of thought, but one of them holds that when reality diverges so much from theory as in this plot, it’s time to question the theory.

philipkglass 7y ago

There is "peak oil" as the basic geophysical concept, which is perfectly fine. There is also "peak oil" as the prophecy of imminent collapse of industrial civilization, which was a much bigger thing a decade or so ago. It may still have some loyal believers. I think that people unfortunately have the means to extract far more oil than we have the means to safely burn in Earth's atmosphere.

pault 7y ago
I can confirm. My mom is susceptible to internet fear mongering and got on some "peak oil" forums back around 2005. Many of them wanted you to believe that things were going to spiral out of control and that rioting and food shortages were imminent. Of course they could go back and say that they never said that explicitly, but the implication was there and it was clearly meant to scare the shit out of you. It seems that there's a certain type of person that secretly wants society to fall apart because they think it will solve all of their social and financial problems. I'm not sure they've thought it through very well.

stale2002 7y ago

Well, there is an alternative. You are talking about peak oil supply. Instead, what if we run into peak oil demand. IE, instead of running out of oil, we run out of oil demand, as everyone moves away from oil onto better technologies.

BlueTemplar 7y ago
Not likely to happen as we don't have better technologies, and now no time left to develop and especially build the infrastructure for them...
- stale2002 7y ago
  But, we do! The cost of solar panels and wind has been going down dramatically over the last couple decades, and is only continuing to do so. The percentage of electric cars is also increasing. There is a lot of oil in the ground. It isn't going to run out in the next decade. By which time these technologies will have become even better.
  - BlueTemplar 7y ago
    I'm talking about today. What are the current energy cost comparisons? And the new infrastructure itself would need a lot of energy to build... https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2011/10/the-energy-trap/ https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2011/10/the-energy-trap/
    - stale2002 7y ago
      But... This whole conversation was about peak oil. We don't need all that stuff right now. We only need to build it before we run out of oil. And I am saying that it is going to take us a much longer time to run out of oil, than it is to build all that new infrastructure. Not because building the infrastructure is easy, but because there is a whole lot of oil in the ground, and therefore we have a lot of time. IE, people will stop using oil, because the price of solar, ect has gone down, way before we come close to actually running out of oil.
      - BlueTemplar 7y ago
        As you might know, peak oil is not about literally "running out of oil" (and the article I have linked expands on it), and my point is that we are in the very process of hitting peak (conventional+unconventional) oil - actually those attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure might mark this precise point... (or not, but we certainly don't have decades left...)
        stale2002 7y ago
        Ok, but we aren't currently in that process. The potential oil production capacity of the world has massively increased, because of fracking. And if oil prices go up, a whole lot of oil in the US and Canada , become immediately profitable to extract. I think you are severely underestimating how much non conventional oil there is, that we could start extracting, if it became profitable.

credit_guy 7y ago

Peak oil is nonsense. All resources on Earth are finite. What’s special about oil? Why not peak aluminum or peak concrete or peak cobalt?

dragonwriter 7y ago
> Peak oil is nonsense No, it's not. > All resources on Earth are finite. What’s special about oil? Nothing; it would be special if it was an extractable resource and didn't have a peak where utility vs. cost of extraction meant that extraction declined from the peak. > Why not peak aluminum or peak concrete or peak cobalt? Aluminum and Cobalt, as extractable resources, will probably also have extraction peaks.
- dboreham 7y ago
  The earth's crust is 8% Aluminum.
  - dragonwriter 7y ago
    But not all of it is equally easy to extract. In any case, yeah, “peak aluminum” is far more distant than peak oil.
- credit_guy 7y ago
  Here’s Hubert’s peak oil projection and the actual oil production in the US. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predicting_the_timing_of_peak_oil#/media/File%3AHubbert_Upper-Bound_Peak_1956.png https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predicting_the_timing_of_pea... Now there are multiple schools of thought, but one of them holds that when reality diverges so much from theory as in this plot, it’s time to question the theory.