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A very rational intelligent species might go out of their way to exterminate other intelligent species. The logic goes something like this: The resources of th

A very rational intelligent species might go out of their way to exterminate other intelligent species. The logic goes something like this: The resources of the galaxy may seem vast, but on a long enough timescale they are finite and will eventually become scarce. On such a long timescale, any other intelligent species has the potential to compete with us for those resources. If we lose that competition, we could be driven to extinction. Best to pre-empt competition now while we have the upper hand The Greg Bear novels The Forge of God and Anvil of Stars dealt with this scenario.

amayne 16y ago
I loved those novels. I think the thing that gets lost is that we usually imagine aliens as only incrementally more advance than us - like comparing an aircraft carrier to a Viking longboat. I think a species capable of interstellar travel is going to have a much greater technological advantage over us. So much so that we won't even look at the same things as resources. Our biggest ideas like Dyson spheres and space elevators are concepts based on an early 20th century way of looking at things. What's a civilization that can manipulate matter like energy (i.e. "matter" lasers) on a routine level or has advanced forms of nanotechnology or picotechnology capable of? I have no idea. If we start noticing stars vanishing because they're tapping them for energy, then I'll worry. Otherwise I don't think our rock is worth much other than entertainment value.
bluekeybox 16y ago
> If we lose that competition, we could be driven to extinction. Best to pre-empt competition now while we have the upper hand What's even scarier is that the most rational choice may be to pre-empt even if resource competition is unlikely to ever occur, just because pre-emption on the part of another civilization has a non-zero probability. Basically it's the Cold War logic except with no diplomacy and with the other side's strategy likely to be guided by a strong post-Singularity AI. Thinking through these scenarios can be scary as fuck, but since we're all still alive and well, it could be that we are truly alone.

amayne 16y ago

I loved those novels. I think the thing that gets lost is that we usually imagine aliens as only incrementally more advance than us - like comparing an aircraft carrier to a Viking longboat. I think a species capable of interstellar travel is going to have a much greater technological advantage over us. So much so that we won't even look at the same things as resources. Our biggest ideas like Dyson spheres and space elevators are concepts based on an early 20th century way of looking at things. What's a civilization that can manipulate matter like energy (i.e. "matter" lasers) on a routine level or has advanced forms of nanotechnology or picotechnology capable of? I have no idea. If we start noticing stars vanishing because they're tapping them for energy, then I'll worry. Otherwise I don't think our rock is worth much other than entertainment value.

bluekeybox 16y ago

> If we lose that competition, we could be driven to extinction. Best to pre-empt competition now while we have the upper hand What's even scarier is that the most rational choice may be to pre-empt even if resource competition is unlikely to ever occur, just because pre-emption on the part of another civilization has a non-zero probability. Basically it's the Cold War logic except with no diplomacy and with the other side's strategy likely to be guided by a strong post-Singularity AI. Thinking through these scenarios can be scary as fuck, but since we're all still alive and well, it could be that we are truly alone.