Predicting the exact timing of a recession is very hard to do. You can say there are troubling signs but I would be extremely skeptical of somebody telling me

Predicting the exact timing of a recession is very hard to do. You can say there are troubling signs but I would be extremely skeptical of somebody telling me "Winter/2020" with a high degree of confidence. Meanwhile, there have been people pointing out troubling signs for several years now, and if you acted on their advice you'd have lost money, but nobody could have told you that for sure at the time, either.