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Clickbait title, bad article (completely unsubstantiated/unsourced, openly hostile, ...), and a pretty horrible website in general. SA inflating their product

Clickbait title, bad article (completely unsubstantiated/unsourced, openly hostile, ...), and a pretty horrible website in general. SA inflating their production and capacity numbers is perfectly possible (and probably likely), but that kind of writing is not exactly trustworthy. But some things to think about: * With modern drone/missle capabilities, it seems quite easy to severely compromise global oil and gas production with just a few targeted strikes; mainly on the big refineries. Quite scary. * Is Iran, after years of fighting proxy wars, now moving towards more direct conflict with Saudi Arabia?

mc32 7y ago
I think this will prompt other countries on the ME who haven’t yet embraced unconventional warfare, uavs in particular, to begin familiarization and adoption and then use it strategically. SA are overinvested in conventional defense and offense. I imagine they’re looking to ramp up quickly.
- fmajid 7y ago
  The Turks have: https://theintercept.com/2019/05/14/turkey-second-drone-age/ https://theintercept.com/2019/05/14/turkey-second-drone-age/
Expez 7y ago
Guarding a refinery is at least doable in principle, but most oil is transported there by way of a pipeline. Guarding miles and miles of pipes in the middle of nowhere is going to be prohibitively expensive. The Trans-Arabian pipeline for example is a whopping 1214 km (754 mi) long[0]! [0]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trans-Arabian_Pipeline https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trans-Arabian_Pipeline
- gruez 7y ago
  >The Trans-Arabian pipeline for example is a whopping 1214 km (754 mi) long[0]! FYI it's not in use anymore.
- H8crilA 7y ago
  Trans-Alaskan is even slightly longer (800mi/1300km) and more importantly totally exposed - it's overground for many hundreds of miles (because you can't bury a pipeline in permafrost, it would melt the permafrost and sink the pipeline, breaking it). Bottom line is that crazy shit happens. There is no way to mitigate all the substantial risks.
- mrfusion 7y ago
  754 security guards on dirt bikes with radios? Maybe a helicopter on standby.
  - DuskStar 7y ago
    Ah yes, "dude on a dirt bike with a radio and rifle" - the supreme air defence asset of our time. Seriously, this might work for stopping people walking up to the pipeline with explosives - but it wouldn't stop someone with an RPG, recreational drone or (lol) cruise missile.
- johnrgrace 7y ago
  Are you sure that guarding a refinery is doable in principle? One mortar crew in the back of a pickup truck gets within 5km of a refinery for a few minutes and the facility is burning. If someone can get access to a towed artillery piece that 5km goes up to 20km.
hogFeast 7y ago
Just to say: people have known this for absolutely years and OPEC nations have been lying about production/reserves/everything since the cartel was formed. And yes, it is unsourced...because the point is very much that OPEC is using this data to determine things like production share, so there is a massive incentive to fabricate data which no-one can prove.
AsyncAwait 7y ago
> Is Iran, after years of fighting proxy wars, now moving towards more direct conflict with Saudi Arabia? I mean the Saudis have been commuting war crimes in Yemen, Iran may've supplied some equipment, but I certainly think the Yemenis would be motivated enough themselves.
- azernik 7y ago
  The proxies in proxy wars always have their own motivations and agency (see also Egypt, Israel, and Syria in the Cold War; or North/South Vietnam). Doesn't change the great-power dynamics of both sides' sponsors.
  - boomboomsubban 7y ago
    Though Iran's role has always been greatly oversold in the conflict, calling Iran a "great-power" in a war against a US backed force is ridiculous.
    - azernik 7y ago
      I was thinking more of the Iran-KSA relationship; in the Middle Eastern context, the defining regional-power conflict is between Iran and the KSA. The anti-Houthi militias are more clearly Saudi and Emirati proxies than American ones.
      - panpanna 7y ago
        Come on, call it what it is. The "anti-Houthi militias" are local branches of ISIS and al-qaida. Which makes the current US policy even more confusing.
        azernik 7y ago
        That's complete nonsense. Neither the Hadi (Saudi-backed) nor STC (UAE-backed) types are particularly Islamist; ISIS and al-Qaeda are a third bloc in the rural/desert east that the US periodically bombs, while the Saudis are busy generally bombing Houthi-governed civilians.

