5 ms·

This article states the symptoms without even remotely touching the root causes. When the current government took control in 2014, they moved swiftly and banned

by kamaal 7y ago

This article states the symptoms without even remotely touching the root causes. When the current government took control in 2014, they moved swiftly and banned entirety of 1000 and 500 notes in circulation. This was a move called Demonetisation. This effectively killed the economy. This was originally hailed as an ace move by the government's supporters. Because it was originally thought untaxed money(also known as black money) is the root cause of India's illness. What happened in reality was a lot of capital intensive businesses suffered as an immediate aftermath. The most important of them being Real estate, which employees a huge section of people and drives a lot of business. Cement, Paint, Plumbing, Electrical, Logistics etc etc. Indian public is also very price sensitive. It's not considered wise to be spending money buying cars if you don't even have a home. This was the first blow. Secondly, there was a tax policy called GST. This was the next big blunder made by the government. The Indian economy is a result of tons of hacks carefully evolved and put into place over decades. GST had a flawed execution and with equally screwed up tax rates. Revisions are painful to impossible. Quarterly filing is hard for small businesses and rates are just unworkable. Combined with a lot of extortion like activities from Tax authorities. Tons of start ups suffered too. This is above and beyond the fact that the current government has possibly the worst possible social policy. India's diversity is at risk. Choice of food or religion can get you lynched. The government is planning a country wide citizenship register, on the same lines of Reich Citizenship Law, detention(concentration?) camps are already being built. This is a serious threat to India's future on the very longer run. These experiments have never worked anywhere in the world, and will be an even bigger disaster given how big and diverse India is. For what its worth stating, economy isn't even in the top ten list of priorities this government has and its constituency doesn't care either.

