7 ms·

He would be safer though in Russia. It is far easier for the CIA to kidnap him illegally out of France, if they fail to extradite him legally. France might pr

He would be safer though in Russia. It is far easier for the CIA to kidnap him illegally out of France, if they fail to extradite him legally. France might protest such an event a lot but it will unlikely lead to a military confrontation. The US would never likely do this in Russia.

johnchristopher 7y ago
What would be the consequences of the US illegally deporting Snowden from France like that? What would be printed in the newspapers?
- jessaustin 7y ago
  "Snowden goes missing while hiking in Alps; assumed to be buried in glacier crevasse"
  - AstralStorm 7y ago
    Presuming he does something stupid like that, and this cover would ruin US goal of making an example.
    - jessaustin 7y ago
      He wouldn't have to choose to go hiking, or even venture within 100 km of the mountains, in order for that headline to be reported. USA has plenty of whistleblower examples anyway. We've tortured Chelsea Manning for years. Others who have been punished, to varying degrees, include Bill Binney, Reality Winner, and John Kiriakou. Presumably there are others of whom we're not aware. These people have done really small things to rouse the ire of the TLAs. How could they punish Snowden in a proportional fashion, anyway?
- jacquesm 7y ago
  Oh there would be terrible outrage. And then people would get on with their lives. Whistleblowers get thrown under the nearest bus, it is a law of nature.
- RodgerTheGreat 7y ago
  "CIA apprehends former NSA contractor charged with espionage" would be a factually correct headline.
mc32 7y ago
If they really wanted to they could. They exfiltrated a spy[1] who was reluctant to leave in 2017. [1]https://www-m.cnn.com/2019/09/09/politics/russia-us-spy-extracted https://www-m.cnn.com/2019/09/09/politics/russia-us-spy-extr...
- jessaustin 7y ago
  Exfiltration is different than kidnapping. Presumably the alleged spy wanted to leave Russia, in order to avoid extensive torture. Snowden wouldn't leave Russia just to receive extensive torture.
  - mc32 7y ago
    But yet somehow this involuntary thing would be possible in France, yet apparently unlikely in Russia? It’s not as though once in France he’d realize, “Yeah, I don’t mind, let them kidnap me, I’ll make it easier on them here in France.”
    - jessaustin 7y ago
      In most locations, one doesn't have a choice when faced with armed police. In France, those police who are on USA payroll don't have to be subtle about that employment. In Russia, they really do have to be subtle.
    - cf141q5325 7y ago
      Unfortunately there is a list of European nations who were either complicit in CIA kidnappings (forced renditions) or where the criminal persecution for such events was ineffective lacking the political will to offend the US. Take this case for example https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abu_Omar_case https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abu_Omar_case
deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
emilsedgh 7y ago
but it will unlikely lead to a military confrontation You're saying if the CIA does so in Russia, it would lead to military confrontation? Ed Snowden is a card to play for Russia but a quite small one. Actually, the biggest risk he is facing is the same as Julian Assange. At some point, a change in policy in Russia (eg getting something back in return from the US) can lead to him being extradited to the U.S. As for the U.S, I think it's not a big deal as well. His damage is done. All the incentive the U.S has in this case is to make example of him. There is little political incentive for politicians to follow. Maybe some PR for the president who manages to get him back, but aside from that, Ed Snowden is not a big incentive for anyone at this point. No way anyone is going to war for him.
- ivanhoe 7y ago
  Russia doesn't give a shit about Snowden, of course, but Putin cares a lot about his own image of power. Such event would be a huge slap in the face for both the country and him personally - it would make Russia look weak and that's of great importance for their internal politics and Putin's ability to keep the public support and stay in power. So it wouldn't go unpunished, you can bet on that, he would be forced to demonstrate the power somehow... not for Snowden, but because of his voters...
  - fabrika 7y ago
    Putin is free not to tell anything to his voters, as always. See Smolenkov, a high profile spy who safely left Russia. Voters don’t care much.
    - jdsully 7y ago
      Someone voluntarily leaving (even illegally) is not in the same class as public figures being kidnapped off the street. One is an individual matter and the other makes everyone feel unsafe.
  - emilsedgh 7y ago
    Again, the biggest problem for Ed Snowden is when Putin decides to hand over Snowden. Snowden is a card with an expiration date. Sooner or later Russia will try to use it to get something back.

