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You are making the alarmists' point, whether you like it or not. The argument is not _just_ "things are getting worse on average", although that's true. It's th

You are making the alarmists' point, whether you like it or not. The argument is not _just_ "things are getting worse on average", although that's true. It's that the variability is increasing. A banner year for shad while five other species are on the brink of extinction is entirely consistent with this. (Same thing is currently happening with Maine lobster.) One year we'll get a dozen bad hurricanes in the Atlantic, then see nothing for three more. In Europe this year we had one of the coldest springs on record. Less than a month later we had a record-breaking heat wave. And then another. It's all of a piece. People seem pathologically unable to understand the concept of variance, which is really a shame, because it's the variance that's going to bite us in the end. It's far more worrisome than a simple downward trend. A few really, _really_ extreme climate events are going to cause destruction and suffering on a scale we have not experienced before. There will be hand wringing and cries of "nobody saw this coming" -- which is true, because long-tail events are by definition hard to predict. Then maybe people will wake up. Though it will be far too late.

fencepost 7y ago
it's the variance that's going to bite us in the end. It's far more worrisome than a simple downward trend. A few really, _really_ extreme climate events are going to cause destruction and suffering on a scale we have not experienced before. There will be hand wringing and cries of "nobody saw this coming" The analogy I use to describe it is speakers, speaker cones in particular. Anyone in their 20s or older who's ever been into electronics, cars or music is likely to have experienced speaker distortion and possibly blown speakers, and most of them as children or teens have watched cones bouncing. Climate change is like turning the volume up and putting more energy into the system. The cones don't just go higher, they go deeper as well and at some point you start getting distortion. If you can turn the volume down at that point you can avoid damage, but if you keep pushing it higher you'll eventually get lasting damage, and eventually it may be catastrophic. Once the coil is off or the cone has ruptured, turning the volume down isn't going to get you anywhere close to where you started. We're still in the distortion stage now with some material fatigue setting in, but the people in control of the volume are listening to a crowd yelling to "Pump! Pump!" ... Or perhaps it's "Jump!"

fencepost 7y ago

it's the variance that's going to bite us in the end. It's far more worrisome than a simple downward trend. A few really, _really_ extreme climate events are going to cause destruction and suffering on a scale we have not experienced before. There will be hand wringing and cries of "nobody saw this coming" The analogy I use to describe it is speakers, speaker cones in particular. Anyone in their 20s or older who's ever been into electronics, cars or music is likely to have experienced speaker distortion and possibly blown speakers, and most of them as children or teens have watched cones bouncing. Climate change is like turning the volume up and putting more energy into the system. The cones don't just go higher, they go deeper as well and at some point you start getting distortion. If you can turn the volume down at that point you can avoid damage, but if you keep pushing it higher you'll eventually get lasting damage, and eventually it may be catastrophic. Once the coil is off or the cone has ruptured, turning the volume down isn't going to get you anywhere close to where you started. We're still in the distortion stage now with some material fatigue setting in, but the people in control of the volume are listening to a crowd yelling to "Pump! Pump!" ... Or perhaps it's "Jump!"