4 ms·
1) Impending recession 2) Not enough IPOs so lots of investor interest to deploy capital into something( (thus driving up the price, making it more attractive
by mbesto 7y ago
1) Impending recession
2) Not enough IPOs so lots of investor interest to deploy capital into something( (thus driving up the price, making it more attractive for startups)
3) We're near the end of a 7~10 year cycle where lots of private VC capital was deployed and needs to be returned
4) 500 private investor maximum SEC rule
- theflyinghorse 7y agoCould you elaborate a bit on the cycle part. Why is it a cycle at all assuming money gets invested all the time instead of once-a-x-years?
- jimbob45 7y agoNot that dude but ~11 years ago was the recession so I'm guessing he's alluding to the fact that lots of investment money comes out of hibernation all at once when recessions begin to recede.
- pmart123 7y agoThe best place to learn about this is to check out the memos Howard Marks has written over the years.
- mbesto 7y agoWhen a VC raises a fund, they usually try to return the money in 7~10 years after they start deploying the capital to startups. In other words, they want to exit their position no later than 10 years and usually shoot for 5~7.
- mdorazio 7y agoSimplifying a lot, but... VC companies themselves raise money from investors to create a fund, which is then used to invest in startups. Generally, funds are raised with a specific timeline pitch for returns to the investors - often 7-10 years. In order to return money to investors, the investments in the fund have to actually pay money back to the VC firm - the best way to do this is via IPO (although acquisition is also an option). Due to overall market conditions, a glut of investment happened in the VC space 7-8 years ago (i.e. a bunch of funds were started), and those funds now need to get money back to the investors to prove a nice ROI, so there's a push to get the startups that were funded by the fund to exit one way or another.
- oarabbus_ 7y ago>1) Impending recession Eh I have heard this for the last 5 years
- nicksantamaria 7y agoAt least now there’s a bond yield inversion to give the prediction some substance.
- mbesto 7y agoLook, say what you want, but nearly everyone in the finance community (public equities, private equity, etc) knows this is coming. You're right, it's impossible to know when exactly, but there's hardly any doubt it's coming soonTM.
- oarabbus_ 7y agoBut everyone in the finance community has been saying that loudly since mid 2017 when we reached an 8 year bull market. As they say, economists have predicted 12 of the last 5 recessions.
- asdff 7y agoThings are even more shaky now with the trade war and the fed. SP500 has been plateauing since April.
- chrononaut 7y agoWouldn't an impending recession be particularly impactful on their business? I mean, if I had to buy stock now with knowledge that an impending down market is guaranteed I don't think it would be in the hospitality industry, unless I overestimate how much that industry is influenced by recessions.