brainless 7y ago
Given the current grim plans of the government, I feel an economic slowdown is a necessary evil to wash out the government and force people to figure out what is important for the whole country.
- sbmthakur 7y ago
  Which grim plans you're talking about?
- kamaal 7y ago
  Economic slowdown is unlikely to change anything at all. If any thing it will only accelerate the problems. It's easy to create the illusion of internal enemies as ruse to execute these kind of projects. Also people in general do not feel the effects of economy in a way it could effect their deeply routed political and socially held beliefs. You have to just let it play out. The current government is here to stay. There are plenty of people who will vote for pride etc kind of things. And there is no shortage of such projects the government has in pipeline, the nearest one is that Babri Masjid one. Unfortunately that is very likely it will happen in the case of India. It will be bad, and it will ruin everything we know. But then this generation(people in age group 35+ years) will be through(That is if they escape these camps). The next generation will see their illusions of supremacy shatter. The generation after that is what will see the con as it is. The economy and social conditions would largely be irreversible by then. This is beyond what other mess they left with to clear. The other part is the way Indian economy is structured, you won't see a collapse in the very same sense as US recessions happen. The living conditions and quality of things in general, plus the unorganized structure of the economy won't allow a one big collapse to happen. It will be a gradual pain, year after year. Come every year there will be less things going around. Until too much is lost. That is how it will very likely play out in India's case.
uxcolumbo 7y ago
RE: The government is planning a country wide citizenship register, on the same lines of Reich Citizenship Law, detention(concentration?) camps are already being built. Can you expand on this? Why are these camps being built?
- thewarrior 7y ago
  In the state of Assam if you are unable to produce documents proving that your grandfather was an Indian citizen you can be stripped of citizenship and sent to a detention camp. There is talk of extending this to all of india.
- kamaal 7y ago
  To begin with: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Register_of_Citizens_of_India https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Register_of_Citizens_... These are live pictures of the camp being built: https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/assam-detention-centre-inside-indias-1st-detention-centre-for-illegal-immigrants-after-nrc-school-ho-2099626 https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/assam-detention-centre-insid... The ruling government has promised a nation wide building of such camps. Including in Mumbai, India's financial capital: https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/after-assam-citizens-list-plans-of-detention-centre-near-mumbai-sources-2097660 https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/after-assam-citizens-list-pl... Also there is this bill will be almost assuredly passed: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Citizenship_Amendment_Bill_2016 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Citizenship_Amendment_Bill_201... This is very similar to the Reich Citizenship Law. Which will first disenfranchise people, and then when they are stripped of citizenship. They are free to immigrate wherever they like(Which is basically nowhere, given most will be poor and no one will take them), or they can work till death in the labor camps, or.. oh well. The Holocaust.
- sbmthakur 7y ago
  It's typical fear mongering. It deals with Assam which is a state in India that has suffered decades of illegal immigration, so much that the locals have often resorted to violent agitations to protest. Failure of successive governments to act on the issue has further complicated the issue. The current Government is implenting NRC which was decided by a previous government. Those who can't prove their citizenship as per NRC will probably loose their citizenships.
pif 7y ago
> What happened in reality was a lot of capital intensive businesses suffered as an immediate aftermath. Can you please explain a bit, please? Isn't traceable capital (cheques, bank transfers, credit cards) as worth as liquid capital?
- JumpCrisscross 7y ago
  > Isn't traceable capital (cheques, bank transfers, credit cards) as worth as liquid capital? Theoretically, yes. In a country with unreliable power and wireless Internet infrastructure, no. More critically, there are switching costs with digitising an economy. Dropping those out of the blue on the whole country simultaneously will knock out businesses. Speaking as an outsider, demonetisation and the erosion of the RBI’s independence have been huge red flags for investing in rupees or in India. (Case in point: non-deliverable rupee trading in London recently surpassed spot trading in India.) That makes it harder for businesses to access international capital markets.
- sifar 7y ago
  I think the OP may be talking about MSME industries which employ and subcontract to people who rely on cash. The other point is you may have traceable capital, the other party may deal in cash out of necessity. Think maids, laborers, companies employing them, small time traders/contractors, transport. Sucking out cash disabled a whole bunch of them. Underneath, the formal economy is supported by the informal (read cash transactions) economy most of whom don't earn enough to be taxed. This was the doublespeak they got away with.
bakuninsbart 7y ago
> The Indian economy is a result of tons of hacks carefully evolved and put into place over decades. This is a key line for me. There will always be a point where a country has to replace the hacks that developed over a decade or two with a more comprehensive system. - This reform should have been implemented much more carefully, but it generally was a step in the right direction (In contrast to demonetisation). You can see this by looking at opposition parties: While they are all opposed to it in its current form, nobody is suggesting to go back to the old system. And some things certainly have improved as a result of the tax reform, too. - It is just that the government now seems unable to round out the rather substantial problems that have come to light.
- sifar 7y ago
  The opposition being dumb/timid doesn't make you right. >> It is just that the government now seems unable to round out the rather substantial problems that have come to light. This is the key. In the hype/fervour these were ignored and those who were pointing it were ridiculed. To paraphrase Boromir, One doesn't simply tinker with the economy. Yes you may brute force/propagandize your way (again) out of this, but in the end, the people have to bear it. And they still support the very people who inflict this damage which I cannot fathom why. It cuts across economic/class hierarchy.
  - geodel 7y ago
    > And they still support the very people who inflict this damage which I cannot fathom why. For 80% people life was always brutish and nasty in India. They are not going to have sympathy for rich asshole is not buying car due to GST or BS V1. In fact they would really support political class which made well-off people suffer.
alkonaut 7y ago
> a country wide citizenship register Ignoring the fantastical claims about "detention camps" (What on earth is the relation to citizenship registry?) > These experiments have never worked anywhere in the world What experiments? A citizenship register? What is the problem with a country having a registry of the people who live in the country? In most functioninig countries there are multiple such registries (tax authority, social security, ...).
- kamaal 7y ago
  Detention camps: https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/assam-detention-centre-inside-indias-1st-detention-centre-for-illegal-immigrants-after-nrc-school-ho-2099626 https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/assam-detention-centre-insid... http://www.newindianexpress.com/thesundaystandard/2019/sep/22/left-out-of-nrc-these-workers-are-helping-build-largest-detention-camp-to-feed-their-families-2037162.html http://www.newindianexpress.com/thesundaystandard/2019/sep/2... https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/assam-seeks-10-more-detention-centres-to-hold-illegal-foreigners/story-fHtbCWAQQRWR0op8XM7QuM.html https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/assam-seeks-10-mor... >>What experiments? A citizenship register? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuremberg_Laws https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuremberg_Laws Also look up to this thing called 'The Holocaust'. All the best.
  - alkonaut 7y ago
    I'm familiar with the holocaust. I'm not following how normal (census, social security etc) government people registries are connected to the detention centers, much less to the holocaust. My question was: isn't registries of people normal in most countries? There must be something about these registries that is bad, in the way they are created or (ab)used.
    - kamaal 7y ago
      >>I'm familiar with the holocaust. Doesn't look like it. >>I'm not following how normal (census, social security etc) government people registries are connected to the detention centers, much less to the holocaust. Because https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuremberg_Laws https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuremberg_Laws On April 12, 1933, the German government announced plans to conduct a long-delayed national census.[2]:54 The project was particularly important to the Nazis as a mechanism for the identification of Jews, Gypsies, and other ethnic groups deemed undesirable by the regime. Dehomag offered to assist the German government in its task of ethnic identification, concentrating upon the 41 million residents of Prussia.[2]:55 This activity was not only countenanced by Thomas Watson and IBM in America, Black argues, but was actively encouraged and financially supported, with Watson himself traveling to Germany in October 1933 and the company ramping up its investment in its German subsidiary from 400,000 to 7,000,000 Reichsmark—about $1 million.[2]:60 This injection of American capital allowed Dehomag to purchase land in Berlin and to construct IBM's first factory in Germany, Black charges, thereby "tooling up for what it correctly saw as a massive financial relationship with the Hitler regime".[2]:60 They even bought in state of the art technology of the day to track all those people: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IBM_and_the_Holocaust https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IBM_and_the_Holocaust Also... Holocaust didn't start at the concentration camps. It started way earlier. It's not easy to convince ordinary good people like you to support gassing millions of people. The Nazis had to first build a case(propaganda, brainwashing, racial pride, internal enemies, traitors etc etc kind of trash), then the filters(list(registers) of people whom to gas), processes, logistics and infrastructure to execute a project of that horrific scale. In this case there is an explicit intent in the form of citizenship amendment bill: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Citizenship_Amendment_Bill_2016 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Citizenship_Amendment_Bill_201... and then nationwide NRC and camps as to what should be done. And the whole surrounding social case of lynchings and pogroms.
sbmthakur 7y ago
> The government is planning a country wide citizenship register, on the same lines of Reich Citizenship Law, detention(concentration?) camps are already being built. That's flase. This Government didn't "plan" NRC. It was actually supposed to happen as per the Assam Accord which was signed by Rajiv Gandhi in 1985. Successive Congress Governments didn't act on it due to vote bank politics.[1] It was finally implemented in 2013 when the Supreme Court directed the Government to do so.[2] The current leadership came into power in 2014. 1. https://m.economictimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/rajiv-gandhi-didnt-pursue-assam-accord-as-it-would-have-impacted-congress-vote-bank-says-ram-pradhan-former-home-secretary/articleshow/65251638.cms https://m.economictimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/rajiv-g... 2. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Register_of_Citizens_of_India# https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Register_of_Citizen...
- sifar 7y ago
  You forget the part where there are now calls to implement it across other states also. This has become predictable. You use historical context to set a precedent and then extend it to everybody.
  - sbmthakur 7y ago
    I see that calls are being made in West Bengal which also borders Bangladesh. Not a surprise.
- kamaal 7y ago
  >>That's flase. This Government didn't "plan" NRC. They are now: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/government-will-implement-nrc-across-the-country-amit-shah/articleshow/71185805.cms https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-natio... https://www.livemint.com/politics/news/countrywide-national-register-of-citizens-will-it-work-1568887266398.html https://www.livemint.com/politics/news/countrywide-national-... This is recipe for disaster. Keep in mind, India has millions of people who lose homes, and documents during floods, or have to migrate because they are daily wage workers and can't find jobs, or have to escape pogroms, or lose documents due to other reasons. In fact most of the Indian public is poor and can't produce land records to prove anything, they don't own any land. They don't have passports because they haven't traveled or even had a need to.

