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but it will unlikely lead to a military confrontation You're saying if the CIA does so in Russia, it would lead to military confrontation? Ed Snowden is a car

but it will unlikely lead to a military confrontation You're saying if the CIA does so in Russia, it would lead to military confrontation? Ed Snowden is a card to play for Russia but a quite small one. Actually, the biggest risk he is facing is the same as Julian Assange. At some point, a change in policy in Russia (eg getting something back in return from the US) can lead to him being extradited to the U.S. As for the U.S, I think it's not a big deal as well. His damage is done. All the incentive the U.S has in this case is to make example of him. There is little political incentive for politicians to follow. Maybe some PR for the president who manages to get him back, but aside from that, Ed Snowden is not a big incentive for anyone at this point. No way anyone is going to war for him.

ivanhoe 7y ago
Russia doesn't give a shit about Snowden, of course, but Putin cares a lot about his own image of power. Such event would be a huge slap in the face for both the country and him personally - it would make Russia look weak and that's of great importance for their internal politics and Putin's ability to keep the public support and stay in power. So it wouldn't go unpunished, you can bet on that, he would be forced to demonstrate the power somehow... not for Snowden, but because of his voters...
- fabrika 7y ago
  Putin is free not to tell anything to his voters, as always. See Smolenkov, a high profile spy who safely left Russia. Voters don’t care much.
  - jdsully 7y ago
    Someone voluntarily leaving (even illegally) is not in the same class as public figures being kidnapped off the street. One is an individual matter and the other makes everyone feel unsafe.
- emilsedgh 7y ago
  Again, the biggest problem for Ed Snowden is when Putin decides to hand over Snowden. Snowden is a card with an expiration date. Sooner or later Russia will try to use it to get something back.

ivanhoe 7y ago

Russia doesn't give a shit about Snowden, of course, but Putin cares a lot about his own image of power. Such event would be a huge slap in the face for both the country and him personally - it would make Russia look weak and that's of great importance for their internal politics and Putin's ability to keep the public support and stay in power. So it wouldn't go unpunished, you can bet on that, he would be forced to demonstrate the power somehow... not for Snowden, but because of his voters...

fabrika 7y ago
Putin is free not to tell anything to his voters, as always. See Smolenkov, a high profile spy who safely left Russia. Voters don’t care much.
- jdsully 7y ago
  Someone voluntarily leaving (even illegally) is not in the same class as public figures being kidnapped off the street. One is an individual matter and the other makes everyone feel unsafe.
emilsedgh 7y ago
Again, the biggest problem for Ed Snowden is when Putin decides to hand over Snowden. Snowden is a card with an expiration date. Sooner or later Russia will try to use it to get something back.