johnchristopher 7y ago

What would be the consequences of the US illegally deporting Snowden from France like that? What would be printed in the newspapers?

jessaustin 7y ago
"Snowden goes missing while hiking in Alps; assumed to be buried in glacier crevasse"
- AstralStorm 7y ago
  Presuming he does something stupid like that, and this cover would ruin US goal of making an example.
  - jessaustin 7y ago
    He wouldn't have to choose to go hiking, or even venture within 100 km of the mountains, in order for that headline to be reported. USA has plenty of whistleblower examples anyway. We've tortured Chelsea Manning for years. Others who have been punished, to varying degrees, include Bill Binney, Reality Winner, and John Kiriakou. Presumably there are others of whom we're not aware. These people have done really small things to rouse the ire of the TLAs. How could they punish Snowden in a proportional fashion, anyway?
jacquesm 7y ago
Oh there would be terrible outrage. And then people would get on with their lives. Whistleblowers get thrown under the nearest bus, it is a law of nature.
RodgerTheGreat 7y ago
"CIA apprehends former NSA contractor charged with espionage" would be a factually correct headline.

mc32 7y ago

If they really wanted to they could. They exfiltrated a spy[1] who was reluctant to leave in 2017. [1]https://www-m.cnn.com/2019/09/09/politics/russia-us-spy-extracted https://www-m.cnn.com/2019/09/09/politics/russia-us-spy-extr...

jessaustin 7y ago
Exfiltration is different than kidnapping. Presumably the alleged spy wanted to leave Russia, in order to avoid extensive torture. Snowden wouldn't leave Russia just to receive extensive torture.
- mc32 7y ago
  But yet somehow this involuntary thing would be possible in France, yet apparently unlikely in Russia? It’s not as though once in France he’d realize, “Yeah, I don’t mind, let them kidnap me, I’ll make it easier on them here in France.”
  - jessaustin 7y ago
    In most locations, one doesn't have a choice when faced with armed police. In France, those police who are on USA payroll don't have to be subtle about that employment. In Russia, they really do have to be subtle.
  - cf141q5325 7y ago
    Unfortunately there is a list of European nations who were either complicit in CIA kidnappings (forced renditions) or where the criminal persecution for such events was ineffective lacking the political will to offend the US. Take this case for example https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abu_Omar_case https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abu_Omar_case

deleted 7y ago

[deleted]

emilsedgh 7y ago

but it will unlikely lead to a military confrontation You're saying if the CIA does so in Russia, it would lead to military confrontation? Ed Snowden is a card to play for Russia but a quite small one. Actually, the biggest risk he is facing is the same as Julian Assange. At some point, a change in policy in Russia (eg getting something back in return from the US) can lead to him being extradited to the U.S. As for the U.S, I think it's not a big deal as well. His damage is done. All the incentive the U.S has in this case is to make example of him. There is little political incentive for politicians to follow. Maybe some PR for the president who manages to get him back, but aside from that, Ed Snowden is not a big incentive for anyone at this point. No way anyone is going to war for him.

ivanhoe 7y ago
Russia doesn't give a shit about Snowden, of course, but Putin cares a lot about his own image of power. Such event would be a huge slap in the face for both the country and him personally - it would make Russia look weak and that's of great importance for their internal politics and Putin's ability to keep the public support and stay in power. So it wouldn't go unpunished, you can bet on that, he would be forced to demonstrate the power somehow... not for Snowden, but because of his voters...
- fabrika 7y ago
  Putin is free not to tell anything to his voters, as always. See Smolenkov, a high profile spy who safely left Russia. Voters don’t care much.
  - jdsully 7y ago
    Someone voluntarily leaving (even illegally) is not in the same class as public figures being kidnapped off the street. One is an individual matter and the other makes everyone feel unsafe.
- emilsedgh 7y ago
  Again, the biggest problem for Ed Snowden is when Putin decides to hand over Snowden. Snowden is a card with an expiration date. Sooner or later Russia will try to use it to get something back.