4 ms·

And I was not alive in the 1930's (absolutely the worst decade for major storms). But I know that things have not changes and they are certainly not more sever

by kls 7y ago

And I was not alive in the 1930's (absolutely the worst decade for major storms). But I know that things have not changes and they are certainly not more sever than the 1930's storms or for that matter the 1700's storms referenced in my families diaries. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Atlantic_hurricanes_in_the_18th_century https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Atlantic_hurricanes_in... Those where the two generations that saw the most sever storms. I am sorry but it's going to take a lot more data that the fact that the Keys got hit by a Cat 4 and the Bahamas got hit by a CAT 5 right near the peak of a cycle to convince me that this is somehow irregular when I have seen it every 8-9-10 years of my life on interval. Especially when I absolutely know there is science behind the 9 year cycle and have lived thru it. The article does a disservice because I live in the Keys and I absolutely know for a fact that the exodus is due to affordable housing. I talk to locals every day that are leaving, not a single one has mentioned the storm as a reason other than the fact that affordable housing has gotten even more expensive. The article is false on it's face no if and's or buts about it.

EdwardDiego 7y ago
> But I know that things have not changes and they are certainly not more sever than the 1930's storms or for that matter the 1700's storms referenced in my families diaries. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-08471-z.epdf?author_access_token=_9OqacbRYOHwslEUu3098tRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0M9qdk4C5vdts5LWxw9W-qg0U_ub3N4DZI4Xtz-bIk9W9KfkC6fOfEiNNoy1twMvawPWEaScUWcLz_m8se4lob-OadIiDSYz68K3d5FuPgxOg%3D%3D https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-08471-z.epdf?auth... > Both observed datasets show significant increases in tropical cyclone intensification rates in the Atlantic basin that are highly unusual compared to model-based estimates of internal climate variations. Our results suggest a detectable increase of Atlantic intensification rates with a positive contribution from anthropogenic forcing and reveal a need for more reliable data before detecting a robust trend at the global scale I'm not sure if you're expecting "Day After Tomorrow" sized storms or what, but the actual data points to changes in hurricane behaviour due to the warming climate.
- kls 7y ago
  Sorry just getting back to this thread: >>Here, we utilize two observational datasets to calculate 24-hour wind speed changes over the period 1982–2009 Paper was published in 2019 from what I can tell by references, 2007-2008 was the peak of the 9 year cycle. Why was the calmer cycle of 2010 thru 2015 excluded? They go one to reference publication from the 70's but exclude any data set from that time. It's a nice sliver of time to include, Mitch, Isabel, Ivan Hugo, Katrina, Rita, Wilma, Andrew, Dean ending with Felix in 07. We then enter the quite period of no major storms until 2016 with Mathew, so almost a decade of contrary data that was not included.

by kls 7y ago

EdwardDiego 7y ago

> But I know that things have not changes and they are certainly not more sever than the 1930's storms or for that matter the 1700's storms referenced in my families diaries. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-08471-z.epdf?author_access_token=_9OqacbRYOHwslEUu3098tRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0M9qdk4C5vdts5LWxw9W-qg0U_ub3N4DZI4Xtz-bIk9W9KfkC6fOfEiNNoy1twMvawPWEaScUWcLz_m8se4lob-OadIiDSYz68K3d5FuPgxOg%3D%3D https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-08471-z.epdf?auth... > Both observed datasets show significant increases in tropical cyclone intensification rates in the Atlantic basin that are highly unusual compared to model-based estimates of internal climate variations. Our results suggest a detectable increase of Atlantic intensification rates with a positive contribution from anthropogenic forcing and reveal a need for more reliable data before detecting a robust trend at the global scale I'm not sure if you're expecting "Day After Tomorrow" sized storms or what, but the actual data points to changes in hurricane behaviour due to the warming climate.

kls 7y ago
Sorry just getting back to this thread: >>Here, we utilize two observational datasets to calculate 24-hour wind speed changes over the period 1982–2009 Paper was published in 2019 from what I can tell by references, 2007-2008 was the peak of the 9 year cycle. Why was the calmer cycle of 2010 thru 2015 excluded? They go one to reference publication from the 70's but exclude any data set from that time. It's a nice sliver of time to include, Mitch, Isabel, Ivan Hugo, Katrina, Rita, Wilma, Andrew, Dean ending with Felix in 07. We then enter the quite period of no major storms until 2016 with Mathew, so almost a decade of contrary data that was not included.