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Pinterest is next https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&geo=US&q=%2Fm%2F0h3tm0f https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&g

Pinterest is next https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&geo=US&q=%2Fm%2F0h3tm0f https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&ge...

quaquaqua1 7y ago
Wow, interesting, that map is really correlated with my (biased) perception of where "percentage of people under 40 who are married" is highest
- jchallis 7y ago
  Idaho’s killer app
- sk5t 7y ago
  Also, cold winters; scrapbooking; applique vests
mmaunder 7y ago
That actually looks catastrophic. Stock price doesn't reflect it yet. Shadenfreude isnt my thing but this looks bad and insiders must already be aware.
- quaquaqua1 7y ago
  Can't believe the market is currently valuing Pinterest at 16B
  - mmaunder 7y ago
    Guess these guys didnt get the memo. https://www.google.com/amp/s/seekingalpha.com/amp/article/4291436-pinterest-next-100-billion-platform https://www.google.com/amp/s/seekingalpha.com/amp/article/42... To be clear, I dont trade stocks and couldn't care less which way this moves. Just seems like the Google trends data is a bit of information asymmetry that the market hasn't caught on to, yet.
    - dangxiaopin 7y ago
      From the article you quoted (call me cynical): "Disclosure: I am/we are long PINS. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha)"
- dangxiaopin 7y ago
  >insiders must already be aware The lockup period does not expire till mid-october. I read their 10-Q and found this gem about "user re-authentication": "Users MAUs at quarter-end were 300 million, representing growth of 30% year-over-year. This represents an acceleration in user growth, in part due to one-time changes to SEO algorithms and user re-authentication that impacted Q218. International growth drove the majority of global MAU expansion."
  - mmaunder 7y ago
    I'm sorry, I'm an idiot. Wtf does "user re-authentication" mean? They're counting MAUs as number of logins and not number of active users?
    - dangxiaopin 7y ago
      I can only interpret that they are talking about logged in users with accounts. The users were logged out during the pre-IPO and that resulted in some double counting in their second post IPO 10-Q. I was researching this because I asked myself a general question: "Why is the stock price of non dividend paying companies correlated to the performance at all?"
      - mmaunder 7y ago
        Ah. Amazon is a good case study for you. Didn't pay dividends for a decade or more. Reinvested everything. Pissed off analysts. And killed it. In that world as long as you can keep delivering growth, you're good. Miss once and you're toast.
        kgwgk 7y ago
        > Didn't pay dividends for a decade or more. Amazon has never paid a dividend.
thedailymail 7y ago
Looks very similar to the trajectory of Facebook (although very different in scale). https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&geo=US&q=%2Fm%2F02y1vz https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&ge...
- dangxiaopin 7y ago
  FB owns Instagram https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&geo=US&q=%2Fm%2F0glpjll https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&ge... and WhatsApp. I would argue that the market is a bit more rational there.
pcurve 7y ago
Their finance doesn't look bad. Revenue trended up. Flush with cash. Making money. The 5 year chart look bad, but they've stabilized in the past couple years and it looks like they've found way to actually remain profitable.
- dangxiaopin 7y ago
  I'd think that at P/E of 65 you'd expect some future growth?
foldingmoney 7y ago
Google trends is probably not a good way to assess Pinterest. Want to browse Pinterest? Open the app. Want to get Pinterest? Go to the App Store. Heard someone say 'pinterest' but don't know what it means? Search google. Your link is only showing that last one.
- dangxiaopin 7y ago
  Yet Google Trends exactly reflects (exhibits?) Google Play data of our app that has 37 million registered users.
  - Deimorz 7y ago
    And for "Facebook", Google Trends shows a 71% drop worldwide over the last 5 years. Their Q2 2019 earnings showed a 20% worldwide growth in monthly users over the last two years alone. "YouTube" shows a 45% drop over 5 years. "Google" itself shows a 60% drop over 5 years. Google Trends can't reliably tell you anything useful about a site's growth or activity. I'm not denying it correlates with your specific app, but that doesn't mean it will work for everything, and it clearly works very poorly for popular services.
    - dangxiaopin 7y ago
      And how do you know this is all wrong? At least I get to look at our app internal analytics and compare. Do you have access to their internal analytics? Also contrast this to https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&geo=US&q=%2Fm%2F0glpjll https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&ge... . Instagram is 9 years old
    - wolco 7y ago
      I honestly feel those numbers are correct. Remember when everyone was sharing youtube videos. Or when you would sit and endless watch. I feel like that faded about 45%. Google dropping makes sense. I visit less sites and the search results are not that great for discovery. Most sites I visit by typing a letter in the browser and auto completing. Facebooks earnings raising 20% makes sense as more people are advertising on it. I notice 71% less people less original activity.. photos/status updates more groups/ads filling the gap. I spent 71% less time on and reduced my daily visits. We're always chasing yesterday's tail. I bet twitter's numbers are down.
m0zg 7y ago
FWIW (sample size of one) my wife switched from Pinterest to Instagram. Same shit, arguably better interface.