by kamaal 7y ago

brainless 7y ago

Given the current grim plans of the government, I feel an economic slowdown is a necessary evil to wash out the government and force people to figure out what is important for the whole country.

sbmthakur 7y ago
Which grim plans you're talking about?
kamaal 7y ago
Economic slowdown is unlikely to change anything at all. If any thing it will only accelerate the problems. It's easy to create the illusion of internal enemies as ruse to execute these kind of projects. Also people in general do not feel the effects of economy in a way it could effect their deeply routed political and socially held beliefs. You have to just let it play out. The current government is here to stay. There are plenty of people who will vote for pride etc kind of things. And there is no shortage of such projects the government has in pipeline, the nearest one is that Babri Masjid one. Unfortunately that is very likely it will happen in the case of India. It will be bad, and it will ruin everything we know. But then this generation(people in age group 35+ years) will be through(That is if they escape these camps). The next generation will see their illusions of supremacy shatter. The generation after that is what will see the con as it is. The economy and social conditions would largely be irreversible by then. This is beyond what other mess they left with to clear. The other part is the way Indian economy is structured, you won't see a collapse in the very same sense as US recessions happen. The living conditions and quality of things in general, plus the unorganized structure of the economy won't allow a one big collapse to happen. It will be a gradual pain, year after year. Come every year there will be less things going around. Until too much is lost. That is how it will very likely play out in India's case.

