Everything hinges on what you mean by the very vague term "known path". Every technology more than a few years out requires currently unknown problems to be so

Everything hinges on what you mean by the very vague term "known path". Every technology more than a few years out requires currently unknown problems to be solved. Even, say, the next generation of processors will require many engineer-years to solve currently unsolved problems, and the generation after that is pretty opaque right now. Still, we can have confidence that they will be developed.