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Culture is not genes. It's not necessarily true that all the children of traditionalist/conservative Catholics will themselves grow up to be traditionalist/cons

Culture is not genes. It's not necessarily true that all the children of traditionalist/conservative Catholics will themselves grow up to be traditionalist/conservative Catholics, so even a higher birthrate in that subgroup doesn't guarantee cultural reproduction.

skissane 7y ago
Of course, there is an attrition/defection rate, and I acknowledged it isn't zero – "Not all of those kids will follow in their parents' footsteps, but the majority of them probably will" – a high birth rate group can still grow exponentially even in the presence of a significant degree of attrition. What is the attrition rate for traditionalist/conservative Catholics? I don't know. I have seen some figures given for traditionalist/conservative groups of other faiths. [1] suggests the attrition rate for ultra-Orthodox Jews is 20-25%; the ultra-Orthodox birth rate is so high, they are still growing exponentially even if 25% of their children leave. (Most of those will move to less religiously demanding forms of Judaism–Modern Orthodoxy, Conservative/Masorti, Reform–rather than leave the Jewish religion altogether.) Similarly, the Amish have a retention rate of around 85% [2]. For the ultra-Orthodox Jews and the Amish, there are certain barriers to leaving (lack of secular education, limited English skills due to using Yiddish or Pennsylvania German as their main language), for which traditionalist Catholics don't have anything similar. But, I think traditionalist parents try hard to pass on their religious outlook to their children; they don't always succeed, but they probably do have more success than many lukewarm religious parents who aren't trying very hard. Some of them run their own schools–mainstream Catholic schools tend to be moderate-to-progressive in outlook, but there are Catholic schools affiliated to groups like Opus Dei and SSPX who are very conservative–which helps imprint their mindset on to their children (it won't stick with all of them, but to sustain their high growth rate, it isn't necessary that it sticks with them all). I also think that conservative religious groups who aren't as socially isolated as the Amish and the ultra-Orthodox Jews will of necessity tend to build up counter-narratives and memorised counter-arguments (whether or not those arguments are sound) to secular progressive modernity, which does give them some degree of "memetic immunity", and some of their children will culturally inherit that "memetic immunity". [1] https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/volokh-conspiracy/wp/2015/08/27/the-american-jewish-future-more-schmuley-boteach-than-woody-allen/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/volokh-conspiracy/wp/201... [2] http://groups.etown.edu/amishstudies/frequently-asked-questions/ http://groups.etown.edu/amishstudies/frequently-asked-questi...

skissane 7y ago

Of course, there is an attrition/defection rate, and I acknowledged it isn't zero – "Not all of those kids will follow in their parents' footsteps, but the majority of them probably will" – a high birth rate group can still grow exponentially even in the presence of a significant degree of attrition. What is the attrition rate for traditionalist/conservative Catholics? I don't know. I have seen some figures given for traditionalist/conservative groups of other faiths. [1] suggests the attrition rate for ultra-Orthodox Jews is 20-25%; the ultra-Orthodox birth rate is so high, they are still growing exponentially even if 25% of their children leave. (Most of those will move to less religiously demanding forms of Judaism–Modern Orthodoxy, Conservative/Masorti, Reform–rather than leave the Jewish religion altogether.) Similarly, the Amish have a retention rate of around 85% [2]. For the ultra-Orthodox Jews and the Amish, there are certain barriers to leaving (lack of secular education, limited English skills due to using Yiddish or Pennsylvania German as their main language), for which traditionalist Catholics don't have anything similar. But, I think traditionalist parents try hard to pass on their religious outlook to their children; they don't always succeed, but they probably do have more success than many lukewarm religious parents who aren't trying very hard. Some of them run their own schools–mainstream Catholic schools tend to be moderate-to-progressive in outlook, but there are Catholic schools affiliated to groups like Opus Dei and SSPX who are very conservative–which helps imprint their mindset on to their children (it won't stick with all of them, but to sustain their high growth rate, it isn't necessary that it sticks with them all). I also think that conservative religious groups who aren't as socially isolated as the Amish and the ultra-Orthodox Jews will of necessity tend to build up counter-narratives and memorised counter-arguments (whether or not those arguments are sound) to secular progressive modernity, which does give them some degree of "memetic immunity", and some of their children will culturally inherit that "memetic immunity". [1] https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/volokh-conspiracy/wp/2015/08/27/the-american-jewish-future-more-schmuley-boteach-than-woody-allen/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/volokh-conspiracy/wp/201... [2] http://groups.etown.edu/amishstudies/frequently-asked-questions/ http://groups.etown.edu/amishstudies/frequently-asked-questi...