We've had mathematical models of change for over two thousand years. We have reliable, precise ones for astrological changes. As far as I know, we have none rel

We've had mathematical models of change for over two thousand years. We have reliable, precise ones for astrological changes. As far as I know, we have none related to ecology or other complex systems that have proven capable of making long-term predictions. I never said we should ignore any prediction. My calculation is purely Bayesian: how much prior trust should you place in a model (or class of models) with no long-term track record of success?