mc32 7y ago

I think this will prompt other countries on the ME who haven’t yet embraced unconventional warfare, uavs in particular, to begin familiarization and adoption and then use it strategically. SA are overinvested in conventional defense and offense. I imagine they’re looking to ramp up quickly.

fmajid 7y ago
The Turks have: https://theintercept.com/2019/05/14/turkey-second-drone-age/ https://theintercept.com/2019/05/14/turkey-second-drone-age/

Expez 7y ago

Guarding a refinery is at least doable in principle, but most oil is transported there by way of a pipeline. Guarding miles and miles of pipes in the middle of nowhere is going to be prohibitively expensive. The Trans-Arabian pipeline for example is a whopping 1214 km (754 mi) long[0]! [0]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trans-Arabian_Pipeline https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trans-Arabian_Pipeline

gruez 7y ago
>The Trans-Arabian pipeline for example is a whopping 1214 km (754 mi) long[0]! FYI it's not in use anymore.
H8crilA 7y ago
Trans-Alaskan is even slightly longer (800mi/1300km) and more importantly totally exposed - it's overground for many hundreds of miles (because you can't bury a pipeline in permafrost, it would melt the permafrost and sink the pipeline, breaking it). Bottom line is that crazy shit happens. There is no way to mitigate all the substantial risks.
mrfusion 7y ago
754 security guards on dirt bikes with radios? Maybe a helicopter on standby.
- DuskStar 7y ago
  Ah yes, "dude on a dirt bike with a radio and rifle" - the supreme air defence asset of our time. Seriously, this might work for stopping people walking up to the pipeline with explosives - but it wouldn't stop someone with an RPG, recreational drone or (lol) cruise missile.
johnrgrace 7y ago
Are you sure that guarding a refinery is doable in principle? One mortar crew in the back of a pickup truck gets within 5km of a refinery for a few minutes and the facility is burning. If someone can get access to a towed artillery piece that 5km goes up to 20km.

hogFeast 7y ago

Just to say: people have known this for absolutely years and OPEC nations have been lying about production/reserves/everything since the cartel was formed. And yes, it is unsourced...because the point is very much that OPEC is using this data to determine things like production share, so there is a massive incentive to fabricate data which no-one can prove.

AsyncAwait 7y ago

> Is Iran, after years of fighting proxy wars, now moving towards more direct conflict with Saudi Arabia? I mean the Saudis have been commuting war crimes in Yemen, Iran may've supplied some equipment, but I certainly think the Yemenis would be motivated enough themselves.

azernik 7y ago
The proxies in proxy wars always have their own motivations and agency (see also Egypt, Israel, and Syria in the Cold War; or North/South Vietnam). Doesn't change the great-power dynamics of both sides' sponsors.
- boomboomsubban 7y ago
  Though Iran's role has always been greatly oversold in the conflict, calling Iran a "great-power" in a war against a US backed force is ridiculous.
  - azernik 7y ago
    I was thinking more of the Iran-KSA relationship; in the Middle Eastern context, the defining regional-power conflict is between Iran and the KSA. The anti-Houthi militias are more clearly Saudi and Emirati proxies than American ones.
    - panpanna 7y ago
      Come on, call it what it is. The "anti-Houthi militias" are local branches of ISIS and al-qaida. Which makes the current US policy even more confusing.
      - azernik 7y ago
        That's complete nonsense. Neither the Hadi (Saudi-backed) nor STC (UAE-backed) types are particularly Islamist; ISIS and al-Qaeda are a third bloc in the rural/desert east that the US periodically bombs, while the Saudis are busy generally bombing Houthi-governed civilians.