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Snowden: Why I Decided Not To Delete My Old Internet Posts
- stallmanite 7y agoIt’s crazy to me how much weight the intelligence agencies seem to put on polygraph tests. Some enterprising huckster should sell them on some high-dollar phrenology gear.
- teddyh 7y agoPolygraph tests “work” because those being tested believe that they work. But people don’t believe in phrenology, so it wouldn’t work.
- mrlala 7y agoThis seems like the right answer. If the polygraph is able to essentially determine some sort of nervousness beyond normal, then someone who really believes they work and is not used to lying is going to be really damn nervous trying to lie and get caught up. But if someone knows what it really does, and then just knows you just have to be calm and say whatever you want, then it won't work.
- stallmanite 7y agoThese are supposed to be smart people. Why would they believe it works? Wouldn’t they google polygraph tests before showing up?
- domnomnom 7y agoWhat makes you so sure there isn't some sort of classified biomarker or correlate?
- stallmanite 7y agoIf it’s some other “secret” test then we’re no longer discussing the polygraph are we?
- close04 7y agoI agree with the first part but the second doesn't really follow. How will your belief that phrenology doesn't work influence the result of such a test (assuming you live in a world where such tests are even considered)? Phrenology doesn't allow the same "luxuries" as the polygraph because people are more or less stuck with the size and shape of their skull. Their guilt is exclusively in a chart not in their beliefs. Only thing that matters is if the people (judicial system) giving the test believe in it.
- stallmanite 7y agoOk but are applicants for intelligence jobs that naive/uninformed? I’m not particularly intelligent or informed but I’ve come across articles and books debunking polygraphy many times over the past 20 years. It’s not very obscure information. Scary to think that our “best and brightest” can’t be bothered to do cursory research. Also if I was facing a polygraph you can be damn sure I’d research it ahead of time. Are candidates not doing this?
- javagram 7y agoEven being aware that something is fake doesn’t necessarily mean that you believe it. There are placebo effectiveness studies where the participants know they are taking a placebo pill, for instance, and yet still feel better than a control group who isn’t offered any treatment. https://www.health.harvard.edu/blog/placebo-can-work-even-know-placebo-201607079926 https://www.health.harvard.edu/blog/placebo-can-work-even-kn...
- ChrisSD 7y agoThe fact that that polygraph tests don't work was well known certainly by the 90's (if not much much earlier). I struggle to believe anyone at all interested in the field wouldn't have some awareness of that, especially if they knew in advance they were going to be tested. And I'd dispute that they "work" even if the subject is unaware of the flaws. Studies have shown innocent people regularly react to assertions of criminality. It's basically left up to the individual tester to "interpret" whether or not they find the person to be lying. Sure sometimes it may inspire someone to admit to something they otherwise wouldn't. But these people are more likely to be largely honest people who made a mistake then hardened criminals or people actively working against the state.
- traderjane 7y agoHow is this different from a clinician who has to diagnose autism without even such a handy instrument.
- skissane 7y agoThe main test they use for ASD, the Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule (ADOS) – a Cochrane review [1] found that across 12 studies of diagnosis in preschoolers, the ADOS-1 [2] had a summary specificity of 0.8 – in other words, an average false positive rate of 20%. But, looking at the studies individually, the specificity ranged from 0.2 to 1.0 – in other words, the false positive rate ranged from 0% to 80% across the individual studies. And, that is in research contexts – there are good reasons to believe that the test will be less accurate in clinical use than in research contexts. In order to use the ADOS in research contexts, one has to demonstrate "research reliability", which is a process of scoring videos of the test being performed and comparing your scores with one's colleagues, repeating the process until you get sufficient agreement, and doing this again once every few months to make sure you stay in agreement. None of that rigour is required in clinical use. Added to that, I think in clinical contexts psychologists sometimes feel the urge to "put their thumb on the scales", they'll think "I know the test says this child doesn't have ASD, but I know they are struggling and an ASD diagnosis will get them funding that will help them, so I'll just fudge the numbers a bit to make it come out positive." Some psychologists who would never do that in research (it's scientific fraud) will do that sort of thing clinically. So, it seems very likely (if difficult to prove rigorously) that tests like the ADOS will have less accuracy in clinical contexts than research contexts, so however accurate they are measured to be in these studies, it is probably worse than that in real life. Sometimes, they suggest combining the ADOS with the ADI-R (Autism Diagnostic Interview-Revised), which is a structured interview of parents/caregivers. The combination is even called the "gold standard", with the suggestion that using the two in combination is more accurate than either alone. But, does the research actually support that belief? Well, that Cochrane review says they could only find one study (in preschoolers, they excluded studies of older individuals) which compared the accuracy of ADOS-1+ADI-R to ADOS-1 alone. It found a modest improvement in specificity (equivalent to false positive rate), at the cost of a modest worsening in sensitivity (equivalent to false negative rate), but the result wasn't statistically significant. So, this belief that using the combination improves accuracy doesn't appear to really be supported by the evidence. But, do you think clinicians tell parents any of this? In my personal experience, no. Either they are ignorant of the research, or they are keeping that knowledge close to their chests. How much faith would parents put in the results of the ADOS if they were told that in research contexts it had a 20% false positive rate on average? And that there is good reason to believe that in clinical contexts (their current context) the test probably performs worse than that? And that 20% is just an average over multiple studies, and in some individual studies its false positive rate was substantially higher? [1] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6513463/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6513463/ [2] the ADOS-1 has been replaced by a new version, the ADOS-2. At the time of that Cochrane review, there hadn't yet been any studies published on using the ADOS-2 in preschoolers, so it was excluded from their analysis. But, the fundamentals of the test haven't changed, so I doubt the ADOS-2 performs significantly better than the ADOS-1 did.
