4 ms·

I'm talking about aggregate figures for last year. Even looking at the figures on the website you linked, which provides production figures just over the last h

I'm talking about aggregate figures for last year. Even looking at the figures on the website you linked, which provides production figures just over the last hour, it shows 21% solar, 20% nuclear and 7% wind. The current plan is to maintain about 30% of the grid as gas, to provide backup, and then to deal with the carbon emissions using carbon capture and storage. The target is for a net zero electricity grid by 2030.

Reason077 7y ago
> "The target is for a net zero electricity grid by 2030." It's more like 2050 according to National Grid's forecasts. Carbon capture and storage is still a pipe-dream, really. The technology exists (arguably - not proven at scale) but not in an economically viable way. To put it another way, it's cheaper to avoid emitting carbon in the first place than to try and capture and store it.
- Brakenshire 7y ago
  I agree deploying CCS on that scale doesn’t seem very realistic, but that is the formal target of the government.
belorn 7y ago
aggregate figures look like they are moving towards 100% renewable, but look when renewable is at is bottom 12% (bottom level for the last 24hrs). That is when the so called "backup" gas grid burn brightest. 30% of the power usage or 30% of the capacity? A nation that has three times the capacity compared to power usage could produce 100% of the energy on gas and still claim a 33% capacity being based on gas. 2030 sounds good, but the average expected life time of a natural gas power plant is 50 years. I would hazard a guess that the most common type of new power plants being built in the UK (in terms of costs) is natural gas power plants. Is the expectation here that all that investment currently being poured into natural gas will just have to give it up in 10 years?
- pjc50 7y ago
  Essentially all the thermal plants are gas or "biomass" renewables. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_power_stations_in_England https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_power_stations_in_Engl... (note England only) It looks like they're all hoping for CCS to become a reality. You're right that it looks infeasible to just turn them all off by 2030. Currently the CCS is getting nowhere either. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-south-yorkshire-20137448 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-south-yorkshire-201374...
- Reason077 7y ago
  > "I would hazard a guess that the most common type of new power plants being built in the UK (in terms of costs) is natural gas power plants." Absolutely not. There have been almost no new gas power plants built in the UK since 2010 (the only new one is Carrington in 2016, a CCGT which replaced a closed coal plant and which had been under construction since 2008). Since several old gas power plants have closed, there has been a net decrease in gas capacity. And as far as I know, there are currently no gas power plants actively under construction anywhere in the UK. All new capacity in the UK is coming from: - Renewables - Nuclear (although this will probably be a net decrease, as old plants will close. Currently only Hinkley C is under construction, with several other projects on hold or cancelled) - Inter-connectors
  - belorn 7y ago
    That is good news. Looking at Germany, Poland, and US there is a lot of investment into natural gas power plants, and based on the real time data, I made my guess that similar process was ongoing in the UK. Just a random google gave this: https://www.smart-energy.com/industry-sectors/business-finance-regulation/uk-combined-cycle-plant-gas-turbine/ https://www.smart-energy.com/industry-sectors/business-finan... But I have no numbers to compare £700 million (possible times 3) with wind/solar investment for 2019.
    - Reason077 7y ago
      > https://www.smart-energy.com/industry-sectors/business-finance-regulation/uk-combined-cycle-plant-gas-turbine/ https://www.smart-energy.com/industry-sectors/business-finan... Yeah, that's disappointing. But development consent approval doesn't necessarily mean they will be built. There are some other CCGT projects that have been approved for a number of years, but construction hasn't started because the economics don't stack up right now. With the cancellation of several nuclear plants, others being retired over the next 5-15 years, and the ban on coal by 2025, there may indeed be a future deficit of gas generation capacity. It may be that these projects are being developed speculatively in anticipation of that.

Reason077 7y ago

> "The target is for a net zero electricity grid by 2030." It's more like 2050 according to National Grid's forecasts. Carbon capture and storage is still a pipe-dream, really. The technology exists (arguably - not proven at scale) but not in an economically viable way. To put it another way, it's cheaper to avoid emitting carbon in the first place than to try and capture and store it.

Brakenshire 7y ago
I agree deploying CCS on that scale doesn’t seem very realistic, but that is the formal target of the government.

belorn 7y ago

aggregate figures look like they are moving towards 100% renewable, but look when renewable is at is bottom 12% (bottom level for the last 24hrs). That is when the so called "backup" gas grid burn brightest. 30% of the power usage or 30% of the capacity? A nation that has three times the capacity compared to power usage could produce 100% of the energy on gas and still claim a 33% capacity being based on gas. 2030 sounds good, but the average expected life time of a natural gas power plant is 50 years. I would hazard a guess that the most common type of new power plants being built in the UK (in terms of costs) is natural gas power plants. Is the expectation here that all that investment currently being poured into natural gas will just have to give it up in 10 years?

pjc50 7y ago
Essentially all the thermal plants are gas or "biomass" renewables. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_power_stations_in_England https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_power_stations_in_Engl... (note England only) It looks like they're all hoping for CCS to become a reality. You're right that it looks infeasible to just turn them all off by 2030. Currently the CCS is getting nowhere either. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-south-yorkshire-20137448 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-south-yorkshire-201374...
Reason077 7y ago
> "I would hazard a guess that the most common type of new power plants being built in the UK (in terms of costs) is natural gas power plants." Absolutely not. There have been almost no new gas power plants built in the UK since 2010 (the only new one is Carrington in 2016, a CCGT which replaced a closed coal plant and which had been under construction since 2008). Since several old gas power plants have closed, there has been a net decrease in gas capacity. And as far as I know, there are currently no gas power plants actively under construction anywhere in the UK. All new capacity in the UK is coming from: - Renewables - Nuclear (although this will probably be a net decrease, as old plants will close. Currently only Hinkley C is under construction, with several other projects on hold or cancelled) - Inter-connectors
- belorn 7y ago
  That is good news. Looking at Germany, Poland, and US there is a lot of investment into natural gas power plants, and based on the real time data, I made my guess that similar process was ongoing in the UK. Just a random google gave this: https://www.smart-energy.com/industry-sectors/business-finance-regulation/uk-combined-cycle-plant-gas-turbine/ https://www.smart-energy.com/industry-sectors/business-finan... But I have no numbers to compare £700 million (possible times 3) with wind/solar investment for 2019.
  - Reason077 7y ago
    > https://www.smart-energy.com/industry-sectors/business-finance-regulation/uk-combined-cycle-plant-gas-turbine/ https://www.smart-energy.com/industry-sectors/business-finan... Yeah, that's disappointing. But development consent approval doesn't necessarily mean they will be built. There are some other CCGT projects that have been approved for a number of years, but construction hasn't started because the economics don't stack up right now. With the cancellation of several nuclear plants, others being retired over the next 5-15 years, and the ban on coal by 2025, there may indeed be a future deficit of gas generation capacity. It may be that these projects are being developed speculatively in anticipation of that.