uxcolumbo 7y ago

RE: The government is planning a country wide citizenship register, on the same lines of Reich Citizenship Law, detention(concentration?) camps are already being built. Can you expand on this? Why are these camps being built?

thewarrior 7y ago
In the state of Assam if you are unable to produce documents proving that your grandfather was an Indian citizen you can be stripped of citizenship and sent to a detention camp. There is talk of extending this to all of india.
kamaal 7y ago
To begin with: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Register_of_Citizens_of_India https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Register_of_Citizens_... These are live pictures of the camp being built: https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/assam-detention-centre-inside-indias-1st-detention-centre-for-illegal-immigrants-after-nrc-school-ho-2099626 https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/assam-detention-centre-insid... The ruling government has promised a nation wide building of such camps. Including in Mumbai, India's financial capital: https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/after-assam-citizens-list-plans-of-detention-centre-near-mumbai-sources-2097660 https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/after-assam-citizens-list-pl... Also there is this bill will be almost assuredly passed: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Citizenship_Amendment_Bill_2016 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Citizenship_Amendment_Bill_201... This is very similar to the Reich Citizenship Law. Which will first disenfranchise people, and then when they are stripped of citizenship. They are free to immigrate wherever they like(Which is basically nowhere, given most will be poor and no one will take them), or they can work till death in the labor camps, or.. oh well. The Holocaust.
sbmthakur 7y ago
It's typical fear mongering. It deals with Assam which is a state in India that has suffered decades of illegal immigration, so much that the locals have often resorted to violent agitations to protest. Failure of successive governments to act on the issue has further complicated the issue. The current Government is implenting NRC which was decided by a previous government. Those who can't prove their citizenship as per NRC will probably loose their citizenships.

pif 7y ago

> What happened in reality was a lot of capital intensive businesses suffered as an immediate aftermath. Can you please explain a bit, please? Isn't traceable capital (cheques, bank transfers, credit cards) as worth as liquid capital?

JumpCrisscross 7y ago
> Isn't traceable capital (cheques, bank transfers, credit cards) as worth as liquid capital? Theoretically, yes. In a country with unreliable power and wireless Internet infrastructure, no. More critically, there are switching costs with digitising an economy. Dropping those out of the blue on the whole country simultaneously will knock out businesses. Speaking as an outsider, demonetisation and the erosion of the RBI’s independence have been huge red flags for investing in rupees or in India. (Case in point: non-deliverable rupee trading in London recently surpassed spot trading in India.) That makes it harder for businesses to access international capital markets.
sifar 7y ago
I think the OP may be talking about MSME industries which employ and subcontract to people who rely on cash. The other point is you may have traceable capital, the other party may deal in cash out of necessity. Think maids, laborers, companies employing them, small time traders/contractors, transport. Sucking out cash disabled a whole bunch of them. Underneath, the formal economy is supported by the informal (read cash transactions) economy most of whom don't earn enough to be taxed. This was the doublespeak they got away with.

bakuninsbart 7y ago

> The Indian economy is a result of tons of hacks carefully evolved and put into place over decades. This is a key line for me. There will always be a point where a country has to replace the hacks that developed over a decade or two with a more comprehensive system. - This reform should have been implemented much more carefully, but it generally was a step in the right direction (In contrast to demonetisation). You can see this by looking at opposition parties: While they are all opposed to it in its current form, nobody is suggesting to go back to the old system. And some things certainly have improved as a result of the tax reform, too. - It is just that the government now seems unable to round out the rather substantial problems that have come to light.

sifar 7y ago
The opposition being dumb/timid doesn't make you right. >> It is just that the government now seems unable to round out the rather substantial problems that have come to light. This is the key. In the hype/fervour these were ignored and those who were pointing it were ridiculed. To paraphrase Boromir, One doesn't simply tinker with the economy. Yes you may brute force/propagandize your way (again) out of this, but in the end, the people have to bear it. And they still support the very people who inflict this damage which I cannot fathom why. It cuts across economic/class hierarchy.
- geodel 7y ago
  > And they still support the very people who inflict this damage which I cannot fathom why. For 80% people life was always brutish and nasty in India. They are not going to have sympathy for rich asshole is not buying car due to GST or BS V1. In fact they would really support political class which made well-off people suffer.

alkonaut 7y ago

> a country wide citizenship register Ignoring the fantastical claims about "detention camps" (What on earth is the relation to citizenship registry?) > These experiments have never worked anywhere in the world What experiments? A citizenship register? What is the problem with a country having a registry of the people who live in the country? In most functioninig countries there are multiple such registries (tax authority, social security, ...).