- aaronharnly 7y agoOne of my undergrad neuroscience professors used to like to say that phrenology was based on three hypotheses: 1. Cognitive capacities or traits are often centered in particular regions of the brain. 2. The degree of expression or strength of those capacities is correlated with the size of the region. 3. Those size differences can be detected from the outer surface of the skull. Only the third is false. (The first two are true to varying degrees for particular capacities or traits, of course...)
- whatshisface 7y agoThere's a fourth assumption missing, which is also wrong: that the localized traits are things like "honesty" or "good character" instead of things like "motor function in the upper right torso." My neurology textbook has a great figure from an old phrenology publication, it demonstrates the philosophical idea of there being brain regions for cognitive functions, but the partitions and labels are completely made up.
- LanceH 7y agoHow much weight do you think they put in polygraphs? The bulk of the work polygraphs do is encouraging people to admit past deeds. Things a person has done in the past are rarely disqualifying. Hiding them is. The polygraph encourages the candidate to be forthcoming. It's not just the polygraph they are facing, but the background investigation as well. How well do you can lie in front of an investigator (with or without a polygraph) when you know they have been talking to past associates/neighbors/friends? And what is your goal in lying? Getting one over on the stupid military complex. Maybe, just maybe, they aren't as stupid as you think they are.
- stallmanite 7y agoWhy use a known fraudulent technique? Explain why it’s more beneficial than just thoroughly vetting and interviewing/interrogating candidates. It’s embarrassing. Edit: It’s odd how you seem to be trying to make this a personal/emotional thing about wanting to lie to the MIC, etc. If I was a huge supporter of the intelligence community I’d want them to quit wasting time, money, and credibility on an ineffective scam. Also I explicitly stated that I’m not particularly intelligent so why you are painting me as a know-it-all for daring to question this practice. Enlighten me, please.
- mc32 7y agoWonder why they haven replaced it with fMRI? It can’t be worse.
- deleted 7y ago[deleted]
- nyolfen 7y agowhy do cops interrogate people instead of just investigating them?
- stallmanite 7y agoInterrogation is a real thing that works. Scientology e-meter type bs is not.
- unnouinceput 7y agoQuote: "Their most effective features were combined by a young Mark Zuckerberg into a site called FaceMash, which later became Facebook". Except this is not quite true. Zucky did FaceMash as a joke in campus. And he took quite the heat from Uni headmaster for it. And while later when he made "The Facebook" (yeah it had "the" in early days) probably took some lessons into it from FaceMash, it definitely did not evolved from it.
- user982 7y agoYou can read some of these posts and chat logs yourself: https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2013/06/exclusive-in-2009-ed-snowden-said-leakers-should-be-shot-then-he-became-one/ https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2013/06/exclusive-in-200... It's difficult to reconcile the image of Snowden the idealistic whistleblower with Snowden the right-wing Islamophobic security-state cheerleader who wanted leakers to be shot in the balls, from just a couple of years earlier. At least one of these is a manufactured persona, and I don't know which.
