4 ms·

Demonetization is just one of many issues. It mainly affected cash and credit based businesses. It's not directly responsible for the lack of demand in various

Demonetization is just one of many issues. It mainly affected cash and credit based businesses. It's not directly responsible for the lack of demand in various sectors. The current slowdown is a result of many more things. Some issues are structural, while others are cyclical. https://www.quora.com/Do-you-think-demonetization-is-the-reason-for-the-current-economic-slowdown/answer/Subodh-Mathur-4 https://www.quora.com/Do-you-think-demonetization-is-the-rea... https://www.livemint.com/news/india/15-ways-to-define-india-s-slowdown-1565715613762.html https://www.livemint.com/news/india/15-ways-to-define-india-... https://podcasts.google.com/?feed=aHR0cDovL2NhcGl0YWxtaW5kLmxpYnN5bi5jb20vcnNz&episode=YjE3NDlhOWVhODEwNDc5MWJiMGEyOWIzZTM2MDQ5OTk https://podcasts.google.com/?feed=aHR0cDovL2NhcGl0YWxtaW5kLm...

intended 7y ago
As I stated, demo and then GST. Further, remember that 5 Rs biscuits are not being bought. This means that other more expensive things like perhaps medicine were already casualties when that news hit the airwaves. This means Discretionary spending is likely dead. To give you context of how bad this is- remember that india survived multiple oil crisis, the 2008 global meltdown and more- without similar damage. We’ve at most been hurt by the rise of fuel costs - I remember the BJP staying that ONGC was unprofitable when they were the opposition - that was because of the cost of buying fuel from abroad. The other thing that hurts India has been the price of onions. However we have not really faced a crisis of this nature. This is not like what we have had to face before. People should be paying close attention to rural demand. Rural demand is the leviathan beneath the surface of the sensex/nifty and the organized sector. You should be looking at headlines with a laser focus on rural demand and the monsoon impact on crops.
- sbmthakur 7y ago
  What has 5 Rs biscuits are not being bought has got to do with GST? It's specifically addressed in the podcast I shared. It's more like the company wants tax cuts from the Government. And, no, "Discretionary demand" is not dead. There's no data to back that claim. The demand has decreased and that's why we're in a slowdown. Rural demand is not the only thing that has gone. Urban demand is also down. We've had years of bad loans, high taxes etc. Add to it sector specific changes like new Engine norms in Auto sector and introduction of norms like RERA in real estate. These were going to culminate in a slowdown sooner or later.
  - intended 7y ago
    Cmon man, even the articles you link support my statements. Look, you are free to believe what you want. Belief is deeply personal. However I can state factually that when demo happened it was obvious to me and others that this would harm the unorganized sector. Same with GST. At the same time I have regularly asked everyone, from people in the know to think tanks - where is govt spending going. Know that the center and state govts have been spending heavily since the BJP came to power - hence the unprecedented transfer of funds from public entities to the center, or the reduction of funding to NGOs in favor of Govt CSR initiatives. This means that GDP has been propped up by govt spending all these years. Taxes are not a sufficient issue, And I personally oversaw a transition to a new engine regime in my previous firm whose primary item was engine driven - NONE Of that leads to today’s scenario. You want to believe - feel free. But the subject matter here is not about beliefs, it’s about facts as best stated in that article: >Almost all these economic indicators suggest that we are well into an economic slowdown, and it can possibly get worse from here. The irony is that this slowdown seems to be obvious to everyone except the government. The question this leaves us with is, how do you solve a problem without acknowledging it first? PS: if you, an Econ neophyte we’re aware that the culmination of all these measures would result in a slow Down (even with the new untested GDP figures) then the govt should know fat earlier than you and simply not do all of it at the same time, or gradually change things. However that is beyond the ability of this govt and it was their primary criticism when they were elected- india needs actual talent able to manage it, because it’s ovviously far more complex than people imagine.
    - kamaal 7y ago
      >>PS: if you, an Econ neophyte we’re aware that the culmination of all these measures would result in a slow Down (even with the new untested GDP figures) then the govt should know fat earlier https://caravanmagazine.in/politics/how-modi-stalled-nitin-gadkaris-rise https://caravanmagazine.in/politics/how-modi-stalled-nitin-g... On 8 November 2016, as Modi prepared to announce his surprise decision to annul all high-denomination bank notes, he gathered his top ministers. and When a colleague later asked Gadkari about this, “he said, ‘He had already made up his mind, he was just doing a paper exercise to corner us. So I tried to go one up on him.’” Basically 2 - 3 people are making big decisions in the government without any advice, inputs or feed back from anywhere. This is a recipe for disasters. Governments are not a one man show. Politicians are the least qualified people to make any real decisions, governments should be advised by experts panels and committees with politicians doing an intersection of that and what's in the interest of their constituencies. Also one of the biggest access to talent to human resources this government had in the planning commission was fired and the body dissolved.

