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When I was in university and had access to scientific papers, I would often read papers on AGW. I remember reading several times that IPCC models were conservat
by jcranberry 7y ago
When I was in university and had access to scientific papers, I would often read papers on AGW. I remember reading several times that IPCC models were conservative and the msot bullish models in their assessment reports hadn't predicted the rate at which the north pole is melting.
- chrisco255 7y agoCurrently the Arctic is sitting at about 2007 levels: https://neptune.gsfc.nasa.gov/csb/index.php?section=234 https://neptune.gsfc.nasa.gov/csb/index.php?section=234
- perfunctory 7y agoComparing two random years is one way to look at it. Another is to look at the trend: https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/arctic-sea-ice/ https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/arctic-sea-ice/
- chrisco255 7y agoAll the trends start in the 70s, which was the coldest decade of the 20th century. That doesn't say much at all.
- jcranberry 7y agoDoesn't seem to be that way according to the global temperature tab one click away. https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/ https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/
- chrisco255 7y agohttps://youtu.be/8455KEDitpU https://youtu.be/8455KEDitpU you should watch this
- graeme 7y agoDoes that account for thickness? I could be wrong but I thought that was also a factor in ice extent: some previously permanent ice melted and came back thinner. Also, 2007 had a much smaller extent than the recent average. Only 2012 was worse.
- jcranberry 7y agoLooks like it's below the 2007 curve for the most part. It also seems like the 10 year averages seem to have a clearer trend than yearly averages.