3 ms·

This guy is statistically correct, but reading stuff like this is like kryptonite for entrepreneurs. What this guy doesn't take into account is that in practic

This guy is statistically correct, but reading stuff like this is like kryptonite for entrepreneurs. What this guy doesn't take into account is that in practice, not everybody is equal. If you learn from the right people and think in the right ways, you can position yourself much better so that your odds are much greater than 2% or whatever random number he threw out there. It's lame when you see posts like this because all it does is make people want to quit when they are actually learning a lot and taking a chance and seeing what's possible. If you are enjoying what you are doing, keep on doing it for as long as you can. Clearly it's not easy, and most entrepreneurs would love to face the challenges that successful ones do.

teyc 16y ago
> this is like kryptonite for entrepreneurs. The truth hurts. Everybody wants to be a rockstar, but for most people, it's little gigs all the way. A proper understanding of what this means will lead to less heartbreak, although the dyed-in-the-wool entrepreneur won't care anyway.
garply 16y ago
I think, before I ran my first business this kind of thing would have been discouraging. But now that I have experience building and growing a business, accurate data is good. I think a seasoned entrepreneur will tend to look at grim data and say "OK, now I've got a grasp on this, admittedly bad, situation. How do I make things better?"
whyleyc 16y ago
I think you're misunderstanding the post - the author is not encouraging entrepreneurs to quit, but instead highlighting the importance of choosing your niche carefully. This seems like sensible advice to me - if you want to maximise your chances of success then pick an area to compete where the number of competitors is proportionally smaller or existing competitors have missed the point. Just because a market may seem boring doesn't mean the technology used to address it will be.
- Retric 16y ago
  To give an idea of how important this is. If twitter had a real competitor in the early days they would have been toast due to technical issues. However, because they where stumbling alone in the dark nobody was there to rob them of customers. Which game them time to grow large enough and competent enough to become a much harder target.
Maro 16y ago
I downvoted you because I disagree. We have so many "superman" posts here on HN, we do need the occasional "kryptonite" post.
brlewis 16y ago
This is not kryptonite. This is practice kryptonite.

teyc 16y ago

> this is like kryptonite for entrepreneurs. The truth hurts. Everybody wants to be a rockstar, but for most people, it's little gigs all the way. A proper understanding of what this means will lead to less heartbreak, although the dyed-in-the-wool entrepreneur won't care anyway.

garply 16y ago

I think, before I ran my first business this kind of thing would have been discouraging. But now that I have experience building and growing a business, accurate data is good. I think a seasoned entrepreneur will tend to look at grim data and say "OK, now I've got a grasp on this, admittedly bad, situation. How do I make things better?"

whyleyc 16y ago

I think you're misunderstanding the post - the author is not encouraging entrepreneurs to quit, but instead highlighting the importance of choosing your niche carefully. This seems like sensible advice to me - if you want to maximise your chances of success then pick an area to compete where the number of competitors is proportionally smaller or existing competitors have missed the point. Just because a market may seem boring doesn't mean the technology used to address it will be.

Retric 16y ago
To give an idea of how important this is. If twitter had a real competitor in the early days they would have been toast due to technical issues. However, because they where stumbling alone in the dark nobody was there to rob them of customers. Which game them time to grow large enough and competent enough to become a much harder target.

Maro 16y ago

I downvoted you because I disagree. We have so many "superman" posts here on HN, we do need the occasional "kryptonite" post.

brlewis 16y ago

This is not kryptonite. This is practice kryptonite.