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Add Sweden as well, same story here. The national bank (Riksbanken) can not increase interest rates because it would have disastrous consequences for the large

Add Sweden as well, same story here. The national bank (Riksbanken) can not increase interest rates because it would have disastrous consequences for the large majority of over-extended loan takers. The low interest rates in their turn lead to the value of the Swedish currency plummeting. No matter what they do, a 'correction' is unavoidable - either the Swedish crown goes to junk status or the number of foreclosures and bankruptcies will skyrocket, followed by the collapse of the housing market, followed by the collapse of those banks which have to write down all those loans with real-estate backing.

WillPostForFood 7y ago
If you have a fixed rate loan, inflation is amazing. It is like free money. Inflation: bails out debtors, punishes savers Deflation: punishes debtors, rewards savers
- izend 7y ago
  Fixed rate loans are only 5 year max in Canada, so yes its great for 5 years but after that have to refinance at the new market rate.
  - WillPostForFood 7y ago
    Yes, good point. The standard 30 year fixed loan in the US is not common internationally.
ptr 7y ago
I’m not so sure that a rate hike would be devastating for Swedish loan takers; banks typically don’t give out loans to households that can’t handle large increases. Real estate prices would probably come down a bit, but people would hardly be forced to sell as long as they keep their income. People with large loans typically have large financial buffers. I’m also suspecting that politicians will step in with deductions, etc.
- Yetanfou 7y ago
  The Swedish bank (Riksbanken) disagrees: https://www.riksbank.se/en-gb/press-and-published/notices-and-press-releases/press-releases/2018/high-household-indebtedness-greatest-risk-in-the-swedish-economy/ https://www.riksbank.se/en-gb/press-and-published/notices-an... High and growing household indebtedness continues to pose the greatest risk in the Swedish economy. To come to grips with the problems associated with household indebtedness, it is, above all, important that measures are taken within housing and tax policy. At the same time, there are structural vulnerabilities and risks linked to the banking system in Sweden. It is therefore important that the banks have sufficient capital and insure themselves against liquidity risks in different currencies. As the risks linked to international developments are assessed to be greater now than in the spring, it is even more important to manage the risks and vulnerabilities in the Swedish financial system.

WillPostForFood 7y ago

If you have a fixed rate loan, inflation is amazing. It is like free money. Inflation: bails out debtors, punishes savers Deflation: punishes debtors, rewards savers

izend 7y ago
Fixed rate loans are only 5 year max in Canada, so yes its great for 5 years but after that have to refinance at the new market rate.
- WillPostForFood 7y ago
  Yes, good point. The standard 30 year fixed loan in the US is not common internationally.

ptr 7y ago

I’m not so sure that a rate hike would be devastating for Swedish loan takers; banks typically don’t give out loans to households that can’t handle large increases. Real estate prices would probably come down a bit, but people would hardly be forced to sell as long as they keep their income. People with large loans typically have large financial buffers. I’m also suspecting that politicians will step in with deductions, etc.

Yetanfou 7y ago
The Swedish bank (Riksbanken) disagrees: https://www.riksbank.se/en-gb/press-and-published/notices-and-press-releases/press-releases/2018/high-household-indebtedness-greatest-risk-in-the-swedish-economy/ https://www.riksbank.se/en-gb/press-and-published/notices-an... High and growing household indebtedness continues to pose the greatest risk in the Swedish economy. To come to grips with the problems associated with household indebtedness, it is, above all, important that measures are taken within housing and tax policy. At the same time, there are structural vulnerabilities and risks linked to the banking system in Sweden. It is therefore important that the banks have sufficient capital and insure themselves against liquidity risks in different currencies. As the risks linked to international developments are assessed to be greater now than in the spring, it is even more important to manage the risks and vulnerabilities in the Swedish financial system.