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global energy use is unfortunately growing quickly so the most likely outcome is that we continue the trend where new power sources don't replace dirty older so

global energy use is unfortunately growing quickly so the most likely outcome is that we continue the trend where new power sources don't replace dirty older sources, they live on beside them.

rstuart4133 7y ago
I don't see how that's possible, give the latest bids for solar + battery come in at under $33 / MW hour, ($20 / MW hour after subsidies): https://www.pv-magazine.com/2019/06/28/los-angeles-seeks-record-sub-two-cent-solar-power-price/ https://www.pv-magazine.com/2019/06/28/los-angeles-seeks-rec... $33 is under 1/2 the price of new coal generation. To the engineers who build this stuff it's all over - talking to them they seem to thing the long term price of generation and storage will drop to near 0.
rossdavidh 7y ago
Well, not likely in the case of coal, anyway: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/mar/28/global-collapse-in-number-of-new-coal-fired-power-plants https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/mar/28/global-c... "China and India have accounted for 85% of new coal power capacity since 2005, according to the Global Energy Monitor report. China permitted construction for the generation of less than 5GW of coal power in 2018, compared with 184GW in 2015. India permitted less than 3GW in 2018, compared with 39GW in 2010. India has added more solar and wind power capacity than coal over the last two years"
Obi_Juan_Kenobi 7y ago
Renewable and natural gas generation is approaching or undercutting the marginal cost of operating coal plants in many areas. This isn't accounting for amortized costs of coal plant construction, simply the fuel and operations cost. So coal is well on it's way out. China and India have all but stopped planning new plants. Natural gas is some ways away from being overtaken by renewables, but trends need only hold for a fairly short period for that crossover to occur. The future isn't all rainbows yet, but things do seem to be headed in the right direction. Economics strongly disfavor the carbon economy going forward.
- woodandsteel 7y ago
  Fossil fuels in general are on their way out. If someone doesn't believe it, they should do a google search on stranded assets.

global energy use is unfortunately growing quickly so the most likely outcome is that we continue the trend where new power sources don't replace dirty older sources, they live on beside them.

rstuart4133 7y ago

I don't see how that's possible, give the latest bids for solar + battery come in at under $33 / MW hour, ($20 / MW hour after subsidies): https://www.pv-magazine.com/2019/06/28/los-angeles-seeks-record-sub-two-cent-solar-power-price/ https://www.pv-magazine.com/2019/06/28/los-angeles-seeks-rec... $33 is under 1/2 the price of new coal generation. To the engineers who build this stuff it's all over - talking to them they seem to thing the long term price of generation and storage will drop to near 0.

rossdavidh 7y ago

Well, not likely in the case of coal, anyway: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/mar/28/global-collapse-in-number-of-new-coal-fired-power-plants https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/mar/28/global-c... "China and India have accounted for 85% of new coal power capacity since 2005, according to the Global Energy Monitor report. China permitted construction for the generation of less than 5GW of coal power in 2018, compared with 184GW in 2015. India permitted less than 3GW in 2018, compared with 39GW in 2010. India has added more solar and wind power capacity than coal over the last two years"

Obi_Juan_Kenobi 7y ago

Renewable and natural gas generation is approaching or undercutting the marginal cost of operating coal plants in many areas. This isn't accounting for amortized costs of coal plant construction, simply the fuel and operations cost. So coal is well on it's way out. China and India have all but stopped planning new plants. Natural gas is some ways away from being overtaken by renewables, but trends need only hold for a fairly short period for that crossover to occur. The future isn't all rainbows yet, but things do seem to be headed in the right direction. Economics strongly disfavor the carbon economy going forward.

woodandsteel 7y ago
Fossil fuels in general are on their way out. If someone doesn't believe it, they should do a google search on stranded assets.