kamaal 7y ago
Detention camps: https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/assam-detention-centre-inside-indias-1st-detention-centre-for-illegal-immigrants-after-nrc-school-ho-2099626 https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/assam-detention-centre-insid... http://www.newindianexpress.com/thesundaystandard/2019/sep/22/left-out-of-nrc-these-workers-are-helping-build-largest-detention-camp-to-feed-their-families-2037162.html http://www.newindianexpress.com/thesundaystandard/2019/sep/2... https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/assam-seeks-10-more-detention-centres-to-hold-illegal-foreigners/story-fHtbCWAQQRWR0op8XM7QuM.html https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/assam-seeks-10-mor... >>What experiments? A citizenship register? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuremberg_Laws https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuremberg_Laws Also look up to this thing called 'The Holocaust'. All the best.
- alkonaut 7y ago
  I'm familiar with the holocaust. I'm not following how normal (census, social security etc) government people registries are connected to the detention centers, much less to the holocaust. My question was: isn't registries of people normal in most countries? There must be something about these registries that is bad, in the way they are created or (ab)used.
  - kamaal 7y ago
    >>I'm familiar with the holocaust. Doesn't look like it. >>I'm not following how normal (census, social security etc) government people registries are connected to the detention centers, much less to the holocaust. Because https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuremberg_Laws https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuremberg_Laws On April 12, 1933, the German government announced plans to conduct a long-delayed national census.[2]:54 The project was particularly important to the Nazis as a mechanism for the identification of Jews, Gypsies, and other ethnic groups deemed undesirable by the regime. Dehomag offered to assist the German government in its task of ethnic identification, concentrating upon the 41 million residents of Prussia.[2]:55 This activity was not only countenanced by Thomas Watson and IBM in America, Black argues, but was actively encouraged and financially supported, with Watson himself traveling to Germany in October 1933 and the company ramping up its investment in its German subsidiary from 400,000 to 7,000,000 Reichsmark—about $1 million.[2]:60 This injection of American capital allowed Dehomag to purchase land in Berlin and to construct IBM's first factory in Germany, Black charges, thereby "tooling up for what it correctly saw as a massive financial relationship with the Hitler regime".[2]:60 They even bought in state of the art technology of the day to track all those people: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IBM_and_the_Holocaust https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IBM_and_the_Holocaust Also... Holocaust didn't start at the concentration camps. It started way earlier. It's not easy to convince ordinary good people like you to support gassing millions of people. The Nazis had to first build a case(propaganda, brainwashing, racial pride, internal enemies, traitors etc etc kind of trash), then the filters(list(registers) of people whom to gas), processes, logistics and infrastructure to execute a project of that horrific scale. In this case there is an explicit intent in the form of citizenship amendment bill: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Citizenship_Amendment_Bill_2016 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Citizenship_Amendment_Bill_201... and then nationwide NRC and camps as to what should be done. And the whole surrounding social case of lynchings and pogroms.

sbmthakur 7y ago

> The government is planning a country wide citizenship register, on the same lines of Reich Citizenship Law, detention(concentration?) camps are already being built. That's flase. This Government didn't "plan" NRC. It was actually supposed to happen as per the Assam Accord which was signed by Rajiv Gandhi in 1985. Successive Congress Governments didn't act on it due to vote bank politics.[1] It was finally implemented in 2013 when the Supreme Court directed the Government to do so.[2] The current leadership came into power in 2014. 1. https://m.economictimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/rajiv-gandhi-didnt-pursue-assam-accord-as-it-would-have-impacted-congress-vote-bank-says-ram-pradhan-former-home-secretary/articleshow/65251638.cms https://m.economictimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/rajiv-g... 2. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Register_of_Citizens_of_India# https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Register_of_Citizen...

sifar 7y ago
You forget the part where there are now calls to implement it across other states also. This has become predictable. You use historical context to set a precedent and then extend it to everybody.
- sbmthakur 7y ago
  I see that calls are being made in West Bengal which also borders Bangladesh. Not a surprise.
kamaal 7y ago
>>That's flase. This Government didn't "plan" NRC. They are now: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/government-will-implement-nrc-across-the-country-amit-shah/articleshow/71185805.cms https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-natio... https://www.livemint.com/politics/news/countrywide-national-register-of-citizens-will-it-work-1568887266398.html https://www.livemint.com/politics/news/countrywide-national-... This is recipe for disaster. Keep in mind, India has millions of people who lose homes, and documents during floods, or have to migrate because they are daily wage workers and can't find jobs, or have to escape pogroms, or lose documents due to other reasons. In fact most of the Indian public is poor and can't produce land records to prove anything, they don't own any land. They don't have passports because they haven't traveled or even had a need to.