intended 7y ago

As I stated, demo and then GST. Further, remember that 5 Rs biscuits are not being bought. This means that other more expensive things like perhaps medicine were already casualties when that news hit the airwaves. This means Discretionary spending is likely dead. To give you context of how bad this is- remember that india survived multiple oil crisis, the 2008 global meltdown and more- without similar damage. We’ve at most been hurt by the rise of fuel costs - I remember the BJP staying that ONGC was unprofitable when they were the opposition - that was because of the cost of buying fuel from abroad. The other thing that hurts India has been the price of onions. However we have not really faced a crisis of this nature. This is not like what we have had to face before. People should be paying close attention to rural demand. Rural demand is the leviathan beneath the surface of the sensex/nifty and the organized sector. You should be looking at headlines with a laser focus on rural demand and the monsoon impact on crops.

sbmthakur 7y ago
What has 5 Rs biscuits are not being bought has got to do with GST? It's specifically addressed in the podcast I shared. It's more like the company wants tax cuts from the Government. And, no, "Discretionary demand" is not dead. There's no data to back that claim. The demand has decreased and that's why we're in a slowdown. Rural demand is not the only thing that has gone. Urban demand is also down. We've had years of bad loans, high taxes etc. Add to it sector specific changes like new Engine norms in Auto sector and introduction of norms like RERA in real estate. These were going to culminate in a slowdown sooner or later.
- intended 7y ago
  Cmon man, even the articles you link support my statements. Look, you are free to believe what you want. Belief is deeply personal. However I can state factually that when demo happened it was obvious to me and others that this would harm the unorganized sector. Same with GST. At the same time I have regularly asked everyone, from people in the know to think tanks - where is govt spending going. Know that the center and state govts have been spending heavily since the BJP came to power - hence the unprecedented transfer of funds from public entities to the center, or the reduction of funding to NGOs in favor of Govt CSR initiatives. This means that GDP has been propped up by govt spending all these years. Taxes are not a sufficient issue, And I personally oversaw a transition to a new engine regime in my previous firm whose primary item was engine driven - NONE Of that leads to today’s scenario. You want to believe - feel free. But the subject matter here is not about beliefs, it’s about facts as best stated in that article: >Almost all these economic indicators suggest that we are well into an economic slowdown, and it can possibly get worse from here. The irony is that this slowdown seems to be obvious to everyone except the government. The question this leaves us with is, how do you solve a problem without acknowledging it first? PS: if you, an Econ neophyte we’re aware that the culmination of all these measures would result in a slow Down (even with the new untested GDP figures) then the govt should know fat earlier than you and simply not do all of it at the same time, or gradually change things. However that is beyond the ability of this govt and it was their primary criticism when they were elected- india needs actual talent able to manage it, because it’s ovviously far more complex than people imagine.
  - kamaal 7y ago
    >>PS: if you, an Econ neophyte we’re aware that the culmination of all these measures would result in a slow Down (even with the new untested GDP figures) then the govt should know fat earlier https://caravanmagazine.in/politics/how-modi-stalled-nitin-gadkaris-rise https://caravanmagazine.in/politics/how-modi-stalled-nitin-g... On 8 November 2016, as Modi prepared to announce his surprise decision to annul all high-denomination bank notes, he gathered his top ministers. and When a colleague later asked Gadkari about this, “he said, ‘He had already made up his mind, he was just doing a paper exercise to corner us. So I tried to go one up on him.’” Basically 2 - 3 people are making big decisions in the government without any advice, inputs or feed back from anywhere. This is a recipe for disasters. Governments are not a one man show. Politicians are the least qualified people to make any real decisions, governments should be advised by experts panels and committees with politicians doing an intersection of that and what's in the interest of their constituencies. Also one of the biggest access to talent to human resources this government had in the planning commission was fired and the body dissolved.