- __s 7y agoI don't see a disconnect. For one, people will overlook that he at least made an effort to whistle blow responsibly (& I've yet to see evidence that he failed in that effort). He didn't pass off his information to wikileaks I might think it's more plausible since I myself have gone from wildly left wing youth to libertarian left adult. Recognizing that faith in state is as bogus as faith in religion has great impact on one's political opinions & sometimes I like to dial things up on the internet too
- whatshisface 7y ago>At least one of these is a manufactured persona Why? Can't a person who is naturally prone to fervent dedication change from one ideology to another? I mean, for reference, look at a billion examples of religious converts, or for perhaps a better analogy to Snowden, look at /r/atheism.
- dTal 7y agoI don't think it's even a particularly large shift. Both "personas" demonstrate a large degree of in-group loyalty and a desire to hold "traitors" accountable, to the American state and the American people respectively. It's not hard to see how a realization that the state was "betraying" the people could have provoked his change in perception of "in-group".
- stordoff 7y agoI suspect part of the answer is in the first image : > That was intentionally incendiary[...]. Don't take it personally. :D [...] I just wanted to be clear. I'm not really an ugly american. I just play one on the intarwebs [sic]. A played-up personality on one side, and five years of changing beliefs, make this less of a contradiction IMO. Considering the decision to leak may also have triggered him to re-evaluate some of his other views, in a "What else was I lied to about?"/"What else was I wrong about?" sort of way. I don't see any reason why both couldn't be a true reflection of his views at the time.
- no_opinions 7y agoI don't share the sympathies of him being a hero. I'd wait until seeing all the information before making a judgment: There's conflicting stories on Edward Snowden's history. There's accusations acted out in the workplace and possibly embellished information about himself [1] There are things in the report that made it look like he planned out taking the data. That's the most damning information against him. If that didn't exist though, or was refuted, the story could be more sympathetic. There'd still be allegations in this summary he may expect to confront eventually, fibbing about his legs, cheating on an entrance exam, him misrepresenting his job positions as if he was more senior than he was, based on the report, he appears to self-aggrandize out of habit. In his upbringing he probably had events with parent/authority figures where he learned to lie to cover up his mistakes as a survival tactic. It's progressed to more than hiding, if he cheated on an entrance exam, some people may see that as fraudulent. He would allegedly break chain of command and email managers too high up when localized stuff happened, his story feels more like someone who was under a lot of pressure and needed more experience defusing issues in a professional environment. The leaks themselves: He didn't suggest improvement to the laws or regulations. He divulged the methods themselves, which other governments were probably doing anyway. Those other countries won't stop doing it, and they'd be happy if adversaries stopped. In his videos / posts, he never talks about how information could be used to prevent a terrorist attack, surveilling / interrupting a spy cell, gathering other valuable information for his country to better understand things. It's as if he had his wish, he'd throw away the whole system. It's like he can't discern consumer privacy (which is minimal in US), from protecting data from criminals (which is improving with TLS, 2FA, etc), from his own job. I wouldn't look to him as a role model for national security, civil liberties, or even basic ethics. [1] https://republicans-intelligence.house.gov/uploadedfiles/hpsci_snowden_review_declassified.pdf https://republicans-intelligence.house.gov/uploadedfiles/hps...
- jigglesniggle 7y agoInstead of attacking the content of the leaks or his claimed motives you are mainly attacking his character. It should be obvious that he planned to take the data. Taking it without a plan would be a good way for him to fail to accomplish anything. The main detraction I can see is that he leaked without regard to content, even considering he may not have had time to look over what he had taken (e.g. there is some top level stuff about drones that probably could have been redacted with a quick scan of the documents). He likely avoided commenting on improvements to remain apolitical; if he had not, it would be more ammunition for character assassination. Other countries may be doing roughly the same but most people's issue is not with the fact spying was occurring but that it was largely turned inward.[1] You do not know he would throw away the whole system. As previously mentioned, he likely had no time to figure out what documents were what and the impact of their release would be. In any case, he was acting as if he expected his own government to completely ignore the protections it had built in to defend its citizens. That some of the domestic programs he exposed were since cancelled due to public outrage is telling. --- [1]: Besides the unconstitutionality of inwards-facing spying it is also a red herring. We repeatedly see little in the way of domestic terrorism but because inward spying is so much easier to do it seems to make up a disproportionate amount of the information generated; information that is likely not representative of real threats.
- GhettoMaestro 7y agoI got a TS/SCI when I was 21. Filling out that SF-86 and hearing from tons of people I hadn't talked in 10+ years was eye opening. FWIW, if you are honest, they really don't hold much against you. This is someone who had legal run-ins in my younger years.