"So - go for it - tell me, right now, which of his many predictions are "obviously going to happen." and which are "Totally foolish". " I'm not claiming to be

"So - go for it - tell me, right now, which of his many predictions are "obviously going to happen." and which are "Totally foolish". " I'm not claiming to be able to make long term predictions. I'm also not egomaniacal enough to think that anyone will care enough to come back and check my post in 5/10 years :) I'm just saying to accurately evaluate how good his correct predictions were, we would need a benchmark of predictions of other people. I think there's a lot of value to reading Kurzweils writing, and its entertaining. I just object to people who pick out the things he generously got right, and massively overestimate his success rate, including him. He recently announced an 86% success rate. 1) He shouldnt put sharp numbers quantifying things that have been loosely defined, and sloppily evaluated. 2) He has no-where near that, in my opinion. I dont want to go through 2 in detail, but I think its fairly clear from reading his prediction summary, or http://us.penguingroup.com/static/packages/us/kurzweil/excerpts/chap9/ch9botframe.htm http://us.penguingroup.com/static/packages/us/kurzweil/excer... that while he got a good few things right, he got a lot wrong too.