Pinterest is next https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&geo=US&q=%2Fm%2F0h3tm0f https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&ge...

quaquaqua1 7y ago

Wow, interesting, that map is really correlated with my (biased) perception of where "percentage of people under 40 who are married" is highest

jchallis 7y ago
Idaho’s killer app
sk5t 7y ago
Also, cold winters; scrapbooking; applique vests

mmaunder 7y ago

That actually looks catastrophic. Stock price doesn't reflect it yet. Shadenfreude isnt my thing but this looks bad and insiders must already be aware.

quaquaqua1 7y ago
Can't believe the market is currently valuing Pinterest at 16B
- mmaunder 7y ago
  Guess these guys didnt get the memo. https://www.google.com/amp/s/seekingalpha.com/amp/article/4291436-pinterest-next-100-billion-platform https://www.google.com/amp/s/seekingalpha.com/amp/article/42... To be clear, I dont trade stocks and couldn't care less which way this moves. Just seems like the Google trends data is a bit of information asymmetry that the market hasn't caught on to, yet.
  - dangxiaopin 7y ago
    From the article you quoted (call me cynical): "Disclosure: I am/we are long PINS. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha)"
dangxiaopin 7y ago
>insiders must already be aware The lockup period does not expire till mid-october. I read their 10-Q and found this gem about "user re-authentication": "Users MAUs at quarter-end were 300 million, representing growth of 30% year-over-year. This represents an acceleration in user growth, in part due to one-time changes to SEO algorithms and user re-authentication that impacted Q218. International growth drove the majority of global MAU expansion."
- mmaunder 7y ago
  I'm sorry, I'm an idiot. Wtf does "user re-authentication" mean? They're counting MAUs as number of logins and not number of active users?
  - dangxiaopin 7y ago
    I can only interpret that they are talking about logged in users with accounts. The users were logged out during the pre-IPO and that resulted in some double counting in their second post IPO 10-Q. I was researching this because I asked myself a general question: "Why is the stock price of non dividend paying companies correlated to the performance at all?"
    - mmaunder 7y ago
      Ah. Amazon is a good case study for you. Didn't pay dividends for a decade or more. Reinvested everything. Pissed off analysts. And killed it. In that world as long as you can keep delivering growth, you're good. Miss once and you're toast.
      - kgwgk 7y ago
        > Didn't pay dividends for a decade or more. Amazon has never paid a dividend.

thedailymail 7y ago

Looks very similar to the trajectory of Facebook (although very different in scale). https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&geo=US&q=%2Fm%2F02y1vz https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&ge...

dangxiaopin 7y ago
FB owns Instagram https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&geo=US&q=%2Fm%2F0glpjll https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&ge... and WhatsApp. I would argue that the market is a bit more rational there.

pcurve 7y ago

Their finance doesn't look bad. Revenue trended up. Flush with cash. Making money. The 5 year chart look bad, but they've stabilized in the past couple years and it looks like they've found way to actually remain profitable.

dangxiaopin 7y ago
I'd think that at P/E of 65 you'd expect some future growth?

foldingmoney 7y ago

Google trends is probably not a good way to assess Pinterest. Want to browse Pinterest? Open the app. Want to get Pinterest? Go to the App Store. Heard someone say 'pinterest' but don't know what it means? Search google. Your link is only showing that last one.

dangxiaopin 7y ago
Yet Google Trends exactly reflects (exhibits?) Google Play data of our app that has 37 million registered users.
- Deimorz 7y ago
  And for "Facebook", Google Trends shows a 71% drop worldwide over the last 5 years. Their Q2 2019 earnings showed a 20% worldwide growth in monthly users over the last two years alone. "YouTube" shows a 45% drop over 5 years. "Google" itself shows a 60% drop over 5 years. Google Trends can't reliably tell you anything useful about a site's growth or activity. I'm not denying it correlates with your specific app, but that doesn't mean it will work for everything, and it clearly works very poorly for popular services.
  - dangxiaopin 7y ago
    And how do you know this is all wrong? At least I get to look at our app internal analytics and compare. Do you have access to their internal analytics? Also contrast this to https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&geo=US&q=%2Fm%2F0glpjll https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&ge... . Instagram is 9 years old
  - wolco 7y ago
    I honestly feel those numbers are correct. Remember when everyone was sharing youtube videos. Or when you would sit and endless watch. I feel like that faded about 45%. Google dropping makes sense. I visit less sites and the search results are not that great for discovery. Most sites I visit by typing a letter in the browser and auto completing. Facebooks earnings raising 20% makes sense as more people are advertising on it. I notice 71% less people less original activity.. photos/status updates more groups/ads filling the gap. I spent 71% less time on and reduced my daily visits. We're always chasing yesterday's tail. I bet twitter's numbers are down.

m0zg 7y ago

FWIW (sample size of one) my wife switched from Pinterest to Instagram. Same shit